I said yesterday that there were a few underdog possibilities in China on Friday, but I chose the wrong one in Damir Dzumhur, while there were odds-against victories for Lloyd Harris, Alexander Bublik, and Albert Ramos.
It’s been a tricky week for punters betting in Zhuhai, with the tournament being played for the very first time and the conditions here under the roof in high humidity have done for several players this week.
Gael Monfils was the latest to struggle to breathe in Zhuhai under the roof and a few of the players now have complained about how slow the conditions are, with Roberto Bautista Agut describing them as “very slow.”
That’s in stark contrast to Chendgu, which is playing quite fast by modern standards and we saw that a big server who’s serving well has a fair advantage when Lloyd Harris took down Joao Sousa on Friday.
Harris said after beating Sousa: “I think the courts are good for the big-servers, especially when the sun is out.”
Indeed, Alexander Bublik smashed down 35 aces against Grigor Dimitrov on Friday (Harris 27 versus Sousa) and my initial prediction that a big-priced player could make the final in Chengdu will be coming to fruition – unfortunately it won’t be one of mine.
Bublik was a 50-1 chance, while lucky loser Harris was a 40-1 shot as recently as Thursday and one of them will be in the final on Sunday.
It’ll be warm again and good for the big servers in Chengdu on Saturday, with 27C heat in the shade, little wind, and 50% humidity, while over in Zhuhai it’ll be hot again at 31C and about the same humidity, but under a roof.
With that in mind I’m happy to take a chance on a set one tie break in the opening match of the day in Chengdu when Alexander Bublik and Lloyd Harris clash at around 06:30 UK time.
The way that this pair have been serving so far this week a breaker seems inevitable, with Harris holding 92.3% of the time in his three main draw matches and Bublik 89.4% of the time in his three.
The 2-1 about this one going to a set one breaker looks the bet, with the 5.20 about Bublik nicking it 7-6 also of interest, given that he’s got a better tie break record on outdoor hard so far at main level than Harris (4-4 against 2-5).
The Kazakh also has that bit more experience at this stage of main level events and beat Harris in their only career clash, which was a while ago now and probably not that relevant.
The second semi final in Chengdu looks set to be a tight one, with both Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno Busta in good touch this week and I wouldn’t be surprised if tie breaks featured in this one as well.
Indeed, when this pair met at the US Open two years ago all three sets were won on breakers by PCB and what stands out with Carreno Busta this week in terms of his stats is his superb 63% of second serve points won.
Both of these players have held serve even more often this week than Harris and Bublik (95% Shapo and 94% PCB) so the 3.90 on a set one tie break is appealing here, too.
Shapo’s return game has been improving (21.1% breaks this year on outdoor hard at main level) but he’s only managed 12.8% breaks in Chengdu this week and in two matches against PCB this pair have played 0.80 tie breaks per set.
That second career clash was on clay in Rome this year when PCB was coming back from injury and they even managed to play a breaker in that one, so tie breaks looks the way to go in Chengdu on Saturday.
It's also worth mentioning Shapo's poor 0-6 win/loss record in main level semi finals, but he'll break his duck at some point and why not on Saturday?
In Zhuhai, Adrian Mannarino has got directly into Tokyo now, so he doesn’t have to worry about missing qualies there and Albert Ramos now has a special exemption into Beijing’s main draw.
I must admit I didn’t fancy either of these two in slow conditions under a roof (particularly Mannarino) this week, but one of 50-1 chance Mannarino and 100-1 shot Ramos will have proved me right in terms of their being a big-priced outright finalist in Zhuhai as well.
Their career series has gone as you’d expect it to have done, with Ramos winning all three on clay and Mannarino taking all three of their hard court meetings, but in these slow, very humid conditions I couldn’t take Mannarino even as slight underdog.
They’ve played only one tie break against each other in 15 sets of tennis and no tie breaks is an option, but not at 1.61 for me.
The last match of the day on Saturday is an intriguing one and it might well be a tight affair, with Alex De Minaur and Roberto Bautista Agut likely to play a fair few punishing rallies in the Zhuhai heat and humidity in slow conditions.
It’s a first career clash and one likely to be settle on fitness and energy levels on the day, with De Minaur saying after his win over Borna Coric: “I know it's hot, I know it's humid, I know it's slow, very long rallies, but I still have to go out there and do everything in my power to keep fighting for every point.”
He’s certainly been doing that this week and he’s shown a fine attitude, but RBA has been taking it seriously as well, arriving a day early after leaving Laver Cup on the Sunday to help with the jetlag.
RBA may just have the legs on De Minaur, who’s played back-to-back three setters now and that’s perhaps reflected in the prices, with RBA a 1.64 shot for this first career meeting.
Again, it’s not an appealing price and I prefer siding with breakers in Chengdu to anything in Zhuhai.
Best Bets
0.5 points win over 12.5 games in set one of Bublik/Harris at 3.0
0.5 points win over 12.5 games in set one of Carreno Busta/Shapovalov at 3.90
