We were rather unfortunate on Monday in Auckland with our one wager when Lorenzo Sonego failed to hold serve at *5-6 to force a tie break against Hubert Hurkacz.
The Italian was one point away from landing us a 4.60 winner before faltering after seven successive games in the set prior to that one hadn’t even got as far as deuce.
Anyone who chanced my list of potential underdogs would have had a good day though, with Mikael Ymer, Benoit Paire and Ugo Humbert all winning on the day. I just wasn’t wild about the price on Ymer, while Humbert’s injury issue put me off him and Benoit is Benoit.
On the outright front I was right about Alex De Minaur not being up to it this week physically, as the favourite in Adelaide withdrew from the tournament, but my eventual pick to oppose him with in the top half, Gilles Simon, fell to Jeremy Chardy.
Hurkacz and Dan Evans both progressed in straight sets though and Vasek Pospisil goes for us on Tuesday against Joao Sousa, while Evans is back in action against the unpredictable Alexander Bublik in what could be a dangerous one for the Brit.
There are 11 matches in total on the card on Tuesday in Adelaide and Auckland and it’s expected to be another hot one in Adelaide (31C in the shade and with a strong breeze at 20kph), while rain is possible in Auckland, where it’s set to be just 20C and with up to 30kph winds – not unusual for Auckland.
Jordan Thompson, who faces Albert Ramos, has won six of his last nine matches against left handers (all his main level career matches versus lefties have been played on grass or outdoor hard) and there’s been a tie break in six of the last seven (the one with no breaker had two 7-5 sets in it).
He started the season with a weak loss to Miomir Kecmanovic in Doha, but Ramos has lost his last four matches this corresponding week of the tour (in Sydney and Auckland) and all in straight sets.
Tommy Paul is 5-10 win/loss versus top-62 ranked opposition at main level in his career so far, with no wins (0-7) since the summer of 2017, while his opponent Aljaz Bedene has been in fine serving form lately.
Bedene has held serve 90.4% of the time in his last 10 main level matches (won six/lost four) and with it being a bit slower this year on these Green Set courts I’d favour the Slovenian over Paul here.
If we’re looking for some weird stats in a career match-up we need look no further than the one between Adrian Mannarino and Andreas Seppi in which all nine of their clashes have been done and dusted in straight sets – and with not a single tie break played.
I’m not sure how fit Seppi is at the moment after having the trainer out in a loss to 209th ranked Zhe Li at the Bendigo Challenger last week, but he does have a good record at this stage of the season.
Manna’s counterpunching style often makes Seppi force the play, which the Italian isn’t keen on and as a result the Frenchman has won three of their last four meetings, but he’s a touch short for me here at 1.68.
Radu Albot vs Marco Cecchinato
Albot is in no sort of form at the moment and I wonder if it’s worth either backing the tie break or the over 2.5 sets in his clash with Marco Cecchinato?
Albot’s lost 11 of his last 15 matches and while Cecchinato’s win/loss record on outdoor hard is pretty weak he usually either wins a set or plays a breaker.
That’s happened in seven of his last nine main level outdoor hard matches and nine of his last 15 main level outdoor hard court matches have featured at least one tie break.
Indeed, Cecchinato has only lost 12 of his 30 main level outdoor hard court matches in straight sets (40%) while he’s only won two in straight sets, so over 2.5 sets at 2.50 is not bad.
Sixteen of those 30 matches (53%) have featured at least one tie break, too, so if we’re going on pure maths then it should be 1.89 about tie break played and it’s not as if he’s been playing Isner and Opelka every time either – he’s played only one match against my ‘big servers’ on outdoor hard.
Often rushed on a hard court, Cecchinato has his issues on this surface, but it’s slower this time around on a Green Set surface and on a damp day in Auckland he may well find the pace of play more to his liking from an opponent not overly blessed with power, such as Albot.
Of his poor 2019, Cecchinato said: “It was a difficult year, especially from a mental point of view. I had started the season well and in reality I never played badly. I lost many matches in the third set, with strong players like Schwartzman and Chardy [yes, he really said Chardy] – people who win ATP tournaments. But mistrust and trust are decisive in tennis. You lose 3-4 matches and all of a sudden you don't enter the court calm any more."
With Albot struggling, too, I like the over 2.5 sets in this one for a bit of value at 2.50.
Of the Brits in action on Tuesday, I’m hopeful that the wind will help Dan Evans a bit, with his slice very effective in such conditions, as he showed in Delray Beach last season.
That could be key against the big serve of Alexander Bublik and it’ll be interesting to see who copes best in the heat. Bublik said the other day: “It’s hot – really hot! Especially in these conditions, you don’t really care about how you play, you only care if you survive.”
Kyle Edmund’s power should, in theory, make it too tough on a hard court for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to use his own aggressive game plan to good effect and this looks a fair opportunity for Edmund to start getting back on track.
So, one small bet again for me today at what looks a decent price.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Albot/Cecchinato at 2.50
