Well, I said that day one could very well be one for the underdogs, and so it proved, with no fewer than nine players originally priced up as betting underdogs winning on the day.
Several of those were on my list of potential dog winners: Gunneswaran, Auger-Aliassime, Ramos, Andreozzi, and Marterer, while the one I fancied the most, Federico Delbonis, lost an epic battle in a final set tie break.
The windy conditions made life tough for Delbonis, but from 4-2 up in set one and looking good he lost six in a row as the unforced errors racked up and his serve went to pot (perhaps due to the wind with his high ball toss).
It’s set to be very windy again on Friday, with speeds of around 37kph forecast, peaking in mid-afternoon.
We have another 16 matches from round one to look at on day two and one I like at the prices starts at around 02:00 UK time.
Mackenzie McDonald vs Joao Sousa
McDonald has played some decent, attacking tennis of late, but I wouldn’t back him as favourite to outlast the super fit Sousa in slow conditions like these at Indian Wells.
Sousa is tough to beat on a slow hard court, as Alexander Zverev found out here a year ago when he lost to the Portuguese, who then went on to take Milos Raonic to a final set.
The Portuguese, as he often does, performed poorly on the Golden Swing on the clay, but he came here a year ago having lost five of his previous six matches and went on to play well at Indian Wells and make the last-16 in Miami.
In any case, I prefer his game on the slow hard courts to the clay, and he’s sure to make this a real physical test for McDonald, who wilted badly against Radu Albot in Delray Beach a few weeks back.
I’m not convinced that his fitness is up to besting Sousa in these conditions and his record shows he’s much more suited to quicker surfaces: grass and faster hard courts.
He’s played only eight career matches on clay at all levels and lost six of them and lost his only main level match here at Indian Wells (to Vincent Millot back in 2016) so for me he’s very much unproven in slow conditions.
It’s also Sousa that has slightly the better service hold/break total on outdoor hard at main level over the past 12 months (98.4 against 96.8).
The timing of this match at (not before) 18:00 local time when it’s getting cool (around 14C) should make for slow conditions, while hitting winners in the wind will prove tough, so for me McDonald looks a questionable favourite here.
The second one that I like is to side with another dogged and industrious clay courter in Jaume Munar as slight underdog against Alexei Popyrin.
This one is set for the quicker afternoon session, but the balls will fly around then and it’ll be very windy at that time (according to the forecast) so I much prefer the more measured and consistent approach of the Spaniard here.
He should be used to the wind in Majorca and while Popyrin has shown a fair level at times he looks another one better suited to fast conditions and he’s only 2-6 win/loss (92.5 hold/break total) in his eight career matches on outdoor hard at main level.
Munar in his 10 main level career matches on outdoor hard can beat those numbers (96.2 hold/break total) but this is more about conditions and for me they suit Munar.
The other ones I feel have a fair shot of success as betting underdogs on Friday include Dan Evans, Nicolas Jarry, Donald Young and Roberto Carballes Baena.
Evans showed his skills in windy conditions on a slow hard court when very nearly winning Delray Beach as a qualifier and he’s set to face Stan Wawrinka during the peak wind time of between 13:00 and 15:00 local time today.
It may be tough for Stan to hit winners in such conditions and the slow night time start given to Frances Tiafoe may not be helpful for him against the hit and miss Chilean Jarry either.
Tiafoe is struggling at the moment and has a weak record here (1-3 win/loss) so if Jarry can find his form (he’s been poor lately) he’s got a chance there when it’s set to be cool at 13C and less windy.
Young has been struggling for a while now and it must seem a long time ago that he took down Andy Murray here, but he has a good record and a heavily spun lefty forehand that in theory should do well in these conditions.
Opponent Hubert Hurkacz does have fair form on clay though, so he may be able to cope a bit better than some others with the playing conditions.
Ryan Harrison’s decent record at Indian Wells (11-9 win/loss and 100.8 hold/break total) is largely made up of matches from 2011-2012 and he hasn’t won back-to-back matches here since.
The last two years here he’s lost to Delbonis and Dzumhur and while he crushed Carballes Baena on grass last season these are very different conditions and in evening conditions perhaps RCB can frustrate Harrison (something that’s not too hard to do).
Best Bets
1 point win Sousa to beat McDonald at 2.32
1 point win Munar to beat Popyrin at 2.0
