We didn’t quite get the overs in the match between Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik on Thursday, which was frustrating, as there wasn’t a huge chasm between the pair overall.
There was nothing in it after 10 games, but one poor service game from Bublik led to four games in a row for Rublev and the match was all but over in that short spell.
In the end it was the other underdog that I talked about on Thursday, Aljaz Bedene, who, after letting me down last week against Vasek Pospisil, scored a much bigger win a week later in taking down Stefanos Tsitsipas.
I talked about Bedene’s serving lately indoors and again he went unbroken, won 81% of his first serve points, hit 0.82 aces per game and took both break chances he had, while fending off all five he faced. We were a week too early with Bedene last week, it seems.
We move on to Friday’s quarter finals now and it’s been an impressive start to the week from our outright in Buenos Aires, Casper Ruud, who crushed Roberto Carballes Baena 6-1, 6-0 to make the last eight, where he’ll face Dusan Lajovic on Friday.
It’ll be a first career meeting between the pair and based on the respective form of Ruud and Lajovic this week so far, where Lajovic struggled against Pedro Martinez, there’s good reason to be optimistic about this one.
Our man certainly has some impressive stats in the past 12 months on clay at main level, with 83% holds of serve and 27.3% breaks of serve on the red dirt, which equates to a 110.3 total.
Lajovic’s numbers are decent, too, with 78.6% holds and 27.4% breaks for a 106 total and 1.44 does seem a bit short on Ruud, with his great form this week perhaps influencing the prices more than it should.
I’m not so sure that Thiago Monteiro should be as short as he is today either against lucky loser Pedro Sousa, who has a decent level in him on his day, while both Diego Schwartzman and Guido Pella had tough matches last night in which both were severely tested.
In Rotterdam they start at around 12:00 UK time when Jannik Sinner, who landed a maiden top-10 win over David Goffin on Thursday, takes on Pablo Carreno Busta in a classic match-up of offense versus defence.
The young Italian played well against Goffin, but the Belgian did lead both sets by a break and was on one his poor serving days, with seven double faults in 12 service games.
He’s never faced PCB before, but you get the feeling that this match is very much on Sinner’s racquet and if he plays something like he did when he crushed Alex De Minaur in the Next Gen final in November he could win this with something to spare.
Sinner overwhelmed De Minaur that day and this is a similar sort of match-up on an indoor hard court in that PCB will try and extract errors from Sinner with consistency and movement, but will it be enough?
If I were backing Sinner here – and I think it's worth the risk – I’d be tempted to go with the 2-0 at 3.45, as he may not prevail if it becomes a battle of physicality against the Spaniard.
Five of Sinner’s last six wins at main level have come in straight sets and if we’re risking him today the bigger priced wager looks the one.
Gael Monfils reportedly said he felt sick after his win over Gilles Simon on Thursday and on that basis could this be a good opportunity for Dan Evans against an opponent who may be getting his excuses in early after a long week last week?
As I’ve mentioned a few times it rarely pays to listen to a single word that Monfils utters, as he’ll probably either deny it or come put running around like a spring chicken (or both) on Friday.
It doesn’t seem a particularly great match-up for Evans on paper, with Monfils not one to shy away from a cagey encounter and succumb to changes in pace, height and depth and slices, as Karen Khachanov was.
The second match of the day in Rotterdam at (not before) 13:30 looks a possible one for an opening set tie break or overs in when Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aljaz Bedene clash.
If we look at their serving stats in the last 12 months on indoor hard at main level (FAA has only played four matches) we find that Auger-Aliassime has held serve 88% of the time and Bedene a very impressive 92.2% of the time.
What puts me off this bet, viable as it seems to be, is that Bedene somehow has avoided playing anywhere near as many breakers as a player that holds that often would be expected to (he’s only broken serve 15.5% of the time).
In his 12 main level matches on indoor hard in the last year Bedene has only played a breaker in three of them and only five tie break sets in 28.
Only two of his last seven opening sets indoors have gone past 10 games and none have gone to a breaker, so I’ll pass on that bet.
On form I’d favour FAA here after the Canadian reverted to his old racquet following a poor start to the season and of that, Auger-Aliassime said:
“Basically I just went back to my old racquet. I guess old habits are always good. I came back just before the Australian Open and just felt right at home with last year's racquet.”
In New York I’d be tempted to take a chance on Miomir Kecmanovic in what’s been a very good match-up for the Serb against the left-handed Frenchman Ugo Humbert so far in their career series.
Kecmanovic is yet to drop a set against Humbert, who was brushed aside by Kecmanovic the last time they met, and the 2.14 about the Serb to enjoy this match-up again and take down Humbert on this slowish New York surface is a fair option.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Kyle Edmund was beaten by Soon Woo Kwon, with the Brit seemingly finding some better form this week, but I’m not sure he can be trusted to keep it up and Kwon is more than capable of taking advantage if Edmund’s a bit wayward.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Sinner to beat Carreno Busta 2-0 at 3.45
0.5 points win Kecmanovic to beat Humbert at 2.14
