It was a case of the right working out but the wrong result (again) in Marrakech on Friday, with Gilles Simon and Taro Daniel playing out the attritional grind that I expected, but Daniel faltered in set two.
Holding two break points to go a double break 4-1 ahead, Daniel failed (took only 3 of 15 break chances in the match) and ended up donating his serve away at *5-6 to foil those on the over 2.5 sets or Simon 2-1 wagers.
Gilles Simon vs Pablo Andujar
I think Andujar has taken all my luck this week, with the Spaniard advancing by way of walkover into the semis after being in trouble against both Federico Delbonis and Philipp Kohlschreiber.
And I couldn’t back Simon to beat him as favourite today on the evidence of Simon’s struggle against Daniel that could easily have ended in a straight sets loss – Daniel was a break up in both sets against the Frenchman.
There was very little in that match, as expected, with Simon as he often does, struggling to impose himself on an opponent that doesn’t come at him with pace – and he’ll have a similar issue today with Andujar.
Despite winning in straight sets on Friday it was still a two-and-a-half hour grind, the first game alone taking 15 minutes, which Andujar must have been delighted to watch while enjoying a much-needed day off.
I mentioned ahead of the Daniel match about Simon’s struggles against the grinders of the game and Andujar is another that’s given him problems in the past: the Spaniard winning both of their clay clashes (one by way of a second set retirement).
Andujar was underdog in both of those matches and it’s hard to back Simon as favourite today, given that he’s lost 11 of his last 14 matches against Spaniards on clay.
Two of three that he won were against players ranked 410 and 78 and the other was against a then 46th ranked Pablo Carreno Busta in Madrid.
In 15 main level matches on clay (7-8 win/loss) against the players I have listed as ‘baseline grinders’ Simon has only won 48.5% of his second serve points and held serve just 66% of the time.
Daniel simply lacked the guile and a bit of belief on the big points on Friday, but he created 15 break chances in two sets and limited Simon to only 43% of second serve points won.
I’d expect a confident Andujar with a day’s rest in his legs to do that bit better than Daniel and the Spaniard seems fair value as slight underdog.
Simon’s lost seven of his last nine when priced up between 1.70 and 1.80 at main level and Andujar looks the wager on Saturday.
I said yesterday that Benoit Paire was a tempting underdog against Jaume Munar and Paire brushed Munar aside easily, but who can foresee when the combination of Paire’s serve, forehand and brain will all work together on the same day?
I’d suggest not even Paire knows that, but what we do know is that he has a terrible record in semi finals and a weak record against fellow Frenchman, such as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Paire is 5-14 win/loss in main level semi finals (won one of his last 11) and 1-3 as favourite, so big matches aren’t his forte, while he’s lost 11 of his last 17 at main level versus Frenchmen (4-15 versus Tsonga, Simon and Gasquet).
Mentally, I can’t see him having the belief that he can go out and beat Tsonga in a semi final and I’m nowhere near as tempted to back him today as I was yesterday.
At the US Men’s Clay Court Championship in Houston there’s only one match we can look at today, after rain stopped play again late on, and that’s Sam Querrey versus Christian Garin.
Regular readers will need no reminding of the last semi final that Querrey played, as we were on him outright in New York and he lost as a 1.27 favourite to Brayden Schnur.
If the forecast is correct we’re set for more unsettled weather in Houston on Saturday, with thunderstorms expected until mid-afternoon and rain would put me off Querrey against a good clay courter as Garin is these days.
Querrey has an 18-18 record in main level semi finals and 3-0 on clay, while Garin is unproven against big servers, having faced only one of the players on my list – and he lost that to Reilly Opelka on American clay.
Querrey has held serve 96.9% of the time this week and with Garin so inexperienced against facing a barrage of big serves (Querrey hit 1.77 aces per game yesterday) I’m not tempted into backing the Chilean at 2.10.
That said, Querrey is hardly Mr Reliable and has lost 11 of his last 14 main level matches when priced up between 1.70 and 1.80, so I’ll pass on this one.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Andujar to beat Simon at 2.12
