We emerged from Tuesday’s play on the Asian swing of the ATP Tour with a couple of winners, while it perhaps should have been even better, as one or two possibles got away.
Andy Murray edged the tight affair I was expecting in his clash with Matteo Berrettini in Beijing in two tie breaks, while Juan Ignacio Londero went the scenic route to covering the handicap against Jordan Thompson in another narrow success.
Radu Albot was one that I suggested that I opted against in the end and Albot beat Filip Krajinovic in two sets, while upsets that I didn’t really fancy in Reilly Opelka over Taylor Fritz and Taro Daniel over Borna Coric also happened in Tokyo.
Outrights, Fabio Fognini and Diego Schwartzman came through tough three setters as well, so a pleasing day overall.
There are seven matches on the card in Tokyo on Wednesday when it’s set to be another decent days for tennis, with not much wind, 28C heat in the shade and around 50% humidity.
It’ll be another hot and sunny one in Beijing, with 30C heat in the shade, not a lot of wind and humidity at around the 40% mark.
Three of Tokyo’s seven matches on Wednesday feature players that were involved in finals on Sunday (Alex De Minaur, Adrian Mannarino and Pablo Carreno Busta) and that makes them tricky to judge.
The two underdogs that look appealing on day three at the Japan Open for me are Gilles Simon and Yoshihito Nishioka, while in Beijing Jeremy Chardy and Fabio Fognini might reward value seekers at the China Open.
We’re already on Fognini outright, so I don’t feel the need to be stressed by Fogna again on Wednesday, having watched him almost blow a 6-1 lead in the final set tie break against Mikhail Kukushkin on Tuesday.
So, I’ll take the two underdogs in Tokyo, starting at around 07:00 UK time with Gilles Simon, who loves the challenge of facing a big server on a lively court and this time it’s Reilly Opelka that’s the man to beat.
I was surprised that Opelka was a comfortable winner over Taylor Fritz, but it was a below par Fritz, who looks to be struggling with a left knee issue, so I’m not reading much into that result.
The lively conditions are a fairly obvious plus for Opelka, but so too are they for Simon, who for me gets a lot more out of his game on quicker surfaces, as he showed again at Queen’s this year by making the final on slick, low-bouncing early season grass.
We know that the likes of David Goffin have commented on these Tokyo courts being quite low bouncing and quick and that lower bounce is perhaps something that Simon can exploit against a very tall opponent.
The French veteran has beaten plenty of big servers in his time, including Kevin Anderson, Sam Querrey (twice), Matteo Berrettini and Marin Cilic, all either this season or last, so he still has the skills to dismantle their games when he’s on form.
Simon looked in pretty good nick in his opening round match against a very different opponent in Pablo Andujar and I think it says a lot that Andujar beat Simon easily on clay earlier this season and Simon was able to completely reverse the form on a fast hard court.
We’ll see how he handles the Opelka game, but 2.30 on Simon is a fair enough underdog option for me.
Simon’s fellow Frenchman Lucas Pouille has proven not to be anything like a banker bet when priced up as slight favourite, with Pouille losing eight of his last 11 main tour or major matches when priced up between 1.81 and 1.97.
That goes some way to showing how unpredictable Pouille has been this season and I’m happy to take the flashy Pouille on with an opponent in Yoshihito Nishioka that will scrap for everything at his home event.
I said the other day that Nishioka was a possible underdog pick against Joao Sousa, but I was put off my his record in Tokyo and his general nerviness, but after a good win over Sousa I’m happy to take him here.
As poor as Pouille’s record is lately as slight favourite, Nishioka has a good one as slight underdog, coming out on top in five of his seven career matches when priced up between 2.05 and 2.23 (the other two he lost in a final set).
Nishioka has shown many times that his lack of firepower isn’t a major problem even on fast courts, with his superb movement making players like Pouille make more balls that they’d like and he may well coax enough mistakes out of Pouille to win this.
Pouille just hasn’t been able to keep the errors down for long this season, winning three straight matches at only one of his 17 main level tournaments since his surprise run to the Melbourne semi finals in January.
The Frenchman edged out Nishioka 7-5 in the final set when this pair clashed over three years ago in Brisbane (when Nishioka was 117 in the world) and a 67% first serve percentage was key then for Pouille as it so often is for his game.
If he doesn’t make a lot of first serves this time he’ll struggle and I’m happy to take Nishioka here.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Simon to beat Opelka at 2.30
0.5 points win Nishioka to beat Pouille at 1.97
