The clay court swing presents many challenges for the punter, but Juan Igancio Londero’s stomach is one factor that’s hard to plan for and it had a substantial part to play in a loss on Thursday.
Londero was sick during his defeat to Jiri Vesely and the way this week has gone so far indicates, for me, that I was right to only have one small bet per day in this toughest of spells on the calendar.
Conditions look to be set fair for another nice day for tennis in Marrakech on Friday, but it’s forecast to be rather unsettled again in Houston, so any rain there should be noted, as conditions have been tough at times this week.
This is another less than appealing betting day in all honesty, but there are a few pointers that may be of interest and one such stat is that Gilles Simon has lost seven of his last 11 matches against the group of players I have listed as ‘baseline grinders.’
One of those players on the list is Taro Daniel and while Daniel and Simon are meeting for the first time on Friday, Simon has lost to the following players in the last two-and-a-half years:
Paulo Lorenzi, Pablo Carreno Busta (twice), Marco Cecchinato (twice), Damir Dzumhur, and Alex De Minaur (twice).
He’s also lost on clay to Carlos Berlocq (twice), Pablo Andujar (twice) and Roberto Bautista Agut at main level in his career (6-8 win/loss versus my baseline grinders).
One theory could be that Simon prefers redirecting pace and he showed against the forehand attack of Guido Andreozzi that he’s more than capable of breaking an opponent down when they come at him, but against another grinder, maybe not so comfortable?
Daniel hasn’t been up to much lately, but with his style of play he could well force Simon to a decider, so the over 2.5 sets or 2-1 win for Simon look worth thinking about there.
Fellow Frenchman, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been enjoying the quickish conditions here and with more sunshine forecast for Friday his big game seems likely to hold up against Lorenzo Sonego.
Four players in action on Friday are still scheduled to play qualies in Monte-Carlo in the coming days (Pablo Andujar has withdrawn) and they are: Daniel, Jiri Vesely, Benoit Paire and Jaume Munar.
Paire and Munar go head-to-head after the latter got the big win over Alexander Zverev on Thursday and as ever with Paire one should tread carefully, but he has won six of his last nine against the same group of baseline grinders as in the Simon reference above.
Paire had one of his better serving days on Thursday against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, hitting seven aces and winning 91% of the points on his first serve, but that was against a weak returner and yet again Paire only put just over 50% of his serves in play.
The Frenchman is slightly tempting as a 2.40 underdog in this one, but it’s not tempting enough for a wager.
Pablo Andujar continued to ride his luck on Thursday when Philipp Kohlschreiber not only failed to serve out the opening set, but also missed a sitter on set point that led to him losing the set and throwing the initiative to a grateful Andujar.
Jiri Vesely was also a tad fortunate in that he faced a sick opponent on Thursday and he has beaten Andujar twice in the past, but both times were on hard courts and Andujar has won 11 of his last 14 main level clay matches against lefties.
That run goes all the way back to 2014, but I still couldn’t back Andujar as favourite with a ton of tennis in his legs and heavy strapping around his right thigh area to consider.
Vesely has lost six of his last seven to the baseline grinders on my list and he’s 7-10 win/loss against them in total, so this looks another one to readily pass over from a betting perspective.
At the US Men’s Clay Court Championships the one I mentioned yesterday, Santi Giraldo, should have won, but failed to add the finishing touches against Jordan Thompson.
Casper Ruud should have too much game for Marcel Granollers, who so far has faced some, shall we say, less than stern resistance from Bernard Tomic and Taylor Fritz so far this week.
Henri Laaksonen might possibly find Christian Garin a little mentally fatigued after the latter’s epic win over Jeremy Chardy in the previous round, but it’s hard to really fancy Laaksonen on his shaky display against an awful Ryan Harrison in the last round.
Daniel Elahi Galan has the chance to do what his compatriot Giraldo failed to do against Jordan Thompson, with the Aussie not a natural on this surface by any means, but if it doesn’t rain today that will help Thompson and Galan’s price doesn’t excite me.
Perhaps the one with the best chance today is Janko Tipsarevic against Sam Querrey, with the Serb often having the better of their clashes over the years, but the obvious worry is fitness.
Querrey has played two good matches in a row now and he doesn’t always play a third or fourth one to that level by any means, but he does have a surprisingly good record as a 1.40 to 1.50 favourite on clay, winning 11 of his 12 at main level in that price range.
Tipsy is probably the best underdog option today, but his fitness is a concern, and I’ll stick with one small punt on a Simon grind today.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Simon to beat Daniel 2-1 at 3.90
