One bad service game from Ugo Humbert (more bad ones were to come) cost us our set one tie break bet in Montpellier on Wednesday in what’s been a difficult week so far.
It was an odd day in Montpellier, starting with Adrian Mannarino beating Alexei Popyrin by the improbable scoreline of 6-0, 6-7, 6-0 and then with Lopez winning his first set by the score of 6-1 on indoor hard (on the main tour) since he beat Stefan Koubek by that score in Madrid in 2007.
And then, Richard Gasquet, having not played for at least three months turned up and continued his dominance over Gilles Simon, as I said he might yesterday, but the fitness uncertainty put me off that one. In the end it was Simon’s fitness that was the issue.
Speaking of fitness questions, if anyone was in any doubt as to the contradictory and downright confusing quality of the public statements of Gael Monfils, he’s just come up with another set.
After being appalled at the “disgrace” of quotes attributed to him about having an injury in the ATP Cup, Monfils said of his fitness at the Australian Open after beating Ernests Gulbis in round three: “I'm fine, I'm in the second week, playing good tennis. I played the ATP Cup I was fine. I practiced here for one month and I was fine. I never said I was hurt.”
Now, in Montpellier, he’s changed his tune again: “Physically, in the first round of the Australian Open I hurt my wrist a little. It's better but I still have a micro discomfort.”
There you go: Gael Monfils in a nutshell right there. And betting on him against Adrian Mannarino today looks like total guesswork.
David Goffin has won seven of his last 11 matches against the players I have listed as ‘unpredictables’ in my database, so he probably won’t be put off too much by the unorthodox stuff coming at him from Alexander Bublik, who turned the airwaves blue the other day with an expletive-ridden rant.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if Felix-Auger Aliassime was beaten by the net-rushing game of Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
The young Canadian has been beaten by Sergiy Stakhovsky (twice) and Mischa Zverev in the past and was pushed to a final set tie break by Dustin Brown, too, so his four matches against those guys have been tough to say the least.
FAA was favourite for three of those four matches as well (one was a retirement, though) so he’s not had things all his own way against opponents who like to approach the net on a regular basis.
He’s also rather inexperienced on indoor hard in general, with only four main level career matches played in these conditions, while Herbert will be motivated in a home tournament, too.
Herbert has held serve 86.2% of the time on indoor hard at main level in the last two years, so I’m expecting a tough challenge to be presented to FAA in this one.
I’m not sure the price on Herbert is quite good enough though, so we head to Argentina and the Cordoba Open on the clay for today’s bets.
Diego Schwartzman vs Jaume Munar
I’m not convinced at all that Schwartzman is as effective on the clay as he is on outdoor hard courts and as such I feel he’s a tad short for this second career clash with Munar, who’s played very well in Cordoba so far.
Schwartzman’s last 12 months at main level on clay have seen him record a service hold/break combined total of exactly 100, which is okay, but pretty average at best for a player ranked 14th in the world.
On hard courts in the same time frame Schwartzman’s outdoor hard court hold/break total at main level is almost 110, so there’s a substantial difference between his stats on hard to those on clay.
Playing at home hasn’t really suited Schwartzman yet either, with only one foray past the quarter finals at main level in Argentina in his seven main level events here and that one occasion led to a heavy loss in the Buenos Aires final as favourite.
Munar, on the other hand, has played well in Cordoba so far, winning three of his four career matches here and beating the likes of Cecchinato and Leo Mayer and holding serve 90.4% of the time (breaking 24.1% of the time).
The Spaniard had a tricky season in 2019 after breaking through in 2018 and by the autumn of last year he dropped back down to Challengers, where he did well, winning the Montevideo title and making the final in Seville.
He’s played well at this sort of altitude in the past (making semis in Kitzbuhel and the quarters here and in Marrakech) and that extra zip it gives him on serve has allowed him to get on the front foot a little more than at sea level.
Munar took a set off Schwartzman when they met on hard at the US Open in 2018 and while I’d expect the Argentine to be much too strong on that surface there is just 0.6% difference in their clay hold/break totals at main level in the last 12 months.
Munar +1.5 sets at 2.12 looks the bet in this one.
The other tempting one in Cordoba on Thursday is to back Pablo Andujar as slight underdog against Albert Ramos.
Andujar has won 10 of the 13 career clashes between this pair and probably should have done better in their last one as well, but having served for the opening set of that one (in Gstaad last summer) he lost it in two.
Andujar went only 2-8 on break chances that day, while Ramos was much more clinical, taking three of his four break opportunities, but Ramos has really struggled to hold serve against Andujar in his career.
Ramos has only held serve 60.6% of the time in their last 10 meetings, while Andujar has held 78.9% of the time and that Gstaad match was played at a time when Ramos was in the middle of a run of 12 wins in 13 matches – by far the high point of his season.
Both of these Spaniards are effective at altitude, with Ramos having regularly performed well in Quito and Sao Paulo, as well as in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel last season.
Andujar won Marrakech in 2018 and made the final in 2019, as well as going deep in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel last season, plus he’s a former Gstaad champ, so this sort of altitude suits the games of both men.
It’s hard to ignore the career series stats between this pair though and Ramos (on a windy day) struggled past Facundo Bagnis in round one, so on what’s set to possibly be a day affected by thunderstorms in Cordoba I’ll take Andujar at these prices.
After I said the other day that they were due some tie breaks in Pune they had five in eight sets on Wednesday – 24 hours after I needed them – so I'm about done with the Tata Open for now, save, of course, my interest in Ilya Ivashka, who's into the quarter finals and will face Jiri Vesely on Friday.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Munar +1.5 sets to beat Schwartzman at 2.12
0.5 points win Andujar to beat Ramos at 2.20
