We got off to a profitable start on day one in Montreal when Jan-Lennard Struff was a comfortable odds-against winner over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but Lucas Pouille served poorly against Milos Raonic, who still looks less than fully fit.
We’ve got another 13 matches from round one and two on the card for Tuesday in Montreal, where the weather is expected to be pretty warm at around 29C in the shade and with 50% humidity, but with little wind.
Gilles Simon has had Radu Albot’s number in two decisive victories over the Moldovan so far in their career series, but the Rogers Cup has not been the happiest of hunting grounds for Gillou lately.
The veteran Frenchman has won only two of his last nine matches at this tournament since he lost in a final set tie break to Nicolas Kiefer back in 2008.
That’s off-putting and it makes that match one of several today that have strong factors either way.
The respective form of Marco Cecchinato and Diego Schwartzman couldn’t be much more different, with Schwartzman coming off the back of a first hard court title (at any level) in Los Cabos.
Cecchinato has been poor for some time now and is currently on a run of 1-11 in his last dozen matches, but I guess there’s a chance that Schwartzman may be fatigued after that Los Cabos win.
Guido Pella vs David Goffin
Talking of Argentine players, Pella is not without a chance against Goffin, with the Argentine playing well last week in Los Cabos to back up his fine Wimbledon run.
Goffin suffered a quite surprising loss to Yoshihito Nishioka last week in Washington DC after looking to be back to his best during the grass swing, but what would concern me about Goffin is his very brittle confidence.
He absolutely collapsed mentally against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon after taking an early lead and for me Goffin is one of those players that takes a while to get over a heavy defeat like that one turned out to be.
Yes, he beat Pella easily on grass in Halle and leads the career series 3-0, but that Halle clash was Pella’s first match on grass for a year, where Goffin had already played three the previous week.
Their US Open clash in 2017 went the full distance (as did their Indian Wells encounter) and Pella won 11 more points in it but lost and it’s arguably Pella that’s coming into this clash with more confidence.
Goffin has a very good record against left-handers, winning 17 of his last 20 against them on all hard courts, but he lost to one last week in Nishioka and Pella on the handicap is a tempting betting option here.
Borna Coric vs Peter Gojowczyk
Coric looks a bit of a shaky favourite at his price of around 1.37 against the flashy and occasionally very effective Gojowczyk considering that Coric hasn’t won a match since Halle.
Injury kept Coric out of Wimbledon and is only match since then was a loss to Salvatore Caruso on clay at home in Umag, so where is he at right now in his form and in his fitness?
We’re guessing as to both, but we know that Gojowczyk is in fine touch after a nice run to the Washington DC semi finals as a lucky loser.
He’s certainly a streaky sort of a player and while we’ll have to see if this match-up favours the more attacking player on this surface Gojo has beaten the more, shall we say ‘solid’ type of opponent before.
De Minaur last week (and previously), Gilles Simon, Damir Dzumhur, Aljaz Bedene, and Joao Sousa have all lost to Gojowczyk and while Coric is perhaps on his best form better than several of those we have no idea what his current form is.
Indeed, as I’ve mentioned in previous previews, Coric has a tendency for three-set matches, with 16 of his 26 completed best-of-three set matches going to a final set in 2019.
Given also that Gojowczyk tends to play at a very high level for a set or so and often succumbs to a poor first serve percentage the over 2.5 sets looks a fair option in this one at 2.48.
With Coric’s rustiness also to consider the 2.63 about the German taking the opener is another one worthy of consideration.
Elsewhere, I’m not sure that Hubert Hurkacz should be a 1.70 chance against Taylor Fritz, with that price pretty much entirely based on likely fatigue on the part of Fritz.
The American is coming off a final in Los Cabos (indeed, back-to-back finals) on Saturday, so it’s a bit of a quick turnaround, but not as fast as some players have to cope with today (Nick Kyrgios).
He did sound quite down after losing to Schwartzman on Saturday: “Been a really long time since a loss stung this much,” he said. “I’ve never been so disappointed in myself on the court, but it all just makes me want to work harder than ever before and improve every part of my game.”
We’ll see how he responds, but it’s not the toughest turnaround I’ve seen and conditions aren’t that different, so 2.16 on Fritz is an option if you’re prepared to take a chance on possible fatigue.
Felix Auger-Aliassime was poor last week in Washington against Marin Cilic and if – and it’s a big if – Vasek Pospisil is fit for duty this all-Canadian clash may well be closer than the odds suggest.
Pospisil seems to be constantly injured these days and had a MTO in the doubles yesterday, but if he’s fine on the day the overs looks an option there.
Best Bets
1 point win Pella +3.5 games to beat Goffin at 1.89
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Coric/Gojowczyk at 2.48
0.5 points win Fritz to beat Hurkacz at 2.16
