We got the tight match we expected in Brisbane on Thursday when Jeremy Chardy had to save a match point against Yasutaka Uchiyama, with only four points in it at the end and one tie break played.
Unfortunately, the breaker came in set three, not set one, and neither man served to the level they had shown earlier in the week.
We have six matches on the card on Friday and I'm looking at four of them today, starting in Brisbane where we’ve got our outright Daniil Medvedev going for us as slight underdog against Milos Raonic in the 05:00 UK time match.
If I wasn’t already on Medvedev I’d be tempted to back him here as a 2.08 chance against an opponent who the Russian beat handily on indoor hard in Tokyo a few months ago.
Raonic has been serving very well so far this week, but he’ll need to, as in that Tokyo clash he only won 42% of his second serve points and didn’t create a break point on the Medvedev serve.
Indeed, Raonic has only broken serve 10.3% of the time in his last 10 main level matches and only one of those matches was versus a top-30 ranked opponent.
Medvedev started against Andy Murray exactly as I’d hoped, by carrying on where he left off in 2018, and a similar level should see him get the better of Raonic again.
In the other Brisbane match on Friday Alex De Minaur is favoured by the layers to progress against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but 1.61 seems a tad short considering De Minaur’s 2-5 win/loss record against the big servers on my list.
In those seven matches De Minaur has held serve 79.7% of the time and broken 13.5% of the time, so he has a bit to prove, but Tsonga hasn’t yet shown his best level by any means since his latest injury comeback.
The slower conditions at night should help De Minaur and he’ll probably win it on current form, but he’s not for me at those odds.
Steve Darcis vs Ivo Karlovic
At the Tata Open Maharashtra in Pune there’s what looks a nice opportunity for Karlovic to make his first ATP Tour final since Rosmalen on the grass in 2017 when he takes on Darcis.
The Belgian has a poor record against the big servers, losing 16 of his 22 career matches against the ones in my database, and the last nine in a row going back to a win over Gilles Muller in Miami in 2015.
Fatigue is also likely to be a factor for Darcis after such a long layoff, but his lack of height and power makes it hard for him to break back if he does drop that relatively weak serve of his.
Looking at the stats that are available of the matches that Darcis has played against big servers we see that he’s 3-16 win/loss and he’s only held serve 73.2% of the time and broken only 9.3% of the time, so there’s scope here for taking Karlovic on the game handicap and potentially for risking the 3.40 on no tie breaks.
The veteran Croat has already taken care of Evgeny Donskoy and Felix Auger Aliassime without needing a tie break and a likely fatigued Darcis’ serve looks even more breakable than those of Donskoy and Aliassime.
Karlovic is yet to be broken this week and he’s only faced three break points (all against Gulbis on Thursday), so the quick conditions in Pune are clearly suiting the Karlovic game.
The pair have only met once and that was on grass at Wimbledon in 2009 when Karlovic won in straight sets (none of them a tie break) and a similar result looks likely on Friday in Pune.
In the second Pune semi final another big server is looking for a spot in the final in a repeat of the 2018 title match when Kevin Anderson takes on Gilles Simon.
Gillou was put in as a 3.14 underdog when he took down Anderson a year ago here and he’s slightly shorter this time at 2.80, but what would concern me if I were a Simon backer is fitness.
It’s been a long time since Simon won a third consecutive best-of-three set match after having played back-to-back three setters previously.
The last time he tried it was in Lyon in 2017 and he was heavily beaten by Tomas Berdych and prior to that a few months earlier he was comfortably defeated by Tsonga.
Prior to that was the 2016 Paris Masters when again he was easily beaten by Berdych and Madrid the same year (Murray in two), then Shanghai 2015 (Berdych in two again).
I had to go back to Shanghai 2014 for the last time he won back-to-back three setters and then the match after it at the same tournament when he took down Garcia-Lopez and Wawrinka and then Jaziri.
That doesn’t mean he won’t come out on top this time, but at 34 and with his playing style it seems unlikely.
Best Bet
1 point win Karlovic -1.5 games to beat Darcis at 1.90
