It was a disappointing end to our outright interest in the China Open on Friday when Fabio Fognini capitulated from a set up on Karen Khachanov in the quarter finals.
Indeed, it was a grim day for underdog backers, with none winning and only Fabio taking so much as a set.
The conditions in Tokyo look more conducive to big serving on Saturday than they did on Friday, with nowhere near as much wind forecast and plenty of sunshine expected on a 30C day in the shade.
I’d hoped that the much cooler conditions on Friday in Beijing would afford Fognini the chance to beat Khachanov and it’s set to be sunnier again there on Saturday, although still way cooler than earlier in the week at only 18C in the shade.
So, perhaps the conditions play nicely into the hands of Reilly Opelka, who takes on John Millman at around 13:00 local time (05:00 UK) in a first career meeting.
The wind and higher humidity didn’t seem to bother Opelka much on Friday when he sent down 16 aces in nine service games and didn’t face a break point in a dominant win over Yasutaka Uchiyama.
It’ll be about 30C in the shade and with only 6kph winds and sunny when this match is set to start and given Millman’s struggles against big servers in the past I have to favour the big American here.
Millman has played 12 matches at all levels against the big servers in my database and won only two of them, but what stands out as well as Millman’s weak record against the big guys is the amount of tie breaks he’s been involved in.
Twelve of his last 17 sets against my big servers have gone to tie breaks and four of his last six opening sets in these matches have gone the distance.
So, in his dozen matches against the big servers in my list Millman has played 0.44 tie breaks per set and broken their collective serves only 10.1% of the time.
Millman can certainly make life difficult for Opelka though by following the route shown by his fellow countryman Alex De Minaur, who’s beaten Opelka three times this season (playing four tie breaks in the process).
The two Aussies are quite similar in the way they go about their business and on a tough-looking day I’m happy to take a small chance on this one going long, with over 31.5 games at 3.80 the bet.
In the other Tokyo semi both Novak Djokovic and David Goffin brought their best to the court in Friday’s quarters, but can we trust Goffin not to collapse mentally against an elite player yet again?
I won’t be after his recent capitulations after bright starts against the elite and perhaps the bet here might be set two under 9.5 games in set two at 2.05.
Goffin has gone under 9.5 games in set two 10 of his last 12 completed matches against the group of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and Federer and the way he’s gone away so tamely against them lately suggests that bet has some appeal.
In Beijing the power of Karen Khachanov may well cause problems for Dominic Thiem, but are the conditions quick enough for Khachanov to take full advantage of Thiem’s vulnerability to power on hard courts?
I’m not convinced that they are and I’m also still not sold on Khachanov’s form, although the price is slightly tempting given their career series on hard courts, which Khachanov leads 3-0 at all levels.
So, I’ll pass on that one and also on the other Beijing semi, which looks priced about right on the current respective form of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev.
The German in particular looks a lot better this week than at any time in the recent past and the slow night time conditions (it’ll be 10C when this match starts) will probably help Zverev.
Zverev blew it against Tsitsipas from a set and a break and two match points up in Toronto last time they clashed on a hard court in Toronto and the Greek said of that encounter: “I have no idea how I pulled off such an incredible comeback.”
Similarly to Khachanov I’m not sure that Tsitsipas is quite at his best level right now and Zverev should be able to absorb much of what’s coming at him in slow conditions at night.
They’ve had some decent battles in the past though and I might be tempted by over 2.5 sets, but I prefer the Opelka bet.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 31.5 games in Opelka/Millman at 3.80
