Debrief

 

Our 33-1 shot, Stefanos Tsitsipas will probably be regretting his missed opportunity against Daniil Medvedev in Monte-Carlo, with the Greek failing from a break up in the final set, with what turned out to be a below par Novak Djokovic and Dusan Lajovic the obstacles to a final. In the end, 200-1 shot Fabio Fognini took the title that his ability has promised for many years now. 

It was the right play to take on Novak Djokovic, but for me it was unforeseeable that someone so previously terrible on clay as Medvedev had been would be the one to make the semi finals from that section of the draw and even less likely was Lajovic’s run.

 

Conditions and trends

 

The grand old tournament for the Trofeo Conde de Godo is always a mainstay of the sporting calendar in Barcelona and this well-organised event is well worth a visit at the lovely Real Club de Tenis Barcelona.

They play with Dunlop Fort clay court balls on what’s usually a quicker surface than Monte-Carlo, but as ever with the clay, the weather plays a big part and we’re expecting strong winds at the start of the tournament and cloud with showers for most of the week.

It’s a tournament that’s usually won by one of the favourites, with a top-five seed taking the title each year since 2005 when Rafa Nadal was seeded eighth and won it. The last unseeded winner here was Gaston Gaudio in 2002.

I’ll be in Budapest from Wednesday at the Hungarian Open, where they play at a sports complex in Péterhegy, with the same balls as in Barcelona, but the weather for week there looks unsettled and could be anywhere between 9C and 28C, which is helpful.

A lucky loser (Marco Cecchinato) won the title here a year ago, beating 80-1 shot John Millman and in 2017 qualifier Aljaz Bedene made the final as a 50-1 chance, so it’s well worth considering the qualifiers in Budapest this week.
 

Hungarian Open

This looks the place for a bit of possible outright value this week, with top seed Marin Cilic looking all over the place and badly in need of matches (hence the late wild card) and fellow Croat and second seed Borna Coric is likely to be fatigued and/or looking ahead to bigger things.

Cilic has lost in his opening match in three of his last four events as top seed and he’s only made the final in one of his the last 10 tournaments in which he was number one seed.

So, he’s hardly a reliable favourite and he could well go early again, with Pablo Cuevas a possible opening round assignment in Budapest.

The unlikely hero of Monte-Carlo, Dusan Lajovic, is another one likely to be feeling it mentally and physically this week, while Nikoloz Basilashvili is in awful form, so there’s a chance for someone in this top half of the draw, I feel.

Cuevas is an obvious option, but he hasn’t made a final in any of his last 16 main level clay tournaments in Europe and I prefer the really big prices this week, rather than the 10-1 about Cuevas.

Matteo Berrettini is perhaps a more tempting option at around 16-1, while Laslo Djere has claims as well at 20-1, but I’d suspect that conditions here will be too slow for Peter Gojowczyk.

It’s the bottom half that looks the place for a couple of bets in Budapest though and I’m siding with the two qualifiers, Filip Krajinovic and Miomir Kecmanovic in the bottom half.

Both have tough opening round matches against Andreas Seppi and John Millman (last year’s semi finalist and finalist) respectively, but both Krajinovic and Kecmanovic have been in good form lately and have the advantage of having already got a feel for conditions.

Millman has done nothing else on clay at main level since making the final here a year ago and hasn’t been in good form of late either, losing six of his last eight matches, so Kecmanovic’s form in slow conditions at Indian Wells makes him of interest here.

Krajinovic is a recent finalist on the clay at Challenger level in Sophia Antipolis and also played well at Indian Wells (beating Goffin and Medvedev and losing to Nadal) and Miami (beat Wawrinka/lost to Federer) in slow conditions.

Last year’s winner, Marco Cecchinato, may prove to be a tough hurdle to overcome for all in this half, but Krajinovic has beaten the Italian four times (4-3 head-to-head) and Cecchinato was complaining of a fever and a back problem in Monte-Carlo.

Coric’s level has at times been awful this season, but he keeps battling away and made the latter stages of Miami and Monte-Carlo – in the bigger tournaments at least.

He’s made only one final in his last 18 ATP 250 and 500 events and I’m not convinced that he’s planning on staying here for the full week.

Hubert Hurkacz lost to Coric in a very ordinary match indeed in Monte-Carlo last week (7-5 in the third) and I didn’t see anything much from the Pole that day that has me thinking he can win a tournament on clay at this level.

Damir Dzumhur rarely seems fit these days and has a weak record lately on clay (lost 14 of his last 18 at main level), while Pierre-Hugues Herbert will surely want it quicker than this, despite a couple of good wins last week in Monte-Carlo.
 

Barcelona Open

As ever on the clay, this is all about Nadal, with most layers going 1/3 the odds on the each-way, which isn’t ideal, but it shows how dominant Rafa has been in these clay events over the years.

He wasn’t so dominant in Monte-Carlo though and would you back a 32-year-old with dodgy knees, who’s just said he “played one of the worst matches on clay in 14 years,” at a price like 1.60 to win his next tournament?

I’m sure many will, but it’s not for me and Nadal has also been placed in what looks by far the toughest half of the Barcelona draw, with Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, Diego Schwartzman and David Goffin all capable of beating Nadal (as are many others) on his form in his last match.

I’m tempted by the price on Khachanov here, with the Russian in poor form this season, yes, but he knows this tennis club very well indeed, having trained here lots, both as a youngster and more recently.

It might just be that a return here sparks him into life and his part of the draw isn’t so bad, with the returning from injury Pablo Carreno Busta the high seed, but just getting past round one may be awkward against a consistent opponent in either Guido Pella or Joao Sousa.

I’ll leave that one and instead take two players at huge prices in the bottom half of the draw in case Nadal doesn’t make it through and they are Christian Garin and Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Garin is in great form on the clay and he’s now posted a record of 11-3 win/loss and a hold/break total of 105.6 in his last 12 months on clay at main level and with a title under his belt already this month he couldn’t be in better form.

He’s got a potentially tough one in Martin Klizan first up, but it’s guesswork as to which Klizan arrives on court on any given day and if he can survive that one this part of the draw that has Fabio Fognini in it looks winnable and 200-1 is a fair price. 

It’s hard to see Fogna with all his injuries putting much in this week and there are injury and form doubts over the other seeds in this part of the draw, too.

Felix Auger-Aliassime had hip problems in Monte-Carlo, while Kei Nishikori said he didn’t train before his loss to Pierre-Hugues Herbert due to injury and he’s having too rough a time of it right now to back him – even with his fine record at this tournament.

Denis Shapovalov still has lots to learn on clay, while Alexander Zverev’s confidence looks totally shot and Grigor Dimitrov hasn’t played anything like his best tennis for a very long time now and his last clay final was back in 2016 in Istanbul.

Daniil Medvedev played by far the best clay week of his career last week and he’s an option, but we’ll see if that week was a false dawn on clay or not from him, as the way he downed tools in the semi finals was very off-putting and it's set to be very windy again this week. 

Kohlschreiber has a very good record here, winning 10 of his last 15 matches here and he’s been in good touch lately, too, beating Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells and he could have (the story of his career, really) done it again in Monte-Carlo.

I’m sure he’ll find a way to extract a defeat from the jaws of victory somehow, but 100-1 in a half of the draw this open seems quite big.  
 

Conclusion

 

The Hungarian Open looks wide open, with several of the seeds looking worth taking on, so I’ll start off this week by backing Krajinovic and Kecmanovic and adding Kohlschreiber and Garin in Barcelona at big prices.

 

We’ll see how that woeful display against Fognini affects Nadal in Barcelona, but we’ve got the whole of the top half batting for us against him and it may just be that he needs more time to get back to his best level on clay this year, so taking a couple at big prices in the bottom half of the draw makes sense.

 

Best Bets

 

1 point win Krajinovic to win Budapest at 33-1
0.5 points each-way Kecmanovic to win Budapest at 66-1
0.5 points win Garin to win Barcelona at 201.0
0.5 points win Kohlschreiber to win Barcelona at 101.0