Debrief
Our picks in Montreal were about as good as they could be in the top half of the Rogers Cup draw, with 100-1 chance Gael Monfils and 40-1 shot Roberto Bautista Agut facing each other in the last eight.
We all know what happened after that, with Monfils and RBA being forced to play two matches in a short space of time, due to rain, and when the pair went all the way to a final set breaker and Monfils edged it, our chances had gone.
Monfils’ ankle injury meant he didn’t show for the semi final, meaning a walkover loss for a 50-1 place bet, which was the 10th loss in 12 deciding matches for our outrights this year.
We’re still in profit for the season though and hopefully that 2-10 record will improve in the closing months of the campaign.
Conditions and trends
The players are at the Lindner Family Tennis Centre this week, where they’ll play on a Decoturf II outdoor hard court that seems to have been getting gradually slower in recent times.
The admission from the Montreal tournament director that they’d slowed that surface down came as no surprise last week and looking at the CPI in Cincy in recent years it’s a similar story.
The CPI was up at 35.6 in 2016, 33.6 in 2017 and 31.6 in 2018, so that makes it medium-slow.
It’s usually pretty hot here in the summer and that makes the Penn balls fly through the air faster than Montreal and the forecast suggests it’ll be in the low 30s C again this week.
Players have often mentioned that it can be hard to control the ball here and it’s not a venue suited to all players.
Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are back this week and Federer is the only man this decade to have taken the title home as a number one seed, which he did in 2012.
33-1 Grigor Dimitrov beat 25-1 Nick Kyrgios in the final here in 2017 and 40-1 Marin Cilic won it in 2016, so there have been a couple of upsets in recent years in Cincy.
Quarter one
There’s certainly been a bit of a north/south divide in the Cincy draw this year, with a superb draw for Rafael Nadal (if he plays) in the bottom half and a tough one for those in the top half.
Novak Djokovic returns to the Tour after skipping Montreal for “rest and recovery” after Wimbledon and he’s number one seed in Q1 up against the likes of Karen Khachanov, John Isner, Fabio Fognini, and Nick Kyrgios.
Novak’s first match may well be against Sam Querrey, who went well at Wimbledon for us at a big price, but Querrey has a weak record in Cincy, failing to win back-to-back matches here since 2009.
It’s possible that he could stun Novak first up on the Serb’s return to hard courts, with Querrey having been playing on them in World Team Tennis lately, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
It’s also possible that another big server could damage Djokovic in round three and that would be John Isner, whose record in Cincy is better than Querrey’s, with 12 wins form his last 18 matches here and a final run in 2013 (lost to Nadal).
Querrey has beaten Isner twice here and either of these huge servers on their day could cause big problems, as could another of the same ilk.
Kyrgios on current form could well be a problem for Djokovic and that would be spicy one given NK’s less than complimentary comments about Djokovic lately.
It certainly seemed in Washington DC that Kyrgios’ work with a mental coach has paid off, but will it last?
If it does an opening trio of Querrey, Isner, Kyrgios looks a pretty tricky quarter for a rusty Djokovic and there’s more of a chance for my money than usual of Djokovic falling early on this week.
Should Kyrgios not make it, Karen Khachanov is also in there with a shot of blasting his way past Djokovic and he proved he can do it in Paris last season against an admittedly jaded Djokovic.
I think we can probably discount Fognini, who looks to be struggling badly with his ongoing ankle injury issue, but this quarter is full of big hitters and Djokovic will have to play well if he wants to progress at a tournament he won for the first time last year.
Indeed, Isner beat him here in 2013 and Tommy Robredo did the year after, so this doesn’t look a shoo-in quarter for the Serb.
Quarter two
Another very competitive quarter here, with seven times champion Roger Federer making his summer hard debut after taking some time off to rest after Wimbledon.
Matteo Berrettini may well get an early chance to make up for his woeful Wimbledon display against Federer when he’ll probably be the Swiss veteran’s first opponent in Cincy this week.
Berrettini, too, hasn’t played on hard for a while after skipping recent tournaments due to an ankle injury he picked up in training, so he’ll perhaps be a tad rusty as well.
Stan Wawrinka is a possible round three opponent for Federer and yet again Stan has been drawn against the fading Grigor Dimitrov, the 2017 Cincy champion, whose best days look some way behind him at the moment.
Wawrinka or Dimitrov would have to beat the in-form Nikoloz Basilashvili to get to a possible meet with Federer and that won’t be easy and it would be fascinating to watch Basil take on Federer in these conditions.
If Fed gets through that tricky run of early matches he’d probably have to take on either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Daniil Medvedev to win the quarter, so both Federer and Djokovic have tough quarters.
Medvedev is the man in form at the moment, but he’s made back-to-back finals now and may be a bit tired, while Tsitsipas doesn’t seem fully fit after playing with his right thigh heavily taped up the last couple of times.
Quarter three
With Nadal a possible non-starter the obvious play this week is to find a finalist from the bottom half of the draw.
This is what Nadal said before Montreal about his participation in Cincy: “Cincinnati is still an option. It is tougher on the cement than grass or clay. We are the only sport that regularly plays on such a hard surface. This one can be dangerous for the body.”
He might well fancy it after a look at the draw though and in the adjacent quarter to Nadal’s Q3 has a few big-priced options.
Alexander Zverev is little better than hopeless at the moment and needs a monumental improvement to figure here, while Dominic Thiem struggles at this time of year and had a cold a few days ago in Montreal, where he was brushed aside by Medvedev.
So, the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime, Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Marin Cilic, Diego Schwartzman and others may well fancy their chances in a quarter that also sees Andy Murray make his return to singles action.
Murray takes on Richard Gasquet, who showed much better fitness last week in Montreal, but surely lacks the stamina these days to go far. In his pomp he never bettered the last eight here.
As well as the ones I listed above, Frances Tiafoe and Hubert Hurkacz might have a say in this quarter on their best form, which Hurkacz showed glimpses of last week in Montreal.
Tiafoe has been struggling with injury so I’ll count him out and I’m tempted to give another chance to Bautista Agut, who was unlucky with the rain delay last week in Montreal, which really set him back.
I’m not sure the bouncy conditions, with balls flying around really suits him though, so I’ll pass and the other one I thought about was former champion Marin Cilic, who has the game for Cincy, but not the current form.
Cilic has shown glimpses of a return to form in recent weeks, but he keeps chucking in a poor one, as he did against Dominic Thiem last week in Montreal, so it’s hard to see him repeating his title run here, although I wouldn’t rule it out.
So, maybe it’s time for Auger-Aliassime to go even deeper than his M1000 semi final in Miami, but at 33-1 he’s not that great a price and conditions here are tough, even for more experienced players to control the ball.
Quarter four
If we’re going to take a flyer on Nadal either not showing up or failing to make the final, the ones we should probably think about appear to be: Kei Nishikori, Alex De Minaur, Reilly Opelka, Borna Coric, David Goffin, Taylor Fritz and maybe Guido Pella.
Nadal has only made one final in Cincy in his career and that was when he won it in 2013, so this half of the draw is definitely the place to look for value – but do any of them stand out?
Not really, I have to say, with Nishikori the obvious choice, but yet again he seems to be having injury problems, with the brittle bodied Japanese star withdrawing from the doubles in Montreal, citing an elbow injury.
One assumes that it’s the same elbow injury that made him take time off after Wimbledon: “I took maybe three weeks off, because my wrist and elbow were hurting after Wimbledon, “ he said ahead of Montreal. “So I took some rest, and now I'm feeling good.”
Clearly not that good and I spent too much on Nishikori only to be foiled by his injuries a few years back, so I shan’t be doing it now that he’s (for me) past his best.
In these conditions, where John Isner has had success, I’m tempted to take a punt on Opelka, who may well take down Coric in round one, given Coric’s form – or lack of it – last week and his propensity to struggle against big servers (6-24 at all levels and surfaces versus the ones in my database).
The problem for Opelka is that he’d face De Minaur next and that’s proven to be a tricky match-up for the big man so far in his career, but I’m not sure I can see De Minaur going all the way this week in conditions that usually favour bigger hitters.
That said, he did win Atlanta, which is a big hitter’s paradise usually and perhaps it’s worth taking them both each-way, as they look the best value options in Q4.
Fritz has been playing well, but looked jaded last week when he also had a lot of strapping on his thigh, so he’s not for me this time, and Goffin looks like he’s entering one of his all too frequent funks again.
Conclusion
The bottom half of the draw looks the clear section for taking a big-priced punt in Cincy and in Q4 Opelka and De Minaur look to be the ones priced up attractively, but with Djokovic and Federer back in the field I’ll pass on the top half of the draw and be a little circumspect with my outrights this week.
Without Nadal in the bottom half if he fails to show or is less than enthused this week, which is very possible, each-way options in this half look the right strategy.
Best Bets
1 point each-way Opelka at 81.0
1 point each-way De Minaur at 101.0
