I had hoped that 2020 would be a new page on the outrights after the incredible run of losing semi finalists and finalists last season, but right away this new year we’re back to more of the same.
Hubert Hurkacz’s defeat as favourite to Benoit Paire on Friday in Auckland means that our return from our last 18 semi finalists is two titles and 16 losses in either the semi final or final.
So, it’s Paire, who, after surviving a meltdown at the end of set two in which he was yelling at the umpire to intervene in a problem Paire had with a member of the crowd and then obliterating a racquet (for which he received a point penalty) that goes on to face Ugo Humbert in the ASB Classic final.
I said yesterday that Humbert had every chance against a John Isner who’s been struggling for form and was a little lucky to get past Kyle Edmund, but the price on Humbert in that one was too short for me to take an interest.
It’ll be a second career meeting between the two Frenchman after they also met in a pre-slam week in Winston-Salem back in August of last year when Paire won in a decider from a set down (something he’s done several times this season already).
Indeed, Paire was a set and a break down that day in North Carolina, and Humbert served for the match for a 2-0 win, but was broken and never got back on track.
What put me off Humbert initially this week was him struggling physically last week in defeat to Denis Kudla, but he’s looked in fine condition all week here and he’s dropped just one set all week long, holding serve 95.7% of the time (Paire 84.2%).
Humbert’s stats are excellent on serve, with 86.2% of first serve points won this week (Paire 76.9%) and crucially an impressive 62.1% of second serve points won (Paire 46.9%).
He’s still got work to do on return though, with only 15.2% breaks of serve this week (Paire 26.3%) and nerves will most likely play a part in what will be Humbert’s maiden tour level final.
Paire’s record in finals is typically hit and miss, with a 3-5 win/loss mark and he’s yet to win a title away from the clay (only won one set in his four prior hard court finals).
For me, Humbert has been the best player this week in Auckland and he’s the right favourite, but we have to beware of Paire’s amazing record as slight underdog, in which he’s now won 11 of his last 12 main tour matches when priced as underdog between evens and 2.39.
Paire said of his display against what was a poor Hurkacz on Friday: “I’m very sorry. I broke one racquet; I was a little bit nervous. It’s never easy to play against Hubert. He’s a very good player. I hope you enjoy with a beer, with a wine and with everything. I would do the same if I was in your place.”
It’s not one to stake much on, as most Paire matches aren’t, but I’d expect a tight one here, with nerves likely to play a part, and the 2-1 to Humbert at 4.20 is worth an interest if you’re betting in this one.
Moving on to the Adelaide International final and all things being equal this looks well within the grasp of Doha champion Andrey Rublev when he takes on Lloyd Harris at around 07:30 UK time on Saturday.
It’s a first senior meeting between this pair, although Rublev says they clashed in juniors, and at this stage of their careers you’d have to fancy the Russian in the form he’s been in so far in 2020.
The negative for Rublev here is possible fatigue after a long battle with Felix Auger-Aliassime that ended late on Friday night local time and that comes on top of a long week in Doha and a bit of jet lag.
Even so, it’s hard to see Rublev not fancying it in a title match – even one this close to Melbourne and his comments after the FAA win, in which he won only five points more in three hours, are perhaps notable.
“These matches are amazing,” he said. “Because after these matches you understand why you are working, what you’re working for, why you need to improve, why you need to break your ass on the practices, even when you cannot or when you feel tired to enjoy these moments. I mean, these moments are special that you’re not gonna feel in normal life without tennis.”
He had to tough it out against FAA when he could perhaps have been forgiven for mentally moving on to Melbourne and the extra quality Rublev has should be enough here.
Harris is improving, but he’s yet to really trouble a top-20 opponent, and maybe the best betting option here could be to back over 10.5 games in set one at around 3.0.
Harris has held 90.4% of the time so far this week in the main draw, while Rublev has held 92.7% of the time and both men have broken their opponents less than 20% of the time this week.
Nerves might play a part for Harris in his maiden tour level final, but if he serves as he has been (86.6% of first serve points won this week in the main draw) this might be tricky early on for Rublev.
But just a small interest tonight for me on Humbert edging out Paire.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Humbert to beat Paire 2-1 at 4.20
