Our week in Halle and London got off to a bright start on Monday when our one bet of the day, on underdog Radu Albot against Matt Ebden, was successful, while our huge-priced outright Steve Johnson took down Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets.
We’re expecting a clear, dry and warm day in Halle on Tuesday, with highs of around 28C, but West London looks like it will get rain, with showers forecast pretty much all day, so play could be seriously affected at Queen’s Club.
Although there are plenty of matches set for Tuesday across both venues not a lot is jumping off the page at me in terms of value and with Halle looking by far the more reliable in terms of weather on day two I’ll focus my attentions there.
Rudolf Molleker vs Sergiy Stakhovsky
Of all the underdogs today it’s Molleker that holds the most interest for me, with the young German more than capable of taking down ageing net rusher Stakhovsky at a price of around the 2.60 mark.
We’ve seen over the years what Stakho can do on grass when he’s in the mood, but at 33-years-old now he’s not the force he once was and he’s already lost to James Ward and Viktor Galovic this grass swing.
Indeed, the two players he did beat in qualies in Halle were Matthias Bachinger (2-7 all-time at main level on grass) and Ernests Gulbis (15-22) and I’m not at all sure he should be a 1.50 chance here versus a young and hungry opponent playing at home.
Molleker walloped down 26 aces when he beat Jan-Lennard Struff in Stuttgart two years ago at the age of 17 and he should have taken Nikoloz Basilashvili to a deciding set in rain affected match here in 2018.
While he mainly plays on clay he’s shown in a brief grass court career that he can operate on grass and Molleker has been in good touch on the clay in Challengers of late, so confidence should be high.
Stakho has actually struggled in Halle over the years and only won one main draw match here in five attempts and his last 10 main level matches on grass have produced a 4-6 win/loss mark and a hold/break total of just 95.2. He's also lost five of his last nine main level matches on grass when priced up as favourite.
It’s not the most confident pick I’ve ever made, but on what looks a poor day for value I’m happy to have a small interest in Molleker at these prices.
Elsewhere, the favourites should really be winning, with Benoit Paire can be decent on grass (as Roger Federer found out last year) and maybe in with a chance against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if he’s in the mood, while perhaps Matteo Berrettini will be a bit fatigued after winning Stuttgart, but I’m not confident at all in Nikoloz Basilashvili on grass.
Taylor Fritz could well have his chances against Roberto Bautista Agut in lively conditions and with RBA not having played on grass since retiring in the semi finals here a year ago.
Fritz’s grass court stats are pretty weak though (4-11 win/loss) and he was beaten all too easily in the end by a similarly consistent opponent as RBA last week in Borna Coric.
Talking of Coric, his extra power on serve should be enough for him against Jaume Munar, but I wouldn’t be stunned if Munar made it difficult for the defending champion.
Roger Federer will surely take a spot of revenge, if you can call it that, by defeating John Millman, but again I’m not so sure it’ll be straightforward for Federer, who should have lost to Paire here a year ago.
Indeed, Federer played a tie break in all bar one of his matches in Halle in 2018 and he skipped the whole of the clay swing then, so had far more time to rest and prepare than he has this time around.
Millman’s record on grass isn’t the best, with an 8-10 win/loss mark at main level and a hold/break total of 95.5, but I expect he’ll relish this challenge and I’m tempted by either tie break played at 2.50 or over 10.5 games in set one at 3.35 here.
I’ll be very disappointed if Jan-Lennard Struff loses to Laslo Djere, who has played just one match on grass in his career and lost it (to Paulo Lorenzi), but the last time I backed Struff outright he got walloped by Thiago Monteiro, so anything’s possible.
Peter Gojowczyk is one of those players who can be very good indeed on a quick surface if he’s feeling it and serving well, which he hasn’t been lately, but on his best form he could possibly shock Richard Gasquet, who looked less than fit again last week.
But most of the underdogs on Tuesday in Halle fall into the ‘maybe’ category, with only Molleker worthy of a small interest for me.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Molleker to beat Stakhovsky at 2.60
