Things didn’t go our way on day one of the Asian swing, with losses for two of my big-priced outrights in disappointing fashion in Zhuhai.
Peter Gojowczyk was poor against a good performance from Cam Norrie, while it was a similar story for Yoshihito Nishioka versus Albert Ramos and Ze Zhang was close, but couldn’t get the set we needed from him against Adrian Mannarino.
There are 12 matches on the card in total across our two tournaments on Tuesday, with six each in Chengdu and Zhuhai.
It was another tough day for the favourites in Chengdu on Monday, with one short-priced one losing (Kyle Edmund) and another (Dan Evans) just scraping through in a final set tie break having broken to stay in it late in the third set.
The third and final Chengdu favourite (Bradley Klahn) also had to win a final set tie break to progress and Tuesday’s favourites all look like they could either be tested or defeated in Chengdu and quite a few in Zhuhai.
Indeed, it could be a day to take a few of the favourites on, with Steve Johnson, Damir Dzumhur, and Pablo Carreno Busta all looking rather short in price, while Egor Gerasimov could well be vulnerable, too.
Steve Johnson lost his only prior clash with Pablo Andujar way back in 2013 as a 1.36 favourite on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells and given that he was a set ahead in that encounter Johnson would have been very short in-play to win that one.
But Andujar simply targeted the weak Johnson backhand and won the last two sets 6-1, 6-4 to take the win and of course Andujar was at it again on a hard court in New York, beating Kyle Edmund, Lorenzo Sonego and Alexander Bublik.
All three of those can serve hard and hit big forehands, like Johnson, and were still beaten by Andujar on outdoor hard, so I see no reason why the out of form Johnson should be anything like a cert for this one.
Johnson has lost 20 of his last 25 matches versus top-55 ranked opposition (Andujar is currently 53) and he’s lost three of his last four as a 1.50 to 1.70 favourite at main level.
He also has a weak record in China of 5-6 win/loss, with his only back-to-back wins here coming by way of a retirement followed by Di Wu.
Damir Dzumhur has lost his last four matches against Marco Cecchinato (admittedly on clay) and he’s hardly been in much better form than the Italian this season, so 1.40 seems a tad short to me.
I’ve been burned a couple of times by making the assumption that Cecchinato will bounce back to form this year so I probably won’t back him today, but the Italian won’t be overpowered by the lightweight Dzumhur and has a fair chance.
Cecchinato has been overpowered on the quicker surfaces this year, but Dzumhur is unlikely to be walloping down the aces and big forehands, so with Cecchinato by his own admission needing the points to avoid a drop in his ranking this may be closer than the odds suggest.
Pablo Carreno Busta also looks a tad short to me against Radu Albot, who may be another underdog that’s in with a good chance on Tuesday.
He beat PCB on grass at Wimbledon and again it’s not as if PCB will overpower Albot with his huge game. This one will be won on consistency and movement most likely.
PCB is another one with a weak record in China (2-6 win/loss) having lost his last five in a row in this part of the world and we know that Albot has enjoyed a fine season this year on surfaces he used to struggle on.
Looking at the stats of this pair on outdoor hard this season we find that Albot is 15-8 win/loss and with a hold/break total of 106.5 and that’s pretty close to PCB’s 108.9.
PCB has a quick turnaround as well after playing indoors in Metz on Friday to different conditions in China on Tuesday, so I’m happy to risk Albot at these prices.
Egor Gerasimov is another one that has a quick turnaround after playing on slow indoor hard in St. Petersburg on Saturday to quick outdoor hard in China on Tuesday and he faces what will surely be a motivated Zhe Li.
Zhe Li has beaten Bernard Tomic, Marcos Baghdatis, Dudi Sela and Yoshihito Nishioka this season, so he can play and Gerasimov may be priced up on his good run at home last week.
Li looks to have perhaps the best opportunity of the Chinese players and is worth adding to our list of underdogs for Tuesday.
Elsewhere, Juan Ignacio Londero has shown recently that he can play on the faster courts and isn’t just a clay courter, so he could be a tough opener for Dusan Lajovic.
I was hoping for a bigger price on Chengdu qualifier Kamil Majchrzak against the struggling Marton Fucsovics, but I didn’t get it and around evens seems a bit skinny.
Joao Sousa is another one that has to turnaround from Saturday in St. Petersburg on slow indoor hard to quick outdoor hard on Tuesday in China, but he served really well last week and might still be able to take down Hyeon Chung, whose fitness is seemingly always under question these days.
I think the best prices are the ones on Li, Albot and Andujar, but plenty of underdogs look viable on day two in China.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Andujar to beat Johnson at 2.45
0.5 points win Albot to beat Carreno Busta at 2.60
0.5 points win Li to beat Gerasimov at 3.55
