I think I’ll accept defeat in week five of the ATP Tour and look forward to week six instead after another day of dismal fortune in Pune and Cordoba on Friday.
Both of my remaining outrights were beaten (both started as favourites) with Ilya Ivashka blowing a 5-3 lead and two match points in his final set tie break against Jiri Vesely to lose 13-11.
After benefitting from an outrageous dead net cord to stave off break point midway through the decider, Vesely acknowledged his good fortune:
“It was very close. I would say it was definitely luck. He deserved it more than I did. I was very lucky.”
There was more to come though, as a woeful Corentin Moutet was brushed aside as a 1.50 chance by Andrej Martin in Cordoba after another daily bet went down in frustrating fashion in Pune.
I’d gone for a set one tie break between James Duckworth and Roberto Marcora and there was just one break chance all set – which of course was taken – before the second set went to a tie break instead.
Indeed, every match in Pune had at least one breaker in it and sometimes you just have to shake your head and move on.
Pune’s semis on Saturday are two more matches that the layers can’t really decide upon and given that Jiri Vesely and Ricardas Berankis were only split by two points after five sets and four-and-a-quarter hours five months ago perhaps it’s not surprising that they’re the prices they are.
That day in New York Vesely led by two sets to one and served for the match, but failed, and I’m not seeing any real edge for either man here in what looks a coin toss of a match.
But I’d give preference to Egor Gerasimov over James Duckworth in the second semi final, although fatigue might be a worry with Gerasimov after a late finish for the Belarusian on Friday night against Soon Woo Kwon.
Once again in Pune tie breaks seem rather likely here, with Duckworth having held serve 95% of the time this week and Gerasimov 87% in these quick Pune conditions.
Gerasimov has certainly been the better performer at this main level, with some very good showings against top opponents this past six months or so, while Duckworth has won just one of his last 10 main level matches against top-100 opposition going all the way back to 2016.
Gerasimov, by way of comparison, has won eight of his last 15 such matches, so he’s proven he can play at a high level, where Duckworth still has much to prove away from Challengers and has enjoyed a nice draw this week.
The price has come in overnight to 1.70 from 1.85 on Gerasimov though and after a tough battle with Kwon that ended late I’ll pass on that price.
Moving on to Montpellier and two interesting matches here, with the in-form Filip Krajinovic taking on Gael Monfils in what will be a second career clash after Monfils beat the Serb almost five years ago in a final set tie break on slow outdoor hard in Miami as a 1.15 chance.
A few Twitter readers will perhaps have noticed that I managed to get an amazing price of 100-1 about Krajinovic pre-tournament (for my usual very limited stake) and what are the chances of that coming off this week?
It’s be about right for Monfils to win this 7-6 in the third after being a set and a break down or something, but the way that Krajinovic has played this week suggests a tough battle for Lamonf here.
Lately, Monfils has realised his limitations in big matches, saying: “On big matches, I find it hard to get out of my comfort zone, I have to hit a little harder, take the ball a little earlier, make more daring choices.”
His lack of ability to take the game to opponents and revert to being way too passive (something many of his fellow countryman have also been guilty of) costs him too often and of this match-up with Krajinovic, Monfils says he’ll be more aggressive.
“Against Filip, I'm going to have to deliver a heavy strike to gain more ground. I will have to change the pace and take the ball earlier.”
These are things that don’t come naturally to Monfils and we’ll see if he can keep it up, but I fancy a tough battle here, with the over 2.5 sets appealing at 2.25 if you want to bet on a Monfils match.
Vasek Pospisil has played less than three hours in total to make the semi finals in Montpellier and how ironic it would be if he made the final here as a 40-1 shot after we backed him in the previous ATP 250 event in Auckland at roughly the same price.
Pospisil dismissed Denis Shapovalov (who he lost to in Auckland) and benefitted from the unsurprising retirement from Richard Gasquet on Friday, so he’ll be fresh, but David Goffin may be a step too far for the Canadian.
Goffin has a 9-4 record on indoor hard against the big servers in my database and Pospisil isn’t quite one of those, but he has that sort of a game and he’ll have to hope that Goffin has a poor day, as (serve aside) he doesn’t do anything as well as the Belgian.
Briefly in Cordoba, I watched Cristian Garin’s entire match against Pablo Cuevas yesterday and it was an odd one at first, with Garin lacking in every department, but it became clear he wasn’t well, having his blood pressure taken early on.
He was very up and down to begin with, but whatever treatment he had seemed to work and by the end he played pretty well, so I’d expect him to beat Andrej Martin today, assuming he’s fit and well.
Laslo Djere will probably be hindered a bit by the long, tough match he played last night against Juan Ignacio Londero, but if he’s got the legs he could well take a set or perhaps more against Diego Schwartzman.
The Argentine has only won one of his last four main level clay matches in straight sets when he’s been priced up shorter than 1.30 (and, of course, that one win was against Jaume Munar, who I’d taken to win a set) and Djere can be tough to break down.
I won’t be betting today, but if I were, I might risk the over sets in Monfils/Krajinovic.
