Debrief

 

Having come through a few sticky situations with Adrian Mannarino in week 23 we came out on the wrong side of three tight ones in week 24, with Jan-Lennard Struff, Jeremy Chardy and Lucas Pouille all losing in deciding sets in Halle and London.

Chardy was the most galling, as our 75-1 shot served for a straight sets win over top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas at Queen’s, but choked it, and ended up losing in a final set tie break with Felix Auger Aliassime his next opponent.

Steve Johnson was overpriced at 100-1 and his prospects looked good when second seed in Halle, Alexander Zverev incurred a knee injury, but if anything it made Zverev more aggressive, which is what he’s lacked lately.

 

Conditions and trends

 

Get set for some scorching heat this week in Antalya, as their weather forecast for the next week or so predicts 36C heat and if that’s right it’ll be like it was here two years ago when Marcos Baghdatis collapsed on court.

That year Yuichi Sugita was the last man standing, beating Adrian Mannarino in the final, but we need to think about the likely heat when making our picks this year.

Mannarino has made the final here in both its two years on tour so far, but both winners, Sugita and Damir Dzumhur, have been of the more measured style of play, which is interesting.

That suggests that it isn’t that quick in Antalya, but 56% of the matches there last year featured a tie break, so that would suggest it’s not exactly slow either.

In Eastbourne it probably won’t reach 36C, but it should be warm and there’s usually some pretty breezy conditions here, next to the coast.

Eastbourne hasn’t been a great place for qualifiers, with none making the quarter finals since 2009, but unseeded players have won the title here twice in the last four stagings of the tournament.

It’s not especially quick here, as 41% tie break matches attests to in the last four stagings of the tournament indicates, but net-rushing lefties, Feli Lopez and Mischa Zverev have won the title here in three of its last four stagings.
 

Antalya Open

With the possible exception of Viktor Troicki, the qualifying tournament in Antalya looks rather weak and unless Troicki (or perhaps Steve Darcis) has a comeback week it looks to me like the winner will come from the main draw field.

And it’s a really open one, with top seed Benoit Paire’s best showing in a grass court tournament being a couple of semi finals and surely Paire won’t be winning the week before a major twice in the same season.

If the brutally hot weather does arrive as forecast I can’t see Paire being last man standing and in his top half of the draw it may be the winner of defending champion Damir Dzumhur and Matt Ebden in round one that goes on to make the final.

Dzumhur pulled out of Halle injured last week and whether he just felt that he had little chance there and a good chance here and was saving himself for her remains to be seen, but it’s possible.

Ebden hasn’t shown much yet this grass swing and was irritable in defeat to Radu Albot in Halle, but this far weaker event is within his grasp if he returns to form.

He has said in the past that he likes playing in the heat, so on that basis and previous grass form Ebden is a fair contender here.

Jordan Thompson has obvious claims, based on his run to the Rosmalen final a couple of weeks ago, but perhaps it’s worth thinking about young guns Ugo Humbert and Miomir Kecmanovic instead.

I think they’re too inexperienced on grass to win here, but either of them might go well and I prefer a punt – and it is a punt – in the bottom half.

Our big-priced winner from Rosmalen, Adrian Mannarino, is as short as 4-1 to win here and that’s too short for me and more so given that he injured his hand in that Rosmalen final and pulled out of Queen’s.

The three that look like they could go well at double figure prices to me are Joao Sousa, Peter Gojowczyk and Bernard Tomic and I don’t mind risking Bernie at 20-1 in a weak field like this.

While he hasn’t shown a lot so far this grass swing, it isn’t over yet, and the last time he won a main level title (in Chengdu last year) he had lost five of previous six main level matches, so form means very little with Bernie.

I’m sure we’ll see something from Tomic at some point this grass swing and his low energy style might work well in 36C heat, where you don’t want to expend too much energy – something Bernie excels at.

He could easily lose two and two to Andreas Seppi in round one, but he has beaten the Italian twice in three meetings and Seppi, for me, is much too short at 8-1 given that he’s won 3 of his 383 career tournaments at main level.

Gojowczyk has the quality if he finds some form and quick, low bouncing courts will suit, but can he handle the extreme heat?

Sousa probably can and he may well go deep here, but Pablo Carreno Busta has shown very little on grass and has had a lot of injury problems of late, so I’ll just take a small punt on Tomic at a nice price and cross my fingers that he’s in the mood.

 

Nature Valley International

Kyle Edmund as favourite for a grass court tournament of a decent standard looks crazy, with Edmund all at sea on the grass so far in his career and in his top half of the draw opportunities exist for the likes of Steve Johnson and Jeremy Chardy – both of whom I backed last week.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert isn’t without a chance either at 20-1, while the winner of Dan Evans and Radu Albot could also go well in what looks a very open half, but surely Feli Lopez will be too fatigued to go on another run in Eastbourne, where he’s won the title twice.

Of these, I’m going to give another chance to Steve Johnson, who’s been playing well the last few weeks on the grass, but hasn’t had the luck, losing a tight one (as he so often does) to Gael Monfils and then running into a more aggressive than usual Alexander Zverev in Halle after crushing Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Johnson has a couple of grass titles already at main level and assuming he doesn’t get ambushed by Reilly Opelka in round one his quarter looks winnable, with Guido Pella, Taylor Fritz and Marco Cecchinato the opposition.

I could make a case for all barring Cam Norrie in quarter two, but Johnson looks the likely one in the opening quarter and I’m happy to back him at 12-1 this week.

In the bottom half I’m tempted to go with Sam Querrey in a section he should be winning on this surface, but his fitness is unknown after a spell out with an abdominal injury and just ahead of Wimbledon the chances of a withdrawal if he feels it again are high, I’d have thought.

It’s hard to see Fernando Verdasco or Leo Mayer being in the shake up on this surface, while John Millman has done very little on grass so far in his career and Dusan Lajovic is 4-17 win/loss on grass.

Gilles Simon will surely be exhausted, while Laslo Djere is very inexperienced on grass, so I’m tempted by qualifiers Tennys Sandgren and James Ward here at big prices.

Ward’s been playing well and only narrowly lost out to Simon last week and he crushed Denis Kudla in qualies here, so he’s feeling the ball well at the moment and beating Thomas Fabbiano and Laslo Djere is certainly doable to make the quarter finals.

His record here has been poor over the years as a wild card, but having come through qualies against two decent opponents confidence should be high and he can’t complain about this draw.

I’m not sure I see him winning the title though, but Sandgren is one of those players you have to catch when he gets on a roll, as he did in Auckland put of nowhere when he won the title as a 100-1 shot without dropping a set.

That was the week before a major, too, and while he’s not too experienced on grass he has the weapons to do huge damage if he’s on form and he was in qualies, winning a lot of points on first serve.

 

Conclusion

 

So, a big chance taken on Tomic at 201- in Antalya, while Americans Johnson at 12-1 and Sandgren at 33-1 are my two in Eastbourne.

 

Best Bet

 

1 point win Tomic to win Antalya at 20-1
1 point win Johnson to win Eastbourne at 12-1
0.5 points each-way Sandgren to win Eastbourne at 33-1