Federico Delbonis took us on a very similar rollercoaster ride on Friday to the one we endured with him at Indian Wells, but this time he came out on top in a final set breaker against an Aussie, rather than losing in one.
Then we came out on top in another grind when Albert Ramos eventually wore down Lucas Pouille in three sets, once again the Spaniard finishing the match much stronger than the faltering Frenchman.
All three of our outrights in the top half of the draw progressed and with high seeds Kei Nishikori and Dominic Thiem losing and Gael Monfils withdrawing (to the surprise of nobody) that was a boost as well.
Saturday’s 16 round two matches offer a few tempting betting options and the one I’ll start with today is to take the underdog in an all-Argentine clash.
Leonardo Mayer vs Guido Pella
Mayer has produced better stats than Pella in their last four career clashes in pretty much all categories and he scored a dozen more points than Pella, yet lost, the last time they met, which was on clay in Buenos Aires last month.
Pella has just played the big points better against Mayer lately, but that’s not going to continue indefinitely and looking at the other stats it’s all Mayer in this match-up.
Mayer has scored more points on serve and return, held serve more often (85% to 81%) and created more break point chances than Pella (0.48 per game to 0.31 per game), but he hasn’t taken enough of them (37.9% to Pella’s 47.4%).
The slow surface here in Miami should suit Mayer as much as it does Delbonis, with both men having long backswings and therefore needing more time on the ball and they get that on these courts.
The fact that Mayer has played three competitive sets here already this week should help his cause, while Pella is yet to find his feet at the Miami Open, breaking serve only 11.6% of the time in his eight career matches (3-5 win/loss).
You never know how Mayer will play, given his high-risk game style, but there’s enough in this for me to take a chance on him at this price.
Another wager I like the idea of at a tempting price is to take the over 2.5 sets in Grigor Dimitrov’s clash with Feli Lopez.
Dimitrov hasn’t played since the Australian Open, due to a shoulder problem, and his record here at the Miami Open is very average at best, with a 9-8 win/loss mark and a best result of the last-16.
What’s interesting in his Miami results are how much of a struggle pretty much all of his victories have been, with six of his last seven wins at this tournament (in completed matches) coming in a deciding set.
Against Lopez (admittedly most matches between the pair have been played on quicker surfaces than this) Dimitrov has really struggled to break serve, with Lopez holding 93% of the time versus the Bulgarian.
Lopez is clearly almost at the end of his career now, but a rusty Dimitrov in slow conditions would be delighted with a 2-0 win here.
Daniil Medvedev has really struggled against Adrian Mannarino in their three career clashes so far, with the awkward lefty game of the Frenchman coming out on top all three times, with Medvedev holding serve only 59.5% of the time (Mannarino 81%).
Indeed, all-time against lefties at main level, Medvedev is 9-9 win/loss and with a hold/break total of 100.8, but he has won his last five against left-handers in straight sets now, so maybe the Russian has overcome that slight weakness.
I still think it’s slower than ideal for Medvedev here in Miami (and Indian Wells though) and his record in M1000 events isn’t great yet, with a 9-15 win/loss mark.
Taking Mannarino on the handicap is certainly a possible option here, as is taking on Medvedev’s mate Karen Khachanov, whose price allows scope for backing Jordan Thompson on the handicap.
Khachanov is very much unproven here in Miami so far, with a 1-3 record, in which four matches he’s only held serve 73.8% of the time and Thompson is proving a tough nut to crack at the moment.
Khachanov has gone back to his old racquet in an attempt to find some form, but it’s asking a lot for him to come here and beat the determined Aussie easily in his first match of the tournament.
Thompson +4.5 games looks the bet here at 1.66 or over 21.5 games at 1.89.
Kevin Anderson often shows up rusty after a lay off and in these slow conditions he’ll be made to play a lot of balls by Jaume Munar, who did well against Anderson, despite the scoreline, in much faster conditions in Pune earlier in the year.
Anderson should have too much, but I’d be looking at the 2-1 win for him there at a price of around the 3.90 mark.
David Goffin looks very short indeed at 1.13 considering his lack of form, which showed itself in a struggle against Casper Ruud and a loss to Salvatore Caruso at the Phoenix Challenger.
I’m not so taken with the idea of Pablo Andujar getting the win, but in his current form it’s hard to see Goffin winning as easily as these odds suggest.
Joao Sousa is another one with chances against a big server on these slow courts when he takes on Steve Johnson, who’s 3-5 win/loss at the Miami Open.
Dan Evans is another lively underdog against Denis Shapovalov, who the Brit has beaten a couple of times in the past, while Diego Schwartzman should have the right conditions in these courts to blunt the big game of Reilly Opelka.
So, plenty of viable options on day four, but I’ll stick with three bets today.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Mayer to beat Pella at 2.18
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Dimitrov/Lopez at 2.32
0.5 points win over 21.5 games in Thompson/Khachanov at 1.89
