Debrief

 

It was another loss in a deciding match for us last week (our sixth deciding match outright loss from eight this season) when our 33-1 quarter winner bet on Sam Querrey fell at the final hurdle to Rafael Nadal as a sizeable underdog.

And once again it was a major dominated by the elite, with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer the two men that will contest the final.

 

Conditions and trends

 

There’s the last knockings of the grass season in Newport at the Hall of Fame Open and this is a ‘proper’ grass event that’s played on slicker, low bouncing grass – a throwback to the old days of grass court tennis.

Only John Isner (three times) has broken the ‘Casino Curse’ of number one seeds failing to win here since it began in 1976 and it’s of plenty of interest to us, as there have been some very big priced winners and finalists in Newport.

The most recent finalists here have been: Johnson, Ramanathan, Isner, Ebden, Karlovic, Muller and Ram.

In Bastad at the Swedish Open they play on slow clay next to the coast, so it’s windy and features the fewest tie breaks of any tournament on the tour.

No qualifier has ever made the Bastad final and no number one seed has made the final since David Ferrer won the tournament back in 2012.

At the Croatia Open Umag it’s also on the slow side and again very few tie breaks are played here, but qualifiers have gone well in Umag, with two champions and a semi finalist having started in qualies in the last five years.

There have been numerous double-figure priced finalists here as well, so it’s certainly one that interests me, with no top seed having made the final in Umag since Nikolay Davydenko won it in 2009.
 

Swedish Open, Bastad

Starting with Bastad, then, as the draw is already out and we have prices, of which a few stand out.

The first one is a mammoth 150-1 about Henri Laaksonen, who really seems to enjoy this tournament, having made the semis last year as a lucky loser and the quarters the year before.

The Swiss player only lost to David Ferrer in a final set tie break in the quarter final in 2017 and to Richard Gasquet in the 2018 semi final and he’s beaten the likes of Pablo Cuevas (this year’s favourite), Matteo Berrettini and Juan Ignacio Londero in Bastad in the past.

He’s got a tough-looking draw this year as well, with Nicolas Jarry in round one, but Jarry has never played here before, has a high ball toss that may not fare so well in the wind in Bastad and for me Jarry's more effective in quicker conditions.

Top seed Cristian Garin is an obvious problem in this first quarter for Laaksonen, (Garin beat Laaksonen in the Houston quarters not too long ago) but Garin will probably face Jeremy Chardy first up and Chardy has won three of his four against Garin on clay.

Chardy should have won the fourth as well, but blew five match points to beat Garin in that same Houston event that Garin beat Laaksonen in back in April.

So, clearly, Chardy represents a danger to Garin, but Chardy hasn’t made a final on clay himself for 10 years, so I’m happy to take a small punt on a huge outsider in Laaksonen in that quarter.

Quarter two is competitive as well, with Pablo Cuevas taking on the likes of Federico Delbonis, Joao Sousa, and Braunschweig Challenger winner Thiago Monteiro and all three have posed problems for Cuevas in the past.

Monteiro wasted three match points to beat Cuevas in their last clash on the clay in Rio and comes here in confident mood after that Challenger success on Saturday.

Delbonis has beaten Cuevas on clay and has the sort of power that might go well here and he’s in form, having made the final of the Perugia Challenger this weekend, but his ball toss is worryingly high for Bastad’s wind.

Sousa has three wins over Cuevas, but all were on indoor hard and Cuevas has won all three on clay, however Sousa will be confident as well after a good run at Wimbledon.

Cuevas has been playing Bundesliga in recent days, as several of these players in the Bastad draw have, and he’s surely a threat, but he’s much too short for me at a price of 4.50.

In the bottom half I’m happy to take on Richard Gasquet, who looks like he’s all but done at this level at the moment due to injuries and he’ll need a huge improvement to replicate his run to the final here a year ago.

The Gasman doesn’t look like he can move properly at the moment and the man that beat him at the French Open looks like a decent 25-1 shot to me.

That’s Juan Ignacio Londero, who’s another that’s been playing Bundesliga to get used to the clay under his feet again, and after a promising showing at the French Open the Argentine could go well at a big price.

He faces a qualifier first (hopefully not Pablo Carreno Busta) and then the other one that I think might go well from this quarter of the draw, Hugo Dellien (most likely) in round two, assuming that Dellien beats the struggling Ernests Gulbis in round one.

Gasquet looks there for the taking right now and Dellien at 50s and Londero at 25s seem the ones likely to take advantage.

Dellien won the Rome Challenger just before Wimbledon, but suffered a poor loss at the Braunschweig event a few days back and Londero should fancy this, having won six of his nine clashes with Dellien and beaten Gasquet in Paris before finding Nadal too strong, but he was far from disgraced against Rafa.

The final quarter looks tough, with all of them having claims on their best form, and if Pablo Carreno Busta comes through qualies and gets drawn in there as well it’ll be almost impossible to call.

Casper Ruud has compiled some very good stats on clay this past 12 months and he’d probably be my pick in this section, as he should beat Damir Dzumhur, who’s rarely fit these days, and he also took out Jaume Munar in Bastad 12 months ago (3-0 head-to-head in Ruud’s favour over Munar).

Munar is no cert to beat the tough Roberto Carballes Baena and the Bastad finalists of 2016 are also in this section, too, in Albert Ramos (who I tipped to win Bastad that year) and Fernando Verdasco, who Ramos took out in that title match.

Verdasco has a solid record here of 22-11 win/loss and two finals, but he’s yet to win it, while Ramos has been struggling for form again lately, but he is going well at the Perugia Challenger this week and will probably face Delbonis in the final there.

Ruud would be my fancy here, but 12-1 is a bit short in this tough quarter and he was beaten by Monteiro in the Braunschweig Challenger last week.

The presence of Carreno Busta in qualifying makes early picks a bit risky, but PCB isn’t the player he was at the moment after injuries and he’s lost seven of his last nine on clay and hasn’t made a final on the dirt for over two years.
 

Hall of Fame Open, Newport

Nothing strikes me as a bet in Umag this year, with the qualifiers not really looking capable of making the final there, but that’s not the case in Newport, where any of the four could possibly go deep.

This is a real grass court event, with a very low, almost ‘dead’ bounce and that should suit Tim Smyczek, who made the semi finals here last year, and also the man that beat him in that semi, Ramkumar Ramanathan.

Smyczek is certainly capable of beating the woefully out of form Mischa Zverev, who’s a surprisingly short price at around 10-1 in places to win here this week.

Even a return to grass has seemingly done nothing to halt Zverev’s slide down the rankings (now number 211) and for Smyczek, who beat another decent grass courter in John-Patrick Smith in qualies can defeat Zverev and Guido Andreozzi, who beat a poor Ivo Karlovic on Monday.

After that he may face Jordan Thompson, but that’s no certainty, with Marcel Granollers in rare form here on Monday and if he plays like that again last year’s semi finalist Granollers could spring a surprise.

Thompson has only won one of his three matches here in Newport so far and I’m happy to look elsewhere.

I’m not totally convinced abut the other high seed in the bottom half of the draw either and that’s Adrian Mannarino, who was crushed by Granollers in the last eight here a year ago and who’s never bettered the quarters in six attempts in Newport.

Viktor Troicki also has a fine pedigree on grass, but doesn’t look anything like the player he was, with his forehand prone to bouts of severe weakness, so I prefer Alex Bolt at 45-1 in this fourth quarter of the draw.

Bolt has a decent record on grass at Challenger level and while he’s yet to produce much at main level he should enjoy conditions here and as we’ve seen in the past qualifiers and rank outsiders have gone really well in Newport.

Bolt faces the wildly unpredictable Alexander Bublik (0-3 on grass at main level and 5-8 at all levels) in round one, which is winnable on this surface and I’m happy to side with Bolt and Smyczek in this half at the prices.

Ramanathan is in the top half and faces perhaps a tougher draw against Sergiy Stakhovsky then Ugo Humbert and probably Steve Johnson, so I’ll overlook Ramanathan this time.

I am tempted to take top seed John Isner on in this half, as he looked pretty rusty at Wimbledon and the low bounce here might be his undoing, although he’s handled it pretty well in the past.

I’m not sure how fit he is and certainly his serve wasn’t very effective by his standards when we profited by taking him on with Mikhail Kukushkin at the All England Club.

The three that stand out for me are Matt Ebden, Steve Johnson and Denis Kudla and at the prices Ebden is favoured, but he’s been in poor form for some time now and retired citing vertigo at the Winnetka Challenger last week, but that doesn't sound like a definite reason not to back him this week on grass. 

Kudla is capable, but too short at 14-1, while Johnson is an obvious contender, but has struggled this grass swing.

So, I think I’ll just take a small chance on two of the qualifiers in the bottom half.

 

Conclusion

 

An early look then at Bastad leads me to take a few big-priced ones, with draws and prices still to be settled in Umag and Newport.

Laaksonen is a real punt, but 150-1 is very big on a player that has shown his best form at this tournament, while Londero has the draw to go deep at 25-1.

Nothing stands out as a bet in Umag, but two qualifiers Alex Bolt and Tim Smyczek are the ones at big prices for me in Newport.

 

Best Bets

 

1 point win Londero to win Bastad at 26.0
0.5 points each-way Laaksonen to win Bastad at 150-1
0.5 points win Smyczek to win Newport at 36.0
0.5 points win Bolt to win Newport at 46.0