Conditions and trends

I talked about the playing conditions here in Madrid in my outright preview and it looks like it might play on the quicker side on Monday if the forecast of a warm, dry day is correct.

There’s also little wind forecast for Monday, so it could conceivably be a decent day for the bigger servers in these conditions.

As far as historical trends are concerned, Madrid, since 2011, has produced an average of 31% underdog winners, which is pretty much par, while it has seen exactly the same percentage of tie break matches (37%) as in Rome, which is a little surprising given the altitude here.

In round one over the last seven years 35% of the matches have been won by the underdog and there are a few possible options among the nine matches on Monday at the Caja Magica.
 

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Mikhail Kukushkin

The altitude here in Madrid makes this tournament one clay event that Kukushkin can be effective at with his flat hitting and the Kazakh was rather unlucky a year ago not to defeat Kevin Anderson (who went on to make the semi finals) in straight sets in round one.

Kuku was a set up and into a tie break in set two when he became very passive and his chance was gone, but he can play effectively in Madrid, as that match showed, and on Monday he faces an opponent who’s lost eight of his last 11 matches in Madrid.

Kohlschreiber has often found it tough to get going in this tournament; often after arriving either late and/or dejected from a tough loss in Munich just days before and that could be the case again.

The veteran German lost to Matteo Berrettini from a set up in the quarter finals this time in Munich and it’s very possible that Kuku might well simply be the more motivated of the pair.

Kukushkin’s usually a quicker starter than the often-slow-to-get-going Kohlschreiber and backing Kuku to win set one at around 2-1 is a fair wager, but at these prices the 1.90 on Kukushkin with a 1.5 set start in the handicap looks the bet.

He’s been playing well this season and reached a career high in the rankings only a couple of months back and while most clay events aren’t at all helpful to his playing style this is one where he could spring a surprise or two.

Given how much slower and lacking in mobility that Pablo Carreno Busta appeared to be (compared to his days as a top-tenner) in Estoril last week I wouldn’t be surprised if Reilly Opelka were able to do something against PCB in these conditions.

PCB has lost 16 of his last 22 matches against the big servers in my database and in his nine matches against them on clay PCB has won only two in straight sets – both against Gilles Muller in Estoril.

The Spaniard is only 1-4 win/loss in his career in Madrid and while Opelka has looked very ordinary, to put it kindly, on ‘normal’ clay of late he has qualified here, beating Juan Ignacio Londero on Sunday, so he might be a tougher proposition with a bit of altitude to help him.

I’m still awaiting prices for this one at the time of writing, but Opelka is worth considering to take a set or the overs is a possibility here, too if he’s a decent underdog, which he may well not be.

Taylor Fritz is playing some reasonable stuff on clay this swing and he does usually up his game when facing a big name, so he’s another possible underdog to add to the shortlist on Monday against Grigor Dimitrov.

I doubt we’ll get a big enough price on Fritz for my liking, but he’s capable in these conditions.

Gael Monfils didn’t look in great form in Estoril either and he’s often found Andreas Seppi a difficult opponent to put away, winning only two of their seven career clashes (all on hard or grass) in straight sets.

In their last six career clashes that there’s data for Seppi has held serve 80.6% of the time and Monfils 82.1% of the time, so it’s by no means been easy for Monfils in this match-up.

The quicker conditions will no doubt be as much of a relief for Seppi as they are for Kukushkin and it’s always worth considering the 2-1 win for Monfils in these sort of potentially tricky matches, where Monfils is a shortish favourite.

That’s a 3.90 chance on Monday and seven of Monfils’ last eight main level best-of-three set matches on clay have gone to a deciding set.

Martin Klizan is another one that – on a good day – could easily get the better of Marin Cilic, who’s lacking matches at the moment and doesn’t have a great record in Madrid anyway.

This pair haven’t met since 2012 and Klizan, who disappointed last week for us in Munich, may have a decent advantage having come through qualies (qualifiers went 4-2 win/loss in round one here a year ago and only one of six failed to win a set) in these conditions.

In a typical Klizan scoreline, he won the opener 6-1 against Cilic the last time they met and then got bagelled and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar sort of scenario again here. Klizan will probably be around 6-4 to win the opener, which is a bit too short for me.

Best Bets

0.5 points win Kukushkin +1.5 sets to beat Kohlschreiber at 1.90
0.5 points win Monfils to beat Seppi 2-1 at 3.90