We’ve got 15 matches on the schedule at the Erste Bank Open and Swiss Indoors on Wednesday and the underdogs that look like they could some something against the favourites include: Mikhail Kukushkin, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Dennis Novak, Marton Fucsovics, Frances Tiafoe, and perhaps Marin Cilic and Pablo Andujar.
Mikhail Kukushkin has beaten Borna Coric in all three of their career meetings – and all on clay, which is usually not a good surface for the flat-hitting Kazakh.
On that alone you’d have to give Kuku a shot against Coric, but if we add to the mix the weak record of Coric in indoor hard and his recent poor form and split with form coach Riccardo Piatti last month.
Coric made the final of St Petersburg on indoor hard last month, but he benefitted from a retirement by Marton Fucsovics, a three-set win over Casper Ruud and a similarly tough win over Joao Sousa to do it.
Daniil Medvedev was way too good in the final (no disgrace there) but that week had a fair bit of fortune in it and overall Coric is 18-20 win/loss at main level on indoor hard and with a hold/break total of just 98.7.
The three clay clashes between Coric and Kuku were tight, with Kuku winning all three tie breaks and taking almost 50% of his break point chances (Coric 35.7% of his).
Both men created a virtually identical amount of break chances and Kuku simply played better on the big points and one clash was in Davis Cup when Kukushkin often finds his very best level.
Coric has struggled all year to win matches in straight sets, with only four straight sets match wins from 38 played on the ATP Tour over the best of three sets in 2019.
One of those was against Di Wu, another versus Jaume Munar on grass, a third against Pierre Hugues Herbert on clay and the last versus Cam Norrie, also on the clay.
The problem with backing Kuku to win here is his price of 2.30, which isn’t great value if you consider he was priced between 3.22 and 3.50 in his three clay wins over Coric, so I’m happy to take the over 2.5 sets here at 2.33.
Kuku should be very keen to defend the 180 ranking points he gained here in Vienna last year, while Coric usually fights hard even when not playing at his best, so I’m expecting a battle here.
Dennis Novak is one of those players that seems to enjoy the big stage and he might well have his moments playing at home against an out of form Gael Monfils.
Lamonf has been poor since the US Open, with suggestions of a shoulder problem being made, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this one being closer than the odds suggest.
Monfils offered very little against Jannik Sinner last week and we’ll have to wait and see if we get a better effort here, but 3.70 about Novak winning the opening set is worthy of consideration.
Our outright, Marton Fucsovics, has every chance against Karen Khachanov, who he beat on clay as a 2.80 underdog in Davis Cup a couple of years ago.
Khachanov did enough (which wasn’t much) against a poor Hubert Hurkacz who coughed up 42 unforced errors in two sets in round one here in Vienna this week and we’ll see if Khachanov can rise to what I hope will be a sterner challenge from Fucsovics.
Frances Tiafoe was two points away from beating Dan Evans in straight sets when they met at Delray Beach back in February and Tiafoe was also 4-1 up in set three of that match on a windy day in Florida on outdoor hard.
Evans used his slice to keep the ball out of Tiafoe’s strike zone nicely that day and the conditions made it hard for Tiafoe to play his aggressive game, but without the wind indoors he has a shot at reversing the result of that one.
Ricardas Berankis has struggled lately and despite his much better record on indoor hard than Pablo Andujar I wouldn’t back the Lithuanian here at 1.45.
Berankis was beaten by a clay grinder on indoor hard in Moscow last week in Roberto Carballes Baena and he’s actually lost 10 of his last 14 matches (12 of which were played on hard courts) against the ‘baseline grinders’ in my database.
He’s also lost four of his last five matches when priced up between 1.40 and 1.59 at main level, so given his lack of form lately and struggles versus the grinding style of player Berankis may be vulnerable.
Adrian Mannarino is one of several players in action on Wednesday in Vienna and Basel that were playing in finals on Sunday and Mannarino is perhaps the one that I suspect may well offer less than an energetic performance today.
The Frenchman has played a lot lately, making the final in Zhuhai less than a month ago and after Manna faded away badly in the second set of the Moscow final on Sunday he may well not fancy this match against a big server like Sam Querrey.
After losing that Zhuhai final Mannarino lost in his first match the next week in Tokyo and he’s either lost in his first or second match every time the week after playing a main level hard court (indoor or outdoor) final – which is five times in all.
He’s also 14-32 win/loss versus big servers (lost his last two against Querrey), so I’m not keen on Mannarino’s chances here, but this is Querrey and he’s 1-3 in Vienna and forgot how to serve last week against Pablo Carreno Busta, so you take your chances with him.
Of the others that played finals on Sunday the best draw is probably the one that Filip Krajinovic has got against his fellow Serb Laslo Djere, who hasn’t played at all since the US Open, having contracted a virus earlier in the season.
Djere hasn’t won a match since Umag and is 1-7 win/loss all-time on indoor hard, with a weak service hold/break total of just 78.5, so it looks a fair draw for Krajinovic unless it gets complicated playing a fellow Serb.
Krajinovic’s fitness always worries me as well and he didn’t play for a month after his last main level final in Budapest, but it he’s fit he should be winning this.
Andrey Rublev may well have a bit of a come down after winning the title in his home city of Moscow, having previously failed to win a single match in that tournament, but his opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime has looked jaded lately.
FAA was last seen withdrawing from the doubles in Shanghai citing fatigue, but it may be the case that a week or so off is enough and he may catch Rublev at the right time here.
Denis Shapovalov was on fire on serve last week in Stockholm and he, too, may be facing a physically impaired opponent in Pablo Carreno Busta, who had back problems during his Stockholm semi final loss to Krajinovic.
PCB beat Shapo only a few weeks ago in quick conditions in Chengdu, but is he fit enough to do it again after a lot of tennis lately for the Spaniard?
Finally, Stan Wawrinka probably should have beaten Andy Murray (Stan led by a set and 3-1) in the Antwerp final, but he had a good week nonetheless in Belgium and playing at home on an indoor hard court he should be too much for Pablo Cuevas.
That said, he doesn’t have much of a record in Basel, with an 8-9 win/loss mark and a hold/break total of 102, so maybe Cuevas can keep things close in this second career clash (Cuevas won the only other on clay in Monte-Carlo in 2017 as a 2.70 underdog).
So, loads of options on Wednesday and I’ll opt for the over 2.5 sets in the Kukushkin/Coric match and a punt on Novak to start strongly against Monfils.
Best Bets
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Kukushkin/Coric at 2.33
0.5 points win Novak to win set one at 3.70
