We landed an odds-against winner on Friday in Montreal when Fabio Fognini took the set he needed against Rafael Nadal, but it wasn’t a good day for the outrights, as our pair were bumped off the schedule by the rain.
That means that either Gael Monfils or Roberto Bautista Agut will have to play two matches in a day on Saturday – the second one being against a fresh Nadal.
I can be forgiven, I think, for feeling a tad deflated by the continuing rotten luck in the outrights and now the weather has made it a huge ask for our guys in Montreal, with the forecast suggesting rain again on Saturday.
If the forecast is correct it’ll be raining at 13:00 local time when RBA and Monfils are set to clash and that could last until 16:00, which would mean virtually back-to-back matches for the winner.
As if things aren’t tough enough as a punter, with even the weather intervening, we also have to cope with conflicting information from the tournament about the playing conditions.
The tournament director said earlier in the week that he’d slowed it down this year, but Hawkeye has now clocked the main court at 43.4 CPI, which is way faster than in the past here and much quicker than it appears to the naked eye.
If that’s correct that would make it ‘medium-fast’ and the fastest M1000 of the year, ahead of Shanghai, which doesn’t seem like it’s the case from watching the matches.
So, we have only one to look at on Saturday, really, and that’s the all-Russian affair between Daniil Medvedev and Karen Khachanov, which is scheduled for not before 15:00 local time (20:00 UK).
Karen Khachanov vs Daniil Medvedev
I said yesterday that Alexander Zverev was in horrible form and he was pretty much the same on Friday when his woeful back court game and dismal second serve reared their heads yet again versus Khachanov.
Once again the stats were dire for Zverev, who won just 32% on that second serve to go with eight double faults in nine service games and it was pretty easy in the end for Khachanov to just let it all happen to the hapless German.
Today should be much tougher for Khachanov, who’ll face his Davis Cup team-mate Medvedev, whose form continues to be impressive on the North American hard courts.
Medvedev disposed of the fatigued and cold-ridden Dominic Thiem nicely on Friday in a match-up that favours Medvedev anyway on a hard court – and more so if it’s as fast as Hawkeye claims it to be.
But this will be a very different affair and these matches between two friends and Davis Cup colleagues and occasional doubles partners can be unpredictable affairs that are mentally challenging for both players.
Khachanov said after beating Medvedev at home in the semi finals of Moscow last autumn: “It is tough to play against Daniil because we are good friends, he's had a good season, showing good results this year.”
Indeed, Medvedev came into that match having won Winston-Salem and Tokyo, yet he was beaten by Khachanov and I can’t help but think back to Medvedev’s only previous M1000 semi final when he put in a lame effort against Dusan Lajovic.
It could simply be that Khachanov is a better big match player than Medvedev when it comes to this sort of occasion and while Medvedev’s form has caught the eye of the layers, who make him a 1.47 shot today, that is too short for me.
It’s clear to see why he’s so short given the respective form of this pair all season and also in the last few weeks, but we see on a regular basis (particularly between French players) that matches between close colleagues do often go against the form book.
I like the idea, for small stakes, of taking Khachanov to make a fast start in this one and we’ll see if Medvedev’s nerves will handle the occasion of being favourite against his mate in a Masters semi final.
In Moscow the Khachanov backhand stood up well against Medvedev’s, which you’d think would be a weak spot for Khachanov and if that wing is solid again today he’s not without a chance of the upset.
Medvedev’s got to be favourite here, but 1.47 is short, and the 2.45 on Khachanov winning the opener looks worth a small wager here.
Meanwhile, Rafael Nadal’s luck this week has been outrageous, with not only the weather helping him out seemingly, but he also had Fabio Fognini’s ongoing injury problems assisting him on Friday.
Fognini was comfortably beating the Spaniard early on in their quarter final before the Italian’s movement was severely hampered by his ankle problem and a below par Rafa, having improved for the loss of set one, was able to win easily in the end.
It’s hard to see the equally injury-prone Gael Monfils beating RBA and Nadal back-to-back, while RBA needs to shake off the attitude he usually has against Nadal, which is that he’s somehow inferior to his fellow Spaniard.
He’s only once made it to 10 games in a set against Nadal in three meetings, but all of them were on clay and maybe, just maybe on outdoor hard, where RBA is at his best (along with grass) he can do some damage,
The scheduling has probably put and end to that hope, but we’ll just have to wait and hope in that semi final.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Khachanov to win set one at 2.45
