It was one winner and one loss on Wednesday in Indian Wells when Karen Khachanov didn’t need the handicap to take down John Isner as underdog, but Philipp Kohlschreiber failed to get close to taking Gael Monfils to a decider.
Our remaining outright hope, Dominic Thiem, continues to go well though and he defeated Ivo Karlovic in straight sets to set up an intriguing quarter final clash with Monfils on Thursday.
We’re told to expect a sunny day in Indian Wells on Thursday, with no more than average wind speeds of around 15kph, so conditions should be fine for tennis.
Milos Raonic vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Kecmanovic after getting past Yoshihito Nishioka by way of retirement has become the first player from qualifying (yes, he’s a lucky loser, but still…) to make the last eight at Indian Wells since Vinny Spadea in 2003.
Spadea went on to make the semis that year (lost to Hewitt) and I wouldn’t be stunned if Kecmanovic did the same, with Raonic still for me playing a fair way below the level we’ve seen from him in years gone by.
The Canadian was rather fortunate to get past Marcos Giron (who beat Kecmanovic in a final set tie break in qualies) in a very mediocre display that required Raonic to up his game and rely a little bit on Giron’s nerves fraying to win the last five games and the match.
Against Jan-Lennard Struff on Wednesday Raonic was again rather poor and had Struff not once again failed to press home his advantage when he had the chances and was much the better player early on Raonic would have been in trouble again.
The plus point for Kecmanovic is that he’s faced the Raonic serve before (in Brisbane at the start of this season) and while he didn’t create a break point that day he was more than competitive off the ground in quicker conditions than these at Indian Wells.
So, he knows what he’s up against and he’s got very little to lose here, having already climbed into the top-100 in the world on the back of this week’s ranking points.
He’d go as high as 64 in the world if he beats Raonic, but I expect that the Canadian will probably be too strong on the big points and end up taking the win.
But the +3.5 games on Kecmanovic or 2-1 to Raonic appeal for a small wager, with Raonic having only broken the Serb once in that Brisbane clash, and we may just see a more competitive affair (along the lines of the Raonic/Giron match) than the layers expect here.
In the evening match at (not before) 19:00 local time the chances of our man Dominic Thiem getting the win are surely better than his price of 2.30 suggests.
Gael Monfils has found the Austrian a tough opponent so far in their careers, with Thiem winning all four encounters on clay, indoor hard and outdoor hard.
Thiem defeated Monfils here at Indian Wells two years ago, although Monfils looked well below par physically (for a change) that day, but there were no such excuses for Lamonf when he was blitzed two and one by Thiem on clay in Buenos Aires in their most recent clash a year ago.
This season’s excellent form that Monfils has shown has made him favourite for this one, but similarly to the Isner/Khachanov match yesterday it’s not based on the match-up.
Isner hadn’t broken Khachanov in nine sets (now it’s 11 sets) and lost most of their tie breaks, yet Isner was a 1.6 favourite and here Monfils has held serve 65.4% of the time in his matches against Thiem, who’s held his own deal 87.7% of the time against the Frenchman.
In every category Thiem has a big lead (10% more points won on serve and 11% more won on return) and while those stats include clay matches, I’ve said a few times this week that these conditions are about as good as it gets for Thiem on a hard court.
The way that Monfils is playing suggests it’ll be a lot closer than their past clashes and maybe he’ll final get the win over Thiem this time, but he looks no value at all at a price like 1.6 and I’m happy to let our outright ride here.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Raonic to beat Kecmanovic 2-1 at 3.90
