There’s no week off after the Australian Open in the packed 2020 ATP Tour calendar, so we’re right back on the tour beat in week five, with the start of the South American Golden Swing on the clay and hard court events in France and India.
Conditions and trends
The Tata Open Maharashtra is played on a Plexipave outdoor hard court and in 2019 they used Babolat FO balls and so far it’s proved quick in Pune, which has an altitude of around 560m.
It’s only been on the tour for two years, so data is limited to that, but already 56% of its matches have featured at least one tie break and that’s despite matches being played later in the day to combat the heat.
Ivo Karlovic made the final as a 50-1 chance last year, losing out to Kevin Anderson, so big servers have their conditions here, but Gilles Simon won it in 2018.
It’s moved a month in the calendar this year, so it won’t be the opening tournament of the year and that may lead to fewer surprise results, potentially.
There aren’t many surprises usually at the Open Sud de France, which has always been won by one of the top-five seeds and no qualifier has ever made the final in Montpellier.
It’s played on a GreenSet indoor hard surface and it’s usually quite quick here, ranked just outside the top-10 in terms of matches featuring a tie break.
The Cordoba Open was in it’s inaugural year in 2019 and it was won by a qualifier (Juan Ignacio Londero) at a big price and Guido Pella was a 20-1 finalist, so with it being the first clay action of the season it could be ripe for a big-priced winner again.
There’s a hint of altitude around in Cordoba at 350 to 544m and there were a lot of tie breaks (perhaps as a consequence of that altitude) in its first year on tour, with 44% of it’s matches featuring at least one breaker.
Tata Open, Pune
Whenever I see Benoit Paire as a top seed the week after a major I immediately fancy taking him on and more so after his comments about his commitment levels for this tournament.
“I do India. I have a friend who goes to the Philippines; maybe I'll do this for a week, relax, go to the beach or by the pool, drink cocktails – that's what I like.”
You never know with Benoit, he may decide he fancies it after a week chilling by the beach sipping Pina Coladas, but in likely very hot temperatures after a ton of tennis in the opening weeks of the season a tank seems more likely.
The fact that 69th ranked Ricardas Berankis is number two seed this week gives an indication of the quality of the field in Pune and Paire should be winning this, but I’m happy to chance my arm on him not bothering.
Paire aside this is as wide open an event as I can remember, with pretty much any of the main draw or qualifiers capable of winning, so I’m very interested in having a wager or two in Pune this week.
In the top half of the draw against Paire, I’d fancy the chances of Peter Gojowczyk and Egor Gerasimov in these conditions, but James Duckworth won the Challenger event here in Pune only a few months ago, so he knows the conditions, too.
The qualifying draw arguably has more well-known names in it than the main draw, with Robin Haase, Ernests Gulbis, Viktor Troicki, Malek Jaziri, Matt Ebden, Lukas Rosol, and Ilya Ivashka all in the qualies at some point (Ivashka was later bumped up to the main draw).
Of those that did qualify, Lukas Rosol isn’t without a chance in these conditions in this field, while similarly, Viktor Troicki on his form of old could cause a problem or two in the bottom half, but we haven’t seen much from either of this pair for some time.
I’d probably go with Gerasimov or Gojowczyk in the top half at the prices, but the odds that appeal most here are about Ilya Ivashka at 25-1 in the bottom half of the draw.
The seeds in the bottom half all look very beatable, with Salvatore Caruso having played only three career matches on outdoor hard at this level (lost all three) and while Stefano Travaglia has a bit more experience than that on hard he’s still only played 10 (4-6 win/loss).
In any case it’ll probably be too quick here for that pair, while second seeded Ricardas Berankis is 17-33 win/loss in his last 50 main level matches on outdoor hard and with a very mediocre service hold/break total of 91.5.
Ilya Ivashka though has the ability to fare well in this sort of company and he showed much of that talent when he should have taken down Kevin Anderson in Melbourne, but faltered with the finish line in sight.
A repeat of that level would see him go close this week and 25-1 is a decent price on the Belarusian player.
There are plenty of other options though and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sumit Nagal go well on home soil, while Ivo Karlovic is an obvious threat on his form here a year ago and he played well in Melbourne, too.
Jiri Vesely’s form is impossible to fathom and I can’t imagine the very hot conditions here will suit him, but perhaps another home player Ramkumar Ramanathan might go well, too, with this year's weak Pune field being a likely spur for the home players to possibly grab an ATP title.
Cases could be made for quite a few in Pune, but at the prices I like Ivashka.
Open Sud de France, Montpellier
If history is any guide, this year’s Montpellier will be won by one of Gael Monfils, David Goffin, Denis Shapovalov, Grigor Dimitrov or Felix Auger-Aliassime.
They’re our top five seeds this year and for me this is the tournament that holds by far the least appeal as a betting medium this week.
French players have won here in seven of the last nine years and never has a Montpellier final been contested that didn’t feature at least one French player.
I’ll be very brief here, as I don’t fancy having a bet in this tournament, given it’s propensity to be won by one of the favourites and with a strong field this week that looks likely to be the case again.
Richard Gasquet has an outstanding record here of 24-5 win/loss, with a hold/break total of 114.2, but he hasn’t played since last October due to a knee injury and it’s asking a lot for him to turn up and win here first up after injury.
No bet for me here.
Cordoba Open
Much like the French have dominated Montpellier over the years, I’d expect a few Argentines to take this Cordoba title in the years to come, after its debut year on tour saw an all-Argentine final between Juan Ignacio Londero and Guido Pella.
Both are back for the 2020 renewal alongside fellow countrymen Diego Schwartzman, Leonardo Mayer, Federico Delbonis and several others, with perhaps more to come from the qualifying draw.
And 33-1 is a fair price on Federico Delbonis, who made the semis here a year ago and if he can get past another of last year’s semi finalists (Pablo Cuevas) in round one Delbonis on his best form has a fair shot at a price that looks generous.
He beat Cuevas the last time this pair met (in Bastad last summer on slow clay) and he’s made the semis in his last two main level events on home dirt – here last year and in Buenos Aires in 2018.
Delbonis looked in decent touch in unsuitable conditions in Australia, where he always fares poorly, and in a first clay event of the year he’ll at least be highly motivated to do well.
He’s played well at events with a similar altitude before, winning Sao Paulo and Marrakech, so he’s one for me in this bottom half of the draw.
Another one whose price I like is Attila Balazs at 100-1, also in the bottom half, with the streaky Hungarian having already won this season – and on hard courts, too – in hot conditions at the Bangkok Challenger.
Perhaps unwisely, he decided to play another Challenger in the same city the week after and ended up retiring, but while it’s obviously a heck of a change in conditions he’s a streaky sort and we saw what he’s capable of at main level when he made the Umag final on clay as a qualifier six months or so ago.
It’s obviously a long shot, but in the first clay tournament of the season for most much is possible, as Londero showed last year.
Corentin Moutet is another one with chances on current form and he defeated number two seed and tournament second favourite Guido Pella on clay at the French Open last year, so he certainly has the level.
The Frenchman has already surprised once this year, by making the final as a 100-1 chance on hard courts in Doha and back on his more familiar clay Moutet isn’t without a chance at 28-1.
These three look the best placed to cause an upset in the bottom half of the draw, while in the top half the 40-1 about Hugo Dellien could be an option, with the Bolivian showing some nice form in 2019 and he’s capable of winning a 250 on the dirt.
It’s a tough half of the draw though, with Diego Schwartzman, Leo Mayer, Jaume Munar, Pablo Andujar, Albert Ramos, Laslo Djere, Marco Cecchinato and defending champ Juan Ignacio Londero all possible winners, so I’ll pass in this half.
Conclusion
With one of the market leaders seemingly likely to take Montpellier’s title I’m happy to focus on Cordoba and Pune and take some big prices in those two events.
Ivashka looks the best price in Pune, while Delbonis, Moutet and Balazs all look generously priced, too and could surprise the favourites in the opening main level event of the year on clay.
Best Bets
1 point win Ivashka to win Pune at 26.0
0.5 points win Delbonis to win Cordoba at 34.0
0.5 points win Balazs to win Cordoba at 101.0
0.5 points win Moutet to win Cordoba at 29.0
