Jan-Lennard Struff provided us with the easiest of winners on Tuesday, with his +4.5 games handicap on Alexander Zverev meaning he eventually won the match by 12.5 games against the struggling Zverev.
For once the player quotes proved to be an accurate reflection of their condition, as Zverev looked to be well below par, allowing our man to ease into the next round without even producing one of his trademark chokes.
The weather forecast was also right in the sense that we did get some rain at the end of the day and it predicts a better day on Tuesday, with sun and clouds and highs of around 23C, getting windier from around 16:00 local time.
Denis Shapovalov played a very clean match against Steve Johnson in the last round, but that certainly wasn’t the case the last time (only time) that he took on Marin Cilic.
In Basel on indoor hard last October Cilic was an easy winner, thanks in part to 23 unforced errors from Shapovalov, but the young Canadian was clearly feeling it at the end of last season, losing five of his last six matches.
Cilic has an excellent record against lefties, winning 24 of his last 28 against left-handers if we take Rafael Nadal out of the equation, while I’m not convinced that we’ll see back-to-back excellent performances from Shapovalov, so I’ll pass on this one.
I said in my preview the other day that the conditions here have rarely suited Kei Nishikori, with the Japanese star not a fan of the wind, and that’s exactly what he complained about after losing a strange one to Tuesday’s opponent Hubert Hurkacz in Dubai.
That was Kei’s second match of the week in Dubai, so he should have been at least slightly attuned to the conditions and while I expect Nishikori the right the wrongs of that Dubai match here I wouldn’t risk backing him to do so at 1.38 in these conditions.
I didn’t think I’d be writing about Radu Albot in terms of the Moldovan having produced a 106.4 hold/break total so far in 2019, but that’s what Albot has done and I couldn’t count him out against Kyle Edmund on current form.
Indeed, both men are in fine form just now, and Edmund’s six matches at Indian Wells have seen the Brit hold serve 91.6% of the time and break serve 40.3% of the time, but five of those were at Challenger level, of course.
The 3-0 head-to-head in Edmund’s favour looks good for him, but this is a different Albot and if the Moldovan has enough left in the tank after a busy spell his court coverage can make life tough for Edmund if he’s not quite on his best game.
John Isner vs Guido Pella
The one I like from a betting perspective though is to side with Pella in some way against Isner in this 22:00 (approx.) UK time (15:00 local) clash between the big-serving American and the Argentine lefty.
Isner should be pleased that he’s got a day match, but it will probably be pretty windy when they play, and Isner in these slow conditions may well have to go long to get the better of the determined Pella.
Since teaming up with Jose Acasuso Pella has had a bit more belief and that showed in his title win in Sao Paulo and he had to overcome a weak middle set and a dogged opponent in Alex Bolt in his opening match here.
And against the big servers on my list he’s acquitted himself pretty well, beating Isner on the clay of Rio in their only career clash, and beating Marin Cilic on grass at Wimbledon last year.
He’s also beaten Sam Querrey on quicker clay in Geneva and Houston and he lost in a final set tie break to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on indoor hard in Antwerp at the end of last season (also lost in a final set breaker to Karlovic in Antwerp the previous year).
He plays a lot of tie breaks against the ‘big servers’, with 0.43 per set in the 14 matches he’s played (11 of the 14 featured at least one breaker) versus my big servers and the slow conditions here will help him.
And Isner against lefties on hard courts has gone to at least 23 total games the last nine times in a row and in 20 of his last 22 matches against left-handers (11 of his last 14 have featured at least one breaker, too).
Isner’s opening match this week was a facile win over an injured Alexei Popyrin and this should be a much greater test, with the over 23.5 games at 1.87 appealing, as does the over 31.5 games (six of his last eight on hard courts against lefties have gone to at least 28 games).
Elsewhere, Andrey Rublev has a fair shot against Karen Khachanov, with the pair knowing each other’s games very well and having played three very close matches against each other in the past.
I’m not convinced at all about Daniil Medvedev’s suitability to these conditions and if Filip Krajinovic ever had a shot of beating the Russian on a hard court surely it’s here at Indian Wells.
Such flat hitters as Medvedev rarely go well here and he’s facing an opponent today in Krajinovic who’s yet to drop a set in four matches this tournament and has broken serve 56% of the time.
Of course, he hasn’t faced a server of the ilk of Medvedev yet, but I’m happy to risk half a point on the Serb to see if my theory on Medvedev in these conditions is correct.
Best Bets
1 point win over 23.5 games in Isner/Pella at 1.87
0.5 points win Krajinovic to beat Medvedev at 3.25
