Debrief

 

We went for the jackpot in the bottom half of the Estoril draw last week and I was right to conclude that Filip Krajinovic and Fabio Fognini would be likely no-shows, but I was foiled by one of the lucky losers, Pablo Cuevas.

The wily Uruguayan took down both of my 100-1 shots en route to the final, but not before we got a great run from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who made the semis at that huge price and was a 1.33 chance to make the final at one stage.

Our big hitters in Munich were off-colour, with Jan-Lennard Struff having a shocker in his first match and Martin Klizan also not at the races in conditions where both men should have done much better.

The other element of annoyance in Munich was that our 250-1 pick from the week before, Cristian Garin, who was rather shafted by the rain delays in Barcelona, came out on top of the conditions a week later in Munich, albeit at a much shorter price of around 20-1 and at the time of writing he's sitting pretty in the final, while the other semi final is yet to complete.

 

Conditions and trends

 

Were back at the Caja Magica this week for the Madrid Masters and they play on outdoor clay at 667m of altitude, which makes the balls fly a bit and aids the big servers, but the CPI is still only 21.6 (or it was in 2018).

As with pretty much all the M1000 events qualifiers have a tough time here, with none making it as far as the semi finals in Madrid in the 10 years that it’s been played on clay.

Number one seeds have had a mixed time here lately, failing to make it past the quarter finals five times in the last eight season, but the winner has come from the top-five seeds each year since the event switched to clay back in 2009.

Alexander Zverev last year became the only player to have won the title on clay without a major title to his name (so far) and the only man in all the years of the Madrid Masters, on clay and hard, to have won it without having at least one appearance in a major final to his name.
 

Quarter one

It’s hard to know what to expect from Novak Djokovic at the moment, after three poor showings by his standards since winning the Australian Open at a canter at the start of the year.

It would appear on the face of it that he’s struggling for motivation in non-major events at the moment and he’s only made the final of Madrid on clay twice in seven appearances at the Caja Magica.

The Serb’s draw looks like it could hold an early test or two, as well, with Grigor Dimitrov (unless Dimitrov is beaten by a qualifier) not likely to be an easy opening match for Djokovic on the level that the Serb has shown since Melbourne.

Also in Q1 and in with a shot if they’re fit are Juan Martin Del Potro and Nick Kyrgios, but Delpo has played only one tournament since last October, while Kyrgios is a possibility if he fancies it, with a 7-3 win/loss record in Madrid (beaten Federer and Wawrinka here).

The unpredictable Aussie has been sidelined by another knee problem lately and it’s hard to see him putting it all together having not played on clay since Houston over a year ago.

The winner of Diego Schwartzman and Marco Cecchinato could go far here, with the Italian preferred, due to the poor run of form that Schwartzman has been on for a while now.

Cecchinato beat Djokovic at the French Open last year, of course, and while he’s yet to play the Madrid Open in his career the altitude might help him get a little more purchase on his shots.

I can’t imagine he’s saving himself for Rome next week, with a 3-6 record there and if he beats Schwartzman the Italian looks a fair alternative to Djokovic in Q1.

I watched Marin Cilic lose to Pablo Cuevas in Budapest the other week and he looks like he badly needs matches, while his record in Madrid is weak, too, so perhaps one of Dusan Lajovic, Jan-Lennard Struff or Laslo Djere might go well at a big price.

Lajovic is the obvious choice after making the Monte-Carlo final as a 300-1 chance and he played well in Madrid last year, beating Del Potro in reaching the last eight.

 

Quarter two

Roger Federer plays a tournament on clay for the first time since 2016 and it’s hard to know what to expect from the Swiss veteran, but he does have an 18-4 record on clay in Madrid, so if he is going to do anything on the dirt this year it’ll probably be here.

Dominic Thiem beat Federer in Fed’s most recent match on clay in Rome in 2016 and the Austrian, having made the last two finals in Madrid and in fine form at the moment, looks the likely winner of this quarter.

In all matches at the Caja Magica, Thiem is 12-3 win/loss, and after taking it to Nadal in Rafa’s backyard – indeed on the court named after him – in Barcelona and winning in straight sets two weeks ago Thiem has very strong claims here.

Thiem’s immediate section of the draw looks fine, with the half-fit Pablo Carreno Busta, possibly not fit at all Fabio Fognini, the also not fit John Millman, struggling Kyle Edmund and Steve Johnson the opposition.

Gael Monfils is the interesting one in Fed’s part of Q2, but Lamonf looks like he needs matches at the moment after yet another injury break and Thiem should be winning this quarter.
 

Quarter three

In this quarter I think it’s perhaps worth taking a punt on Borna Coric, who has a good record here and similarly to when we backed him in Shanghai last season the quicker conditions in Madrid will help the Croat.

The last two years here Coric has lost out to Thiem (in 2018 he served for a straight sets win) but this time he can’t meet the Austrian until the final and Q3 has possibilities for a few players, as it seems rather open.

Stefanos Tsitsipas didn’t impress in Estoril, despite making the final (still to play the title match there at the time of writing) and will need a fair bit better in Madrid to figure.

The Greek is too short for me at around 20-1 and perhaps Karen Khachanov can finally find some form in 2019 – if he does then his price of 100-1 is preferable to Tsitsipas, but it’s tough to see the Russian winning without a huge improvement.

Fernando Verdasco may go well in what could be his last time in his home tournament, as could David Ferrer for the same reason, but Alexander Zverev still looks miles away from his best level and can be taken on in this quarter of the draw.

Roberto Bautista Agut is another with chances in these conditions, but his recent record here is rather weak and he hasn’t been done any favours by the rain in Munich and at the time of writing he hasn’t even played his semi final there yet.
 

Quarter four

Rafael Nadal’s quarter looks like it could be a tricky one for the Spaniard, who, for once, comes to Madrid not having even made the final in either Monte-Carlo or Barcelona.

The last time that happened was in 2015 and the end result in Madrid was a heavy defeat in the final to Andy Murray and I’m not seeing any reason to side with Nadal over Thiem in a potential best-of-three set clay clash in lively conditions at the moment.

Among those that could possibly cause Nadal problems in this quarter include Kei Nishikori, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka, and Nikoloz Basilashvili – all of whom have the game on their best form to bother Nadal at his current level.

The likes of Denis Shapovalov, Guido Pella and Felix Auger-Aliassime can’t be excluded from this section either and it looks one to watch, rather than bet on, but in these faster conditions perhaps Medvedev will be the one to test Rafa the most.

The flat hitting of the Russian doesn’t seem best suited to clay, but he’s proven many people wrong so far this clay swing, although the way he tends to down tools when he’s losing sometimes is a cause for concern.

On his day in these conditions his style of play could cause the 2019 version of Nadal serious problems, but I prefer wagers in the other quarters to this one.

 

Conclusion

 

The price of 8.0 about Thiem looks about the only real wager of interest for me in Madrid, where the market leaders tend to have it between them every year, but with one small punt on Coric in Q3 as well.

 

Best Bets

 

2 points win Thiem to win Madrid at 8.0
0.5 points win Coric at 41.0