Jan-Lennard Struff did pretty much what I expected of him on Wednesday in Cincy when he took down Stefanos Tsitsipas, but we got a little lucky that he produced one of his trademark wobbles to land the over 2.5 sets bet.
It looked like it would be another of those ‘right idea, wrong bet’ situations, but we got away with it, however Guido Pella was poor against a David Goffin that produced one of his better serving days.
I didn’t see the official stats, but Pella must have produced way more unforced errors than he usually does and he blew a 5-2 lead in set two, losing the last five games in a row.
Still, four of the seven players on my underdog shortlist won and Alex De Minaur is in a fair position at the moment in that bottom half of the draw that I said at the start was the place for outright value.
Alexander Zverev’s latest horror show predictably opened up that section further yesterday and let’s see if our outright luck will change in the next few days.
It’s round three day on Thursday and in this round over the last three years 52% of the matches here have featured at least one tie break (40% in the last six years), while 28% of the underdogs have won in the last six years.
The weather doesn’t look like it’ll cause many problems on Thursday, with 28C heat at 55% humidity and not a great deal of wind (15kph at worst), according to the forecast.
We start at 16:00 UK time (11:00 local) with two match-ups for the purists: Diego Schwartzman taking on Richard Gasquet and Yoshihito Nishioka and Alex De Minaur clashing.
There’ll be no crash, bang, wallop stuff here, just clever tactical play, nice shot-making and nimble movement as they try and outmanoeuvre each other. It’s a good day to have tickets if you’re a tennis fan.
You’ve got to love the French players and their propensity to say whatever is on their minds in interviews and Gasquet said this after this scratchy win over lucky loser Federico Delbonis:
“When I was in the top-10 in the world, I certainly played tennis better,” Gasquet said, but the stats for the last year for him on outdoor hard aren’t exactly bad: 7-3 win/loss and 105 hold/break total.
He’s beaten Schwartzman twice (Schwartzman had a shocker the last time they met) and if he’s fit the variety that Gasquet has can definitely cause problems for the Argentine, who looks a tad skinny at 1.57 if – and it’s a big ‘if’ – Gasquet is fit.
Nishioka got a little lucky to find his hero Kei Nishikori in yet another state of not being fit for duty yesterday, with this time some sort of breathing problem being the issue for Nishikori.
I said beforehand that it might be a tough one for Nishioka to deal with mentally and he admitted as much afterwards: “ I was so excited to play with him because he's the hero of Japanese tennis. I couldn’t sleep yesterday.”
There may well be a come down from all of that on Thursday, but if there isn’t I’m expecting a very tough match here for De Minaur and if I wasn’t on ADM outright I might well be tempted with Nishioka here.
The Japanese beat the Aussie pretty easily on his comeback from injury in Miami last year and De Minaur is only 5-5 against lefties so far in his main level career and in a battle of movement and ball striking I don’t think there’s a lot in this.
Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff
I’m going to stick with Struff for my bet today, with the German in excellent form and the way he’s playing right now he’s got a fair chance against what must be a fatigued Medvedev.
Struff should have disposed of Tsitsipas in straight sets, but put in a trademark choke serving for the match, and it’s a sign of how far he’s come this past year that he didn’t let that ruin the match for him as it so often did in the past.
He faced only one break point all match against the Greek, winning 85% on his first ball and 62% on his second and the last time he faced Medvedev it was very close, with Struff winning two more points in the match, but losing a final set tie break.
Indeed, in that clash with Medvedev indoors in quick conditions in Marseille, Struff won the same percentage of serve points as he did against Tsitsipas: 85% first ball and 62% second.
Medvedev has been the one to catch the eye lately with his flat hitting, few errors and steely defensive skills being too much for the most and that may be the case today, but the Russian has got to be feeling it after another hot and humid day on Wednesday on top of a heavy schedule.
If he’s a step slow in his defence Struff has the game and the form to make this very hard for Medvedev and we’ll see how much Medvedev fancies a battle so close to the US Open with all that tennis in his legs.
Struff’s serve numbers are slightly better than Medvedev’s versus the current top-25 at main level this past year, with Struff holding 82% of the time against them and Medvedev 80% of the time.
Struff has won more first serve points (77% to 73%) and 1.8% fewer second serve points but it’s on return where Medvedev scores better: breaking 6% more often.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Medvedev give up a set here if he goes behind in these circumstances, but 1.70 on Struff +3.5 games still feels a bit short.
Medvedev wasn't up to much against Benoit Paire and could easily have gone a set down before Paire melted away in the heat and Medvedev said: " I am tired, after two finals in a row, so it’s not easy."
The same as Tsitsipas, Medvedev created just one break chance against Struff in three sets when they last met and with Struff serving so well I like either the tie break played at evens or the over 12.5 games in set one at 3.75 or just the straight win at 2.88.
I said at the start of the tournament that Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer might well have tough draws, but it hasn’t turned out that way so far, with the main threats to Djokovic disappearing when John Isner and Nick Kyrgios lost.
It’s hard to see Pablo Carreno Busta doing anything against Djokovic, while surely Federer will be too clever for Andrey Rublev today.
You never really know with Lucas Pouille, as he showed in Melbourne at the start of the year, but I haven’t seen much from him this week to make me want to back him as a 2.45 shot against Karen Khachanov.
Khachanov stayed focused during the Nick Kyrgios show last night and overcame the irritable Aussie, whose head had gone again and it looks like more work with the sports psychologist (or any psychologist) is needed for Kyrgios.
If Pouille has taken confidence from his two wins so far this could be dangerous for Khachanov and I wouldn’t have the Russian down as a cert here by any means, but Pouille’s too hit and miss for my liking.
I’d imagine that Roberto Bautista Agut will be too solid for Miomir Kecmanovic, but I’m a bit tempted to take David Goffin on again, with 1.46 a little short against Adrian Mannarino.
Manna beat Goffin on grass en route to winning Rosmalen for us a few months ago (back in the days when I didn’t lose every final) but Goffin had one of his bad serving days that day (44% first serves in and 10 doubles).
When he serves well, as he did against a poor Guido Pella on Wednesday he generally plays well, but at one stage early on in set two against Pella the Belgian had won only two points on his second serve.
Mannarino played well enough against weak opposition from his bunny Mikhail Kukushkin on Wednesday, but both Manna and Goffin are too inconsistent for me to have a bet here, although 2-1 to the up and down Goffin is a decent option I feel at 3.95.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Struff to beat Medvedev at 2.88
