We got the expected wild ride from Fernando Verdasco on Wednesday, with Nando finally coming up trumps late on in the decider to provide a welcome odds-against winner.
Sadly, Adrian Mannarino wasn’t quite up to it against what was arguably a better performance from Stefanos Tsitsipas than we saw all week from him in Estoril, but that price of 1.15 in those circumstances had to be taken on in some way and Manna was a couple of points away from a tie break in set two.
The wind is set to die down a little on Thursday and then return from around 15:00 local time, with 30kph gusts expected, but with singles play on the outside courts finished it probably won’t be too much of an issue.
Only Jeremy Chardy could go from being utterly awful in windy conditions in Estoril to playing, in his own words, “the best match of my career on clay,” in similarly windy conditions in a matter of days.
“It does not happen every day, so you have to enjoy it,” the Frenchman said after crushing a poor Diego Schwartzman on Wednesday and now he faces Novak Djokovic, against whom Chardy has a 0-12 record (0-28 in sets).
Could today be the day that he finally takes a set against his Serbian nemesis? Probably not and after his best clay day he’ll most likely produce his worst.
I don’t think I’ll be adding Chardy to my list of possible underdog winners for Thursday, as he’s got a few more defeats yet until he’s into Vitus Gerulaitis territory and these ones looks more likely: Laslo Djere, Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini, Hubert Hurkacz.
Roger Federer vs Gael Monfils
It’s not the most appealing list of potential underdog winners today, but Monfils – as worrying as it is – seems to be the one that stands out in terms of a hint of possible value.
Despite adding another bizarre performance to his bulging CV of weird displays on Wednesday when he managed to get injured in the first game and had to come back from 1-6 down to beat Marton Fucsovics, Lamonf has a shot here.
In his last 10 matches against Federer the enigmatic Frenchman has only been beaten in straight sets twice – both times at the French Open – and Monfils has actually won two of their three most recent matches (all played on clay).
In those last 10 matches on all surfaces there isn’t a great deal in it in terms of numbers, with Federer holding serve 84% of the time and Monfils 80% of the time.
Indeed, Federer hasn’t beaten Monfils in straight sets in a best-of-three set match since 2008 and Monfils has been in pretty good form in-between his usual spate of injuries in 2019.
Monfils is 18-4 win/loss at main level so far this season, with a 116.9 hold/break total (Federer 118.9) and with those kind of stats and the way he’s played (ignoring set one’s histrionics against Fucsovics) in Madrid this week thus far he looks a threat.
There are two problems with backing Monfils though: firstly the injuries and secondly his sheer unpredictability.
He was sporting tape on his right arm and on his left ankle area (he’s had Achilles problems this season) against Fucsovics and that was before he hurt himself slipping over at the back of the court.
Federer had the easiest of outings in his first competitive match on clay for three years when he beat a fatigued Richard Gasquet and his lack of matches and weaker stats on this surface have to be a factor today.
Fed’s last 50 on clay have produced a hold/break total of 112.9 – still very good, but not fabulous – and he’s also on 112.9 on clay in Madrid.
The bet here looks to be to take either over games or to back Monfils to win a set.
Marin Cilic has been battling to find his form lately and I can’t fault him for effort, but his game still isn’t quite there, which gives Laslo Djere a fair chance against Cilic on Thursday, but the price isn’t exactly appealing.
Cilic is doing just about enough in his matches so far this week and all four of his matches this clay swing have gone to a deciding set, which looks quite likely again versus the in-form Djere.
Alexander Zverev didn’t have much to beat on Wednesday in a physically impaired David Ferrer and he almost made a mess of that early on.
Fortunately for Zverev, Ferrer in his final career match, couldn’t maintain his level – not surprising after he was stretched out on the court having a MTO and pills in his previous match – and Hubert Hurkacz in his current form stands a decent chance.
The German has only won 47% of his second serve points all season on all surfaces, which shows his frailty from the back of the court and if he slips into pushing mode he’ll probably be in trouble here.
I’m not sold on Hurkacz from a defensive point of view on clay and if Zverev stays aggressive he should win, but nothing’s certain with Zverev at the moment.
The other underdog that has a lively chance is Fabio Fognini, who takes on our outright hope Dominic Thiem, and if the Italian is fit, which is far from guaranteed at the moment, he has his chances on his day.
Fognini took down Thiem as a 3.19 shot in Rome a year ago and if he beats Thiem and while it’s quite likely that Fabio is saving what’s left of his fitness for Rome (he’s just 4-10 in Madrid) he could still be a danger here.
A danger not least because if he wins and Cilic loses he’d enter the top-10 for the first time in his career and become the first Italian man since his Davis Cup captain, Corrado Barazzutti, did it in 1978, so there’s a lot of motivation (possibly) for Fabio here.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Monfils +1.5 sets to beat Federer at 1.96
