The ATP Tour moves on to Adelaide and Auckland in week two after we saw a 100-1 qualifier in Corentin Moutet makes the final in Doha in week one of the 2020 season.
Moutet was 1-8 win/loss at main level on hard courts prior to that unexpected Doha run and while we’ve seen flashes of his ability in recent times it was highly unlikely that he’d beat Sandgren, Raonic, Verdasco and Wawrinka (and Popyrin in qualies) to make the final.
Quite the run there from Moutet and let’s see if there’s another big-priced finalist to be had in week two.
Conditions and trends
I was a tad confused about the switch of surfaces by the ASB Classic from Plexicushion to Green Set, as I understood that the new Green Set deal was only with Tennis Australia, but the tournament have confirmed to me that they are playing on a Green Set as well.
What happened last week again at the Auckland WTA tournament was frequent strong winds and I’d be a bit concerned about players with a high ball toss here and those known not to enjoy windy conditions in general.
Players like David Ferrer and Roberto Bautista Agut have prospered here, able to control the ball in the wind, and even Jack Sock, who plays with a lot of top spin (and Philipp Kohlschreiber similarly) has gone well.
The new tournament in Adelaide, the Adelaide International, will also be played on the new Green Set outdoor hard surface and a few of the players did state during the ATP Cup that is was slow in both Perth and Sydney, so it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out this week.
After surviving 36 aces and three match points to beat Reilly Opelka, Pablo Cuevas said: “Of course I play better on clay; every year the start of the season is tough for me. But this year I think the court is a little bit slow; it’s better for me.”
The redeveloped Memorial Drive Tennis Centre venue has a new woven fibreglass membrane fabric roof covering the existing stands and centre courts, so the glare of the sun and direct heat from the sun shouldn’t be an issue on Centre Court at least.
While Adelaide is a new tournament, it’s worth mentioning the success of qualifiers in the tournament that it’s effectively replaced in the calendar – Sydney – where qualifiers took the title in three of its last eight years (and two made the final in 2015).
Qualifiers tend not to fare so well in Auckland, with none past round two since Jiri Vesely won it in 2015 as a qualifier, and Vesely was the first qualifier to make the Auckland final since 1985.
In both tournaments some players are coming off ATP Cup duty or coming from Doha or Bendigo and in Auckland only Michael Venus and Joao Sousa of the main draw players haven’t played so far this season and in Adelaide those making their seasonal debuts are: Albert Ramos, Reilly Opelka, Juan Ignacio Londero, Sam Querrey and James Duckworth.
Adelaide International
The poor recent form of our number two seed, Felix Auger-Aliassime, leads me to the bottom half of the Adelaide draw as a possible place to find some outright value at the Memorial Drive Tennis Centre.
FAA’s three defeats from four matches in the ATP Cup (the one win came against 486-ranked Michail Pervolarakis) were all weak straight sets affairs and the young Canadian has now lost 11 of his last 15 matches.
He’s playing with a new racquet and looks bereft of confidence at the moment, all too easily beaten by the likes of Lajovic, Millman and Struff in the ATP Cup and the candidates to possibly take advantage in this bottom half of the Adelaide draw include Alexander Bublik, Dan Evans, Andrey Rublev, and perhaps Sam Querrey, Fernando Verdasco, Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Struff.
I’m overlooking Verdasco after his failure to take advantage of favourable ‘home’ conditions in Doha and the veteran hasn’t won a single match in a 250 in Australia since 2009.
Querrey also has a weak record in this part of the world, with a 15-24 win/loss mark in Australia and he’s yet to make a quarter final in this country.
Rublev is an obvious contender and the one with the best claims after a strong end to 2019 and a very good showing in Doha, where he took the title, but maybe he’ll take it easier this week ahead of a slam.
Struff has proven impossible to win with after losing all seven of his main level semi finals so far and one of those was this time last year against Cam Norrie in Auckland.
The German is a possibility, but I prefer Evans, whose record in Australia is a very healthy 11-5 win/loss at main level, including the final in this corresponding week in Sydney back in 2017, and his form so far in 2020 has been excellent.
Indeed, Evans will be seeded at the Australian Open, after beating the likes of De Minaur and Goffin in the ATP Cup and if he can keep that going he has a chance here.
Stats-wise, Evans has compiled a 7-3 win/loss record and a 112.7 hold/break total in his last 10 matches on outdoor hard courts and I’m happy to give him a shot here at around 10-1.
Bublik is impossible to predict at the best of times and he’s certainly capable of winning this if he’s on a go week and I was tempted to add the Kazakh as a saver bet, but he’s too short now that he’s beaten Taylor Fritz in round one.
Herbert can’t be discounted if it does play quick in Adelaide, but he’s yet to make a main level quarter final in this country (4-6 win/loss) and after a struggle with injuries in 2019 I’ll pass this time on the Frenchman.
In the top half of the draw Alex De Minaur is the main man for me and unless he’s a bit tired after some tough ATP Cup matches the Aussie looks likely to go very close here.
ADM doesn’t usually struggle against the ‘baseline grinder’ style of opponent, of which there are plenty in this top half of the draw.
He’s won 13 of his last 16 matches against the ‘baseline grinders’ in my database, with two of the three losses coming on clay, but if it is playing on the slow side, which early results suggest could be the case, I may take a punt here.
De Minaur’s heavy workload in the ATP Cup may catch up with him if it’s slow in Adelaide and with Reilly Opelka having been beaten already by Pablo Cuevas and Alexei Popyrin out to Lalso Djere this half may be won by one of the other ‘grinders’ in the half.
Cristian Garin had a shoulder problem in ATP Cup, while surely Djere won’t be winning on a hard court, so Pablo Carreno Busta, Gilles Simon and Aljaz Bedene come into the thinking for me.
PCB is a bit short at around 11-1, but Bedene looked decent last week and was beaten by a strong performance from Stan Wawrinka in the Doha quarter finals, however there’s no one like Stan in this half of the Adelaide draw.
Again, I’d probably want a bigger price about Bedene though and perhaps there’s some value on veteran Simon, who made the Sydney semis last year (lost to De Minaur) and the Frenchman won Pune in the opening week of the 2018 season.
He played pretty well by the end of his substitute appearance in the ATP Cup in beating Lloyd Harris and in this half of the draw I prefer him to Chardy (who he may lose to in round one), with Chardy having only one title to his name in 13 years on the main tour.
At around 33-1, Simon is worth a small interest in the event that De Minaur is fatigued and saving himself for Melbourne.
ASB Classic
This looks wide-open, as most tournaments with Fabio Fognini as top seed tend to do, and in the top half I like the chances of Hubert Hurkacz to be the man to make the final at the expense of Fognini.
Hurkacz has winning form at this time of the year (in Canberra last season) and he also won ahead of a major in Winston-Salem last season, so he’s got form in that regard, too.
The Pole played well in the ATP Cup, beating some very good players in Dominic Thiem, Diego Schwartzman and Borna Coric, so he shouldn’t fear anyone in this top half of the Auckland draw.
Fognini has made one semi final in his career in tournaments held in Australasia and in all main level events where he’s been top seed (12 of them) he’s won the title just once – in Vina De Mar on the clay in 2014.
Against Lorenzo Sonego, Fognini, the out of form Frances Tiafoe, Feli Lopez, Pablo Andujar and a qualifier, Hurkacz should be making the semis, where he’d face either Karen Khachanov, John Millman, Benoit Paire, Jannik Sinner, Cam Norrie or a qualifier.
We backed Norrie at a big price here last year and he was one of many that lost in a final for us, but he doesn’t look in the same form this time around, although maybe a return to Auckland will do him good.
Sinner’s superb progress lately makes him very much a contender here, but how will his aggressive style play out in the wind of Auckland? He’s probably a bit too short for me at the moment.
Paire could be anything, but will probably be bothered by the wind (it doesn’t take much to put him off), while Khachanov is too inconsistent to back as short as he is.
The bottom half of the draw looks a fine opportunity for Denis Shapovalov to continue his excellent recent form, with a rather weak-looking section for the Canadian to overcome.
Radu Albot has lost 11 of his last 15 matches, while Joao Sousa has been injured (left foot stress fracture) and can’t have had much, if any, time to practice after recovering from that issue.
Marco Cecchinato’s weaknesses on hard courts are fairly clear, while John Isner has started his seasons very slowly lately, with losses in his last eight matches in a row played between January 1 and January 20.
He looked miles away from his best in the ATP Cup and it might come down to Kyle Edmund or defending champion Tennys Sandgren taking advantage if Shapovalov’s high-risk game falters in the Auckland wind.
We know Sandgren can play here and in contrast to Isner the American has now won 9 of his last 11 matches played at main level between January 1 and January 22 inclusive.
I was tempted to take a punt on the hit and miss Sandgren at a time of year he goes well in, rather than the struggling Edmund, who, despite a bit of a resurgence in Davis Cup at the end of last year hasn’t been able to string any results together on tour for a long time now.
But 20-1 is a bit short on a player as unreliable as Sandgren, so I’ll pass.
The one that might be interesting is Shapo’s fellow Canadian Vasek Pospisil, who showed some good form in season-ending Davis Cup event and who says he’s pain-free now for the first time in a long while.
I’m happy to give the Canadian a go here at 33-1.
Adrian Mannarino is a former finalist here, despite his very flat hitting style, but success for him is rare this time of year, too, losing 10 of his last 14 main level matches played between January 1 and January 21.
Even so, the price of 40-1 about Mannarino looks a bit big and is worthy of consideration if the mercurial Frenchman is on form, which is anyone’s guess.
Andreas Seppi usually enjoys the conditions at this time of year and is a possibility, but he’s so hard to win with only three main level titles (one via a retirement) and none on outdoor hard in over 15 years at this level.
The winner of Ugo Humbert and Casper Ruud may go well though, with Ruud having beaten Fognini and Isner (and not too far away against Medvedev) in the ATP Cup, while we know how talented Humbert is, but he did have the trainer out a few days ago in Bendigo.
Auckland’s tricky conditions aren’t usually a good place for younger players, with experience preferred for me if possible.
Conclusion
Early signs in Adelaide are (with Cuevas beating Opelka and Djere defeating Popyrin) that despite serves flying through the air fast it perhaps isn’t the quickest surface at the Adelaide International, so with Alex De Minaur perhaps tired after ATP Cup duty I’ll take the big price about Gilles Simon in the top half and Dan Evans in the bottom half.
In Auckland I’ll go with Hubert Hurkacz in the top half and a punt on Vasek Pospisil in the bottom half at a big price.
Best Bets
1 point win Evans to win Adelaide at 12.0
1 point win Hurkacz to win Auckland at 9.0
0.5 points win Simon to win Adelaide at 34.0
0.5 points win Pospisil to win Auckland at 34.0
