It’s been a struggle so far in this post-slam week in Pune, with some (not forecast) windy conditions making life tough for servers on Tuesday at the Tata Open.
Lukas Rosol served appallingly, while the Indian players, perhaps overly tense due to the possibilities of progress in a weak field, have struggled with nerves and that was the case again with Arjun Kadhe on Tuesday.
Kadhe was decent in the second set, winning 70% of his second serve points, but began each set poorly, while Paulo Lorenzi was unable to make it to a tie break against Egor Gerasimov, but the value was there in these conditions my view.
There was better news on the outright front though, along with the usual bad luck, as 100-1 chance Attila Balazs progressed in Cordoba and likewise Corentin Moutet, plus Ilya Ivashka in Pune, but after we got a great price on Federico Delbonis (33s into 16s) he fluffed his lines against Pablo Cuevas.
Again, the weather forecast isn’t predicting much wind (14kph max.) for Wednesday in Pune, with the usual hot 31C temperature in the shade expected again on day three.
I’ve fancied a few in Pune this week, but unlike at the Australian Open, my ideas haven’t hit the mark so far in week five and nothing much appeals in Pune on Wednesday.
Again, Yuichi Sugita looks a tad short against Viktor Troicki in these lively conditions if we’re going on more long term numbers, where the Serb has a better combined hold/break total on this surface at main level.
With both Sugita and in particular Troicki, though, their best days look to be behind them and the Japanese player is favoured on current form, but it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Troicki’s serve proved the difference on the day.
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe looks the right favourite based on his display against Ivo Karlovic when he takes on Ricardas Berankis, but neither have great records on outdoor hard and Stebe doesn’t look any value at 1.84.
Our man Ilya Ivashka was decent against Donskoy on Tuesday, but the opposition was rather feeble on the day in truth, so we’ll see if Ivashka can overcome a likely sterner test in Stefano Travaglia on Wednesday.
Ivashka beat Travaglia on outdoor hard at the Rogers Cup last summer and I’m hopeful he’ll prevail again, but the Italian has been playing pretty well on hard lately and won’t be an easy opponent.
Moving on to Montpellier now and it’s not easy to fancy many of the underdogs on Wednesday, but one bet holds some appeal.
Ugo Humbert vs Feliciano Lopez
On what looks a very tricky day for bettors on the ATP Tour one wager that looks viable is to take an opening set tie break in the clash between two lefties, Lopez and Humbert.
Both men are strong on serve, but lack a fair bit on return and in lively indoor conditions in Montpellier a breaker or two seems likely, assuming that the veteran Spaniard is up for it, which isn’t always the case these days.
Humbert already has a title to his name in 2020 and is the rightful favourite on home soil, but his inability to break serve much has seen him play five opening sets of 12 games or more from six matches this main level campaign (six of his last seven at all levels).
Indeed, the only opening set of his that didn’t go to at least 12 games was against Marco Cecchinato on outdoor hard in Auckland and that’s not much of a surprise given the Italian’s strong preference for clay.
Humbert has played 0.31 tie breaks per set at main level in 2020 so far and in his last 10 matches at main level he’s broken serve just 15.7% of the time.
Lopez’s weakness on return is well-known and his last 10 matches at main level have seen him break serve only 11.8% of the time and in his last 10 indoors the Spaniard has held serve 87.4% of the time, but broken just 7.1% of the time.
Even against fellow lefties when winning seven of his last 10 main level indoor matches Lopez has broken just 15% of the time and played 0.30 tie breaks per set, while three of his last five opening sets indoors have ended in a tie break.
Nineteen of Lopez’s last 26 matches at main level on indoor hard have involved at least one breaker and 11 of his last 24 opening sets indoors have gone to a tie break, so 3.05 on that outcome again is fair enough against an opponent with similar stats.
Of Wednesday’s underdogs in Montpellier maybe it’s worth risking Richard Gasquet, who has a superb record against Gilles Simon and a fabulous record in Montpellier, but we’d be guessing on the 2.90 shot’s fitness.
The Gasman has had a knee injury for some time and hasn’t played since last October and of that he said: “It’s not going to be easy to come back, that’s for sure. I’ve had 2.5 months of knee pain, it started again; it came back, now it's over, but you have to start again from zero.”
And of the Simon clash (he leads the head-to-head 9-2, the last four of which have featured a tie break): “The first match is always something special. I do not expect much from this except to play a big match and have fun, then get out of there being fit.”
Grigor Dimitrov has lost four of his last five ATP 250 or 500 matches on indoor hard and hasn’t played a 250 indoors in France since the 2011 Open de Moselle when he lost as a 1.36 chance to Igor Sijsling.
Indeed, he’s only ever played three indoor 250s in France and he’s 0-3 win/loss, so a win on Wednesday against Gregoire Barrere would be something of a milestone for the Bulgarian.
I’d like to take Barrere in some way here, but I’m not convinced he’s quite up to the job and I’d want a slightly bigger price than he is today.
Adrian Mannarino is 6-11 win/loss in ATP 250s in France and has lost eight of his last 10 (the two he won were both against Vincent Millot), so he’s hard to see any value in at 10/11 the pair against Alexei Popyrin.
Finally, Denis Shapovalov should have too much game, just about, for Vasek Pospisil, whose indoor hard stats are hardly inspiring and who benefitted from two instances of Aljaz Bedene mental weakness in each set in round one here.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that all-Canadian affair is a tight one though and 2-1 to Shapo at 3.80 is an option worth thinking about.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 12.5 games in set one of Lopez/Humbert at 3.05
