Tuesday was quite a day on the ATP World Tour and if you’d taken my steers in Marseille you’d have had three winners from three at around evens; unfortunately everything else lost.
We lost all three outrights – two of them from a set ahead – and all three daily bets as well – one from three match points up on the worst day I can recall from a results point of view.
I’m not sure why Jo-Wilfried Tsonga took the wildcard in Marseille if he knew he wasn’t fit enough to play, while Taylor Fritz slumped to defeat in Delray Beach from a set up and Bernard Tomic failed to take his many chances against Andreas Seppi.
We move on to day three and the wager I like in Marseille is scheduled for (not before) 19:30 UK time on Court Central.
Peter Gojowczyk vs Gilles Simon
I said in my outright preview that Gojowczyk could be a dark horse in the top half of the draw in Marseille at a big price and he certainly has a good chance as underdog against veteran Frenchman Simon here.
The very flat hitting of the German is extremely effective on these quicker indoor hard courts, as he showed when he won Metz in 2017 on the same Gerflor surface that they use here in Marseille.
Indeed, Gojowczyk beat Simon in round two of that very same Metz event and he has every chance of repeating that result if he can stay serving at around the 59% mark that he produced against Damir Dzumhur in round one on Tuesday.
That was a big improvement on the 46%, 51%, 47%, and 50% of his last four matches and it was the first time since the Paris Masters last season that Gojowczyk has made over 55% of his first serves.
He made exactly 55% when he beat Simon in Metz (Simon had a poor day at 45%) but it looks a decent match-up for Gojowczyk on this surface, with Simon’s legs not quite up to the supreme levels of defending they were once capable of.
Simon didn’t impress in round one in a laboured win over Antoine Hoang and it’s the German that actually has the better service hold/break stats on this surface in his main level career, compared to Simon’s last 50 matches on indoor hard.
Gojowczyk is currently on 104.4 after 19 matches (11-8 win/loss), while Simon’s last 50 have yielded 27 wins and a hold/break total of 103.0.
So, a decent match-up, good stats and the right surface; let’s see how he gets on as a 2.48 underdog.
Elsewhere in Marseille, as predicted, it’s a no-show from Gael Monfils, and Gregoire Barrere takes his place against Jiri Vesely, who’s 4-13 win/loss on indoor hard in main level in his career.
Surely it’s too quick for the lumbering Czech here in Marseille, but Barrere hasn’t shown a lot yet at main level and 1.80 on him doesn’t really appeal.
Backing Mikhail Kukushkin either to win or on the handicap against Denis Shapovalov is another option, with not a lot separating this pair on their indoor hard court stats at main level over the last 12 months.
Neither man breaks a lot (15.6% Kukushkin and 16.5% Shapovalov) and it could well be that the quicker surface helps Kukushkin more, with his flat swipes getting a boost in these conditions.
He has lost seven of his last 10 main level matches against lefties though and just 35% in his career, so that puts me off.
Matthias Bachinger is another with decent form indoors in France on this surface, making the Metz final last year, and having qualified (as he did in Metz) he has his chances against the inconsistent Steve Darcis today.
Darcis made the final of the Cherbourg Challenger last week and given his fitness issues he might be a tad jaded and I wouldn’t be backing the Belgian at a touch of odds-on here.
Ernests Gulbis is one I considered and he may prove to be a hint of value as slight underdog against Ugo Humbert, who beat Darcis in that Cherbourg final on Sunday.
Humbert has shown a good deal of ability, but he’s yet to convert it to the main tour, where he’s 3-7 win/loss so far (also 3-7 in tie breaks) and I like the idea of either backing Gulbis to win the opener 7-6 at odds of 6.0 or over 10.5 games in set one at a price of 2.48.
Humbert has held serve 87.2% of the time at main level so far, while Gulbis has held 90% of the time in his 10 career matches in Marseille and 86.4% of the time in his last 12 months on indoor hard at main level.
I’d expect a tight one here and on this surface a tie break or two looks quite possible.
Rio Open
It’s been quite a couple of days in Rio, with all of the seeds barring Joao Sousa (Diego Schwartzman is in-play but struggling) already gone after heavy rain curtailed practice and those coming late from Buenos Aires to different balls and conditions were at a distinct disadvantage.
It’s anyone’s tournament now and the price that stands out for me is the 18-1 on Aljaz Bedene, who looks to have a real shot of making the final against the likes of Sousa (3-0 head-to-head in favour of Bedene), who’s as short as 8-1 to win it.
Bedene made several improvements in the off-season, including a new racquet and some sports psychology and I believe an eye operation and it could all pay off this week.
I didn’t put up an outright in Rio on Sunday, but this looks the clear pick of the prices now.
Best Bets
1 point win Gojowczyk to beat Simon at 2.48
0.5 points win over 10.5 games in set one of Gulbis/Humbert at 2.48
1 point win Bedene to win Rio at 19.0
