We took a bit of a beating in Pune on Monday thanks to a less than inspired showing from Thomas Fabbiano, who gave up after failing to get right back in the match in set one against Yuichi Sugita.
Fabbiano had four break points to get back to *4-5 after going 0-4 down, but once he’d failed with those it was curtains and the Italian was fed a bagel in set two.
I still think Sugita was too short at 1.36 for that one and we have to take such prices on as and when they crop up.
It was a similar story with Aljaz Bedene, who had the chance for a decisive break against Vasek Pospisil midway through set one, but put a rally ball long, the Canadian held and Bedene broke himself horribly the next game. That was all she wrote in that one on a day where all four favourites in Pune won.
Moving on to Tuesday’s play at the Tata Open in Pune and it’s expected to be another sunny day of around 31C in the shade when play starts and with little wind to bother the players.
That might help the flatter hitters like Peter Gojowczyk, who faces a durable, but rather limited at this level, opponent in James Duckworth.
The Aussie won the Challenger here in Pune only three months ago, so he’s familiar with the conditions in this part of the world, but at main level in his last 50 matches on outdoor hard he’s 16-34 win/loss, holding only 79.8% of the time and breaking just 13.8% of the time.
You just never know with Gojowczyk though: one set he’s unplayable and the next awful, as his high-risk game leaves little room for error.
Instead, there are two bets at odds-against that I like the look of today in Pune and the first of these is on the opening match of the day at 10:00 UK time on Court 1 between Paulo Lorenzi and Egor Gerasimov.
Both of these guys play a lot of tie breaks and in quick conditions like these I’m happy with a price of 2.55 about a breaker in this match.
Gerasimov has played 0.33 tie breaks per set in his 13 main level matches on this surface and broken serve only 8.5% of the time, while on all surfaces he’s played 0.30 tie breaks per set and broken 13.3% of the time.
This is a guy whose serve allows him to hold often (83% of the time), but struggles to break and in Lorenzi we have an opponent whose love of a good scrap sees him play plenty of breakers, too.
The Italian has played 0.27 per set on all surfaces in his last 50 matches at this level and for an even bigger priced bet the 7-6 to Gerasimov in set one at around 13/2 is interesting.
That’s due to their respective tie break records, of which Lorenzi is 15-23 in his last 50 matches and Gerasimov an impressive 12-6 (9-3 on outdoor hard only).
Lorenzi is getting on a bit, but that hasn’t diminished his battling qualities, as he showed at the US Open last summer, playing seven tie breaks in three main draw matches and beating Miomir Kecmanovic in almost five hours as a 6-1 shot.
The Italian has also played at least one tie break in nine of his 15 matches against the big servers in my database (he's lost 14 of those 15 matches).
There haven’t been many tie breaks in Pune so far, which is surprising, given the conditions and that there were lots the previous two years here, and surely we’re due some from Tuesday onwards.
Only four of 16 (25%) of the matches played so far (main draw and qualies) have featured a tie break, compared to 56% in the last two Pune main draws.
One match that may well have a tie break in it – perhaps unexpectedly, according to the layers – is the match between Arjun Kadhe and Jiri Vesely, which is second on Centre Court at around 12:00 UK time.
Trying to second-guess Vesely’s form at any time is fraught with danger, but in these conditions his serve will be a weapon, while his movement will probably be exposed, too.
I’m guessing he didn’t fancy the Australian Open, where he has a 1-7 win/loss record, and usually it’s too quick and hot for him and it’s also where he suffered his worst defeat as far as betting odds are concerned.
Losing as a 1.15 chance to Renzo Olivo in Melbourne in 2016 (after leading 2-1) is his worst loss in terms of odds and he’s not in the best of form (again) coming into this one.
Vesely hasn’t won any of his last 10 matches at any level in straight sets and he played the Bangkok Challenger on outdoor hard last week, losing to Federico Gaio, who’s played 63% of his career matches on clay (and went on to win that Bangkok title).
On paper he should beat Kadhe, but the Indian player will be highly motivated and played above his ranking here last year, losing out to Laslo Djere in two tight sets.
He doesn’t get many (none) chances like this the rest of the year and with Vesely struggling (he’s broken serve only 14.6% of the time in his last 10 matches, all of which have been Challengers or qualies for Doha) this may well be closer than the odds suggest.
Over 20.5 games at 2.23 looks good, while 4.50 about over 10.5 games in set one isn’t at all bad either.
Lukas Rosol and Roberto Marcora both went unbroken through qualies here in Pune and I’m tempted by the over 10.5 games in set one or over 12.5 games at 3.15 or 4.50 respectively in that one.
Best Bets
0.5 points win tie break played in Gerasimov/Lorenzi at 2.55
0.5 points win over 20.5 games in Vesely/Kadhe at 2.23
