It was one of those slightly frustrating days for our bets in Shanghai on Tuesday, with the right ideas, but not a lot of reward.
We did get a 1.92 winner with Vasek Pospisil over Joao Sousa, with the Canadian winning that one in straight sets, but the tie break in Roger Federer’s match with Albert Ramos came in set two rather than set one. Tie break in match backers at 2.75 would have profited, but it was an annoying loss for my wager.
And I said there would probably be tie breaks in the Alexander Bublik/Felix Auger-Aliassime clash and there was – in the only set that was completed – after which Bublik retired, having failed with 12 of 14 break chances in the match.
There was a bit of rain about on Tuesday, but the weather looks okay for Wednesday, with 24C heat in the shade, 50% humidity and an average wind speed, so conditions are expected to be fine.
The underdogs that could represent some betting value on day four include Taylor Fritz, Mikhail Kukushkin, and maybe Denis Shapovalov.
Taylor Fritz vs Karen Khachanov
Fritz had looked to be struggling a little bit in recent times after a very good season indeed and perhaps there was some fatigue issues as the root cause of that, but I expect a performance from him here.
He battled away well in his opening round against Fernando Verdasco in a match-up that doesn’t really suit him, with the strong lefty forehand of the Spaniard stretching Fritz’s backhand side.
The American managed to deal with it on the day in a tight three setter and his performances against higher ranked players this season make me mark him out as a possible wager today, alongside Khachanov’s poor betting return in 2019.
Fritz has beaten better ranked opponents nine times in all competitions this season and lost 13, which is pretty good and on outdoor hard alone he’s 3-4 win/loss in those matches.
We know he’s effective on fast surfaces, as he showed by winning Eastbourne on the grass and beating an opponent with a big serve and forehand in the final in Sam Querrey in straight sets.
He said after the Verdasco match: “I feel comfortable with my tennis. I've had some good results here and the courts suit me,” and as well as Querrey he’s beaten other big servers, such as Isner, Tsonga, Opelka and Cilic, so Khachanov shouldn’t worry him.
Khachanov showed a bit of form in Beijing, but he’s still only 15-15 win/loss when priced up as favourite this season and of those 30 matches he’s won only six in straight sets.
Statistically, there isn’t much between Fritz and Khachanov this season either on all surfaces, with Fritz winning a higher percentage of main level matches (53% to 51%), winning more points on first serve (77% to 73%), holding serve more often (85% to 82%) and winning a fraction more points on serve overall(66% to 65%).
Khachanov narrowly leads the hold/break totals by about 1% on all surfaces at main level this season, by virtue of breaking serve 4% more often, but it’s a very close call on the numbers and you wouldn’t make Khachanov 1.41 based on those.
Fritz has won five of his last eight main level matches when priced up between 2.50 and 3.50 and Fritz to win at 3.0 or the +2.5 games at 2.12 look the bets here.
David Goffin is another one that looks short at 1.25 in his match against Mikhail Kukushkin, who, as I said the other day, can be very effective with his flat hitting in these quick conditions.
As ever with Goffin, much depends on how well he serves on the day, but his win over Richard Gasquet in round one was against a poor and barely fit-looking Gasquet, and maybe that and his run last week in Tokyo has had too much bearing on today’s prices.
Kuku has won three of his last four matches and four of his last nine when priced up at 3.50 or bigger, including wins at majors over Roberto Bautista Agut, Jan-Lennard Struff and John Isner.
The Belgian and the Kazakh haven’t clashed since an epic Davis Cup affair back in 2014 when Kuku led 2-1 and was a break up in the fourth, but hit the wall physically and ended up being bagelled in a fifth.
On Kuku’s best form he can certainly compete with Goffin in these conditions and slight odds-against about Kuku +1.5 sets is a bet for me here.
I’m sure Novak Djokovic wouldn’t have picked Denis Shapovalov from this main draw field as his opening round opponent and although Shapo’s relatively weak return game will hamper him he may take a set if he finds his best form.
He did that when this pair clashed in Melbourne at the start of the year and the 2-1 win to the Serb at 4.10 is perhaps an option worthy of consideration in that one.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has won all three of his matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas without dropping a set, so he’s proven a big problem for the Greek so far in their career series.
I’m not sure that FAA is playing well enough at the moment to make that four, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Our two outrights in action on Wednesday are both favourites and one’s Matteo Berrettini, who started the tournament very well indeed against Jan-Lennard Struff and hopefully he’ll have too much power in these fast conditions for Cristian Garin to deal with.
Andrey Rublev also overcame a tricky-looking round one draw in Borna Coric and now takes on the in-form John Millman, which is a fairly similar sort of encounter to the Coric match-up.
Rublev will need to stay at his best level in this one, as Millman is in confident mood and will be far from easy to shake off unless Rublev is somewhere near his peak.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Fritz to beat Khachanov at 3.0
0.5 points win Kukushkin +1.5 sets to beat Goffin at 2.08
