Conditions and trends
We’re back in the desert at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in weeks 10 and 11 of the ATP World Tour and playing conditions here are slow on a Plexipave outdoor hard court with Penn balls.
Conditions vary here depending on the time of day, with the balls flying quickly through the thin air and bouncing high during the day session, but becoming much slower and heavier at night.
The CPI here has been 27.9 in 2018 and 27.4 in 2017, so it suits clay courters rather more here than any other M1000 hard court event, with the possible exception of Miami.
The title almost always goes to a major winner, with the only exceptions this century being (major finalist) Alex Corretja in 2000 and Ivan Ljubicic in 2010.
Draw and form – top half
This half of the draw might, just might, come down to a possible round three clash between five-time Indian Wells champion and tournament favourite Novak Djokovic and the back to form (for now) Nick Kyrgios.
The Aussie has beaten Djokovic in both of their prior career clashes (within a week or so of each other in 2017, here and in Acapulco, where Kyrgios won the title last week).
If, and it’s a pretty big ‘if’, Kyrgios fancies it again this week – and he might well do having seen the draw – there’s a chance of an upset, with Djokovic having not played since the end of January.
He’d have only one match (against a qualifier) to tune up for a possible clash with Kyrgios, but NK has got to win one as well, and it would be sadly typical of the Aussie if he were to turn up either injured or simply not bothered.
That is a concern in the top half, where with Djokovic’s record here (50-8 win/loss) it’s hard to see anyone else beating him in these slow conditions, but the ones that could benefit from a possible early exit for the Serb include Milos Raonic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and maybe Borna Coric or Dominic Thiem.
Raonic has reportedly just split with yet another coach (this time Goran Ivanisevic) and perhaps that’s a good thing for the Canadian, whose game looked to be at best stagnating under the tutelage of the Croatian.
Conditions here suit the Raonic game and either he or Tsitsipas would be my picks in quarter two ahead of Kevin Anderson, who’s returning from injury, and Alexander Zverev.
Zverev continues to be too in and out for my liking at the prices he gets put in at and I prefer the chances of Tsitsipas, who’s over his post-Melbourne slump and clearly revels in playing the big names in the bigger tournaments.
Coric struggled with his late finish to last season in Davis Cup affecting his performances in 2019, but despite some brutal match scheduling in Dubai he still made the semis and he should have made the final here in Indian Wells last season when he had the beating of Roger Federer.
Thiem should also find conditions to his liking here in Indian Wells and his price of 80-1 is a reflection of his struggles so far this season, but his draw looks kind and if he does rediscover his best form he could benefit from a possible early loss for Djokovic.
Of the rest in the top half, Gael Monfils is a man in form, but he’s 10-10 win/loss at Indian Wells and never past the quarter finals, but 80-1 is a fair enough price on Lamonf in his current mood.
If we’re considering the conditions to be perfect for the likes of Raonic and John Isner then they must also be very helpful for Reilly Opelka and 800-1 seems pretty big on the huge serving American.
It’s unlikely he’ll be up to going really deep at this level, but he could surprise a few this week, and if Djokovic falls early who knows?
Gilles Simon has rarely found conditions here to his liking (one quarter final, no further), while I can’t see the tricky conditions here suiting the high-risk game of Nikoloz Basilashvili either.
Grigor Dimitrov has never been past the last-32 at Indian Wells, but the lack of pace in the courts might make Alex De Minaur hard to beat, although I prefer the serve of Raonic in his section of the draw.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is finding his way in fine style in the senior ranks right now and could have a part to play in the Kevin Anderson/Tsitsipas section of the draw, with Anderson on his way back from injury.
Draw and form – bottom half
As well as Novak Djokovic, a certain Roger Federer is after his sixth Indian Wells title in the next 10 days or so and he must be happy about his quarter of the draw.
Only Kei Nishikori, who has a less than inspiring record at this tournament and Stan Wawrinka, look likely to maybe, possibly upset the Swiss veteran, who got better as the week went on in Dubai, where he collected his 100th career title.
One of the best ever players in the wind, Federer has been able to tame the slower than ideal conditions at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, winning 64 of his 76 matches here and even in the last two years at the veteran stage of his career he’s made the final each time.
Djokovic is the obvious stumbling block to another Indian Wells title, but if Kyrgios does his thing against the Serb he’ll find himself tournament favourite again rather quickly.
That’s unless his countryman Stan Wawrinka causes an early upset in a possible repeat of the 2017 Indian Wells final in this year’s event (assuming Wawrinka beats Dan Evans and then Marton Fucsovics).
Assuming Federer comes through against Gojowczyk or Seppi in his opening match, where he’s probably at his most vulnerable, it’s hard to see him not making the semi finals, where he may face Rafael Nadal again, unless Wawrinka intervenes.
Federer has beaten Nadal in two of their three Indian Wells clashes (the most recent one in 2017 perhaps the only relevant one now) and I’m far from certain that Nadal will make it to the semis this tournament.
The Spaniard hasn’t featured in an Indian Wells final since he won it in 2013 and if John Isner was a bigger price than the rather short 33-1 on offer I’d be tempted to side with the American in this quarter in what are pretty perfect conditions for him.
The issue with that bet at that price is that Isner tends to get night matches for a TV audience, which gives him very little chance, as it’s much slower and heavier at night, but around 100-1 is a price worth risking on Isner.
David Goffin at 80-1 is interesting in these conditions and he’s now back with former coach Thomas Johansson, with whom Goffin made the semis here at Indian Wells back in 2016.
The slow courts suit the Belgian, but I’m not sure they’ll suit Daniil Medvedev, whose flat hitting style doesn’t appear to be the best fit with the conditions here at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Karen Khachanov is really struggling at the moment, having switched racquets in the off-season and again I’m not sure that these conditions are ideal for Khachanov, but I’d slightly prefer him at the prices to Medvedev here.
Pablo Carreno Busta, another former semi finalist, is interesting at 400-1, but he’s had injury problems (shoulder) and I’m not sure how fit he is.
Conclusion
In an event that’s almost always won by one of the elite of the men’s game I’m leaning towards Federer for the outright win, but at 5-1 at his age it’s not fabulous value and depends a lot on Kyrgios taking out Djokovic.
It’s clearly a risky strategy with Kyrgios involved and instead I’m happy to just have a small interest in Coric and Thiem at big prices and await the ‘quarter winner’ markets to see if there’s any value there.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Coric at 67.0
0.5 points win Thiem at 81.0
