I said at the start of the week that there was big-priced outright value in the bottom half of the draw, but Richard Gasquet at 300-1 is one I didn’t really consider to be a contender.
Gasquet faces David Goffin in the first of the semi finals on Saturday at (not before) 18:00 UK time (13:00 local) and it’s set to be another warm and humid day (61% humidity at 13:00) for the players to deal with.
And you would think that Goffin would have a decent fitness advantage in this one, having enjoyed a day off on Friday due to his slated opponent Yoshihito Nishioka coming down with sickness and withdrawing.
In the meantime, Gasquet was slugging it out in the heat over three sets against Roberto Bautista Agut for over two hours and given the Gasman’s record of questionable fitness the price of 1.50 on Goffin starts to make some sense.
It’s been a remarkable change in level from Gasquet, who prior to this week had looked all but done at this level, with his mobility seriously impaired due to constant back problems.
He seems to have overcome that issue – for now – and he impressed against Diego Schwartzman and RBA, vitally for his fitness you feel winning the opening set tie break in both matches.
Schwartzman should have taken that set one breaker against Gasquet and faded once he lost it from a winning position, but Gasquet showed his fitness when proving the stronger player in the decider versus RBA.
It’s a third career meeting between this pair, with Gasquet winning in three sets indoors at home in Montpellier and Goffin victorious in straight sets on quick outdoor hard in Tokyo in 2017.
The quickish conditions here should favour Goffin, whose “quick game” in Gasquet’s own words takes Gasquet out of his comfort zone in lively conditions.
Indeed, even in that Montpellier match that Gasquet won the Frenchman was unable to live with Goffin for three sets, tapping out in set two to hand Goffin a bagel.
Of that encounter, Goffin said: “This match completely escaped me. It's a shame, because I did not feel attacked or in difficulty.”
He allowed Gasquet’s ‘playing dead’ routine to put him off that day and he may well see that sort of performance from the Gasman today after his efforts versus RBA and perhaps he’ll be better placed to handle it this time.
The freshness of Goffin makes him a fair favourite here, but too short for me to back today at that price.
Later on at (not before) 18:00 local time (23:00 UK) top seed, defending champion and tournament favourite Novak Djokovic faces the in-form (but apparently not tired yet) Daniil Medvedev.
Not many players other than the elite win back-to-back matches against Djokovic (indeed, even Nadal has done it just once since 2013 and Federer not at all since 2012) and that’s what Medvedev is trying to do, having taken down the Serb on clay in Monte-Carlo as a 4.85 chance back in April.
I’ve not exactly got it right in trying to second guess the energy levels of Medvedev so far this week – in fact he’s cost me several times lately, from losing the Washington final when we were on him outright to beating Edmund and Struff easily.
He’s carried on in the same metronomic style this week that we’ve seen for the last few weeks and making back-to-back-to-back finals in this heat on North American hard courts by beating Djokovic would be some achievement.
Djokovic will be determined to snuff out this particular threat ahead of the US Open and having lost to Medvedev last time, but he did seem to have a bit of an elbow issue in his win over Lucas Pouille on Friday.
The Serb had the physio out for a chat about it and he had this to say of that issue: “I don't know, I'm going to see. Hopefully everything will be fine for tomorrow [Saturday].”
So, it’s a tricky one again, with Djokovic possibly injured, maybe not, and Medvedev coming to the end of three long weeks on hard courts in energy sapping conditions.
The way that Medvedev plays his matches and wins his matches is eye-catching, but if we look back to last week he was the same coming into the final against Rafael Nadal and came very much unstuck against an elite opponent.
Djokovic is a 1.28 chance this time on a hard court and in theory Medvedev’s flat hitting on both sides on a much quicker court than Monte-Carlo should cause the Serb some problems.
The problem for Medvedev against these elite guys is that they defend that much better than the rest of the tour and he can’t bully them as he does with ‘lesser’ opposition and when his game isn’t working he can just disappear, as he did against Nadal.
Medvedev may be able to take a set here, but it’s a tricky one with both men under something of a fitness question mark: Medvedev with a ton of tennis in his legs and Djokovic with a dodgy elbow, so it’ll be a small wager on Djokovic prevailing 2-1 here at around.
There may well be some more tempting opportunities for us when the prices come out for Winston-Salem outright and I’ll be back with that preview later tonight.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Djokovic to beat Medvedev 2-1 at 3.75
