It was a good day for underdog backers in China on Thursday, with several of my suggested odds-against shots winning, including bet of the day, Egor Gerasimov.
Gerasimov had to do it the hard way in three tie breaks against John Isner, but he was a worthy winner in the end, having never faced a break point.
Indeed, Gerasimov led by a mini-break in all three of the tie breaks and as well as the Belarusian, those on Joao Sousa and Alexander Bublik would also have collected, plus any that opted for Damir Dzumhur over Soon-Woo Kwon.
The hot and humid weather made life difficult for the players in Zhuhai on Thursday and it looks set to be challenging again on Friday, with 31C heat in the shade and humidity of around the 50% mark.
It was too much for top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who retired in set three against Adrian Mannarino saying that he couldn’t breathe, and I’ve mentioned before that Tsitsipas has been a notable struggler in very humid conditions.
Andreas Seppi may be one to struggle on Friday after a very tight final set tie break win over Zhizhen Zhang (2-6 down in that deciding breaker) and he said: “I was so tired… I’m happy about that [the win] also because I was really down with the energy.”
On that basis a clash with Roberto Bautista Agut doesn’t seem ideal, but if it weren’t for Seppi’s possible fatigue I may be tempted with the 2-1 win for RBA in that one, as Seppi has caused RBA problems in the past.
Indeed, this heat and humidity may well separate those who fancy it this week from those who don’t and there’s a chance that the likes of Gael Monfils, Borna Coric and maybe even RBA won’t fancy it on Friday.
Alex De Minaur looked pumped up though when he finally got the better of Andy Murray in a late one on Thursday night and the Aussie looks like one player that’s here to win this week on his performances so far.
One player that may prefer to head off to next week is Adrian Mannarino, who doesn’t usually go well indoors (technically Zhuhai is outdoors, but it’s under a roof) but made the final in Tokyo in 2017, so he’ll have good memories there.
Manna is set to play qualies there in the coming days, so on a tricky-looking day for value seekers it could pay to take him on against an opponent who’s bust a gut this week for the first time in a fair old while.
I said yesterday that Damir Dzumhur might well upset Soon-Woo Kwon and so it proved and now he faces Mannarino in very hot conditions – as he did when the pair clashed on grass in the Antalya final of 2017.
Dzumhur ended up winning the deciding set of that one 6-1 and after a season of disappointment and frustration for the Bosnian you get the sense just at the moment that he’s starting to find that desire again.
And with the lack of serious weaponry in his game Dzumhur relies on keeping a high-intensity as one of his strengths, so he does need to be near fully fit to execute his game plan.
He came out on top last time against Mannarino by mixing it up and denying Mannarino the baseline rhythm the Frenchman thrives on, so Dzumhur will be utilising that tactic again: different spins, depths, height and drop shots to frustrate Mannarino.
The Bosnian also has a good record against lefties, winning 11 of his last 15 main level matches against left-handers that aren’t named Rafael Nadal.
Dzumhur can also give it his all this week, as he isn’t scheduled to play next week (unless he wins this match and gets a special exemption, I suppose) where Mann might be tempted to look to Tokyo.
I’ll risk Dzumhur at slight odds-against here, as the most viable, for me, of Friday’s underdogs.
At the Chengdu Open the weather looks kinder at around 25C in the shade and 50% humidity, so more bearable than Zhuhai, but I’m struggling to fancy anything strongly here.
Lloyd Harris has been playing some good stuff this week, but we’ll see if he can keep it up against the all-action style of Joao Sousa, who took down Felix Auger-Aliassime on Thursday.
I wasn’t expecting Harris to beat Lajovic, but Harris served very well (16 aces and 88% of first serve points won) and we know how poorly Lajovic has gone in the past against big servers.
If Harris stays at that level he’s in with a good shot, but whether he will or no remains to be seen.
Another possibility is Cristian Garin, who, again I didn’t expect to beat Edmund and Verdasco back-to-back on a fast hard court, but it’s not out of the question by any means that he could do it again versus Pablo Carreno Busta.
There was only three points between Garin and Verdasco in a tight one on Thursday, while PCB limited Benoit Paire to a measly 28% of second serve points won in their encounter.
Paire was dominant on his first ball (93% won) but nowhere near on his second and I’d expect a good tussle here, with over 2.5 sets a distinct possibility at 2.43.
Given the form and confidence right now of Egor Gerasimov and the weak record of Denis Shapovalov at the business end of tournaments I have to give the Belarusian a shot here, too.
Shapo has lost five of his last eight in quarter finals and all six of his semi finals, so he’s hardly a cert here and less so after struggling past Bradley Klahn (who’d had physical issues the previous round) on Thursday.
Klahn won 61% of his second serve points against Shapovalov, which is a lot for Klahn at main level (average for the last 12 months on outdoor hard at main level is 51.9% and he won 43% of them against Jason Jung) and none of the Laver Cup crew have gone well this week.
So, some underdog possibilities in Chengdu as well, but I’ll take Dzumhur as my one wager for Friday.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Dzumhur to beat Mannarino at 2.05
