One of the things that strikes you when looking back at the results over the years at Indian Wells is the amount of ‘clay courters’ that are able to beat opponents generally regarded as being more effective on hard courts.
That was the case again in 2018 when the following results were recorded in rounds one and two of the BNP Paribas Open:
Cuevas d. Shapovalov
Kicker d. Dzumhur
Kicker d. Vesely
Delbonis d. Harrison
Zeballos d. Sugita
Daniel d. Norrie
Daniel d. Djokovic
Sousa d. A.Zverev
All of the winners in that list were decent underdogs and if we look at the results from the last two years in round one at Indian Wells we find that a whopping 48% of matches were won by the player priced up as underdog.
Indeed, there were 38 underdog winners at Indian Wells overall last year, which represents 42% of the matches, and so I’m happy to take some risks in the opening days this year.
Federico Delbonis vs Jordan Thompson
This price on Delbonis, who’s one of those ‘clay courters’ that have a very decent record at Indian Wells, against a player with mediocre main level stats and who’s never won a M1000 match looks worth taking.
Delbonis is in that list above, beating Ryan Harrison when priced up as a 3.35 chance on day one in 2018, and in these conditions I see no reason why he can’t do something similar against Thompson.
The Aussie has done very little indeed at main level to earn a quote of 1.48 here, with a 13-27 all-time win/loss mark on outdoor hard (95.0 hold/break total), zero wins at this level and one career match played at Indian Wells.
He’s been a little better this season, but he’s still only won four of his last 21 matches against top-100 ranked opposition such as Delbonis and his 3-8 main level mark on clay highlights an issue on slower surfaces.
Delbonis is being priced on his own very average record on hard courts (17-36 win/loss and 92.1 hold/break total at main level), but most are too quick for him and his record here reads 6-5 win/loss (beat Andy Murray here) and with a 101.6 hold/break total.
In these conditions I’m happy to take Delbonis as a potential underdog winner on day one.
The other one that may be worth taking is a bit riskier, but the out of form Ilya Ivashka is another one who is very much unproven on slower surfaces and he’s also in a slump, losing five of his last six matches – three to opponents ranked between 143 and 351.
He’s won only four of his last 14 matches against top-100 opponents and if we look at his clay form we find that he’s 0-4 win/loss (0-9 in sets) at main level, holding serve only 43.5% of the time and he’s 0-7 at all levels versus top-100 opponents.
That backs up a bit the view that he’s more of a fast court player and he’s never played Indian Wells (or the Challenger here or qualies), so he’s got a bit to prove for me in these conditions.
His opponent Guido Andreozzi is very much a clay courter, but he has shown glimpses of form on hard, beating Radu Albot and Marton Fucsovics in quicker conditions than this in Winston-Salem last season and he beat Matt Ebden in pacy conditions in Sydney this year.
I’d expect the conditions to suit him more than Ivashka and I’m happy to take a chance on the Argentine at a price of around the 3.15 mark.
Others of underdog interest on day one include the in-form Felix Auger-Aliassime against Cam Norrie, Maximilian Marterer over Ugo Humbert, Prajnesh Gunneswaran versus Benoit Paire and Mischa Zverev against Martin Klizan.
Humbert looks very short indeed in conditions that he may well find challenging given his very attacking style, while Paire has a poor record here (no wins since 2013) and Zverev may well be motivated for a change by the prospect of playing his brother in the next round.
Both Zverev and Klizan have weak records here, but it may be the case that Zverev simply fancies it more for the aforementioned reason, while Albert Ramos is another one that could be worth backing at a decent price.
He faces Damir Dzumhur, who’s 1-5 win/loss in all matches at Indian Wells and may find it too high bouncing on this surface against someone like Ramos with heavy spin.
Ramos has had some good results here over the years and I certainly wouldn’t be backing Dzumhur, whose form and attitude has been poor for some time, at odds-on here.
Best Bets
1 point win Delbonis to beat Thompson at 2.60
0.5 points win Andreozzi to beat Ivashka at 3.15
