Well, we got the challenge we wanted to Stefanos Tsitsipas from Ricardas Berankis in Basel on Thursday, but once again I managed to select the wrong bet choice from the handicap options.
The +1.5 sets would have been fine for Berankis backers (or the big price about him winning set one) but a 2-6 middle set cost us +4.5 games backers by one game in that one.
It’s not been a good week so far for underdog backers, with only five of 24 (21%) landing in Vienna and the same number in Basel from 23 matches so far.
I said yesterday that Dominic Thiem may have to go to three sets to get the better of Fernando Verdasco in Vienna and that’s exactly what happened, but Thiem will surely be altogether happier with Friday’s Spanish match-up.
Having seen off the threat of Verdasco in a decider, Thiem now takes on Pablo Carreno Busta, who the Austrian has beaten the last seven times in a row on clay, hard and indoor hard.
Unlike Verdasco, PCB has little to really hurt Thiem with and in front of his home crowd in Vienna it’s tough to see what’s probably quite a tired Carreno Busta turning the form on its head.
Despite the 1-8 career series record it’s not been totally one-sided, with Thiem holding serve only 6.4% more often than PCB in the seven matches in the series that I have stats for.
But there’s only one stat category that PCB leads in, with Thiem ahead in first serve points won, second serve points won, return points, and break point chances created, while PCB’s only joy has been to convert a higher frequency of break points (48% to 42%).
PCB has now played 24 sets in the last three tournament weeks, which is more than double that of Thiem, and at this stage of the season it’s hard to see where he’s going to find the energy he needs to win this one.
Andrey Rublev is another one for whom fatigue may be an issue after his efforts in Moscow last week and while the Russian is a tempting option as underdog against Matteo Berrettini I’m not sure he’ll have enough in his legs.
Berrettini had last week off and has had a day off since his last match here in Vienna and at this stage of the season it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Rublev simply didn’t have the energy to play at the level needed to better the big hitting Italian.
Diego Schwartzman is a possible underdog option against Karen Khachanov, with the Russian still not really close to the level he was at a year ago, but it’s a tough ask for Schwartzman indoors.
I said yesterday that Schwartzman may lose to Sam Querrey in these conditions and he nearly did, coming through in a final set tie break and despite him being clearly the better player off the ground he still only broke Querrey twice in 17 service games.
I prefer Schwartzman on outdoor hard generally and I certainly wouldn’t back Khachanov at 1.67, but I just feel that Schwartzman gets bullied out of it sometimes by the big hitters indoors.
Moving onto Basel now and I said in my outright preview that I liked the chances of Alex De Minaur in the bottom half of the Swiss Open draw, but his price of 12-1 was too short in my opinion.
With Roger Federer in the field it probably was a bit short, but on current form it’s hard to see De Minaur not getting past Jan-Lennard Struff and into the semi finals.
Struff has been poor in recent weeks after a very good season overall and unless he serves at his absolute best on Friday it’s tough to see him at his current level matching De Minaur off the ground.
As well as ADM’s title in Zhuhai, which was effectively played on indoor hard, the Aussie’s last 12 months on ‘proper’ indoor hard has seen him hold serve 92.4% of the time and break 27% of the time, which are fabulous numbers.
Granted, it’s from only eight matches, but he’s shown this week that he’s still in form and his record against one of the biggest servers around lately in Reilly Opelka has been great as well, with ADM winning all three played this season.
They were in quick conditions, too, in Sydney, Atlanta and Cincy and this surface in Basel isn’t as quick as that and in these conditions De Minaur should be beating Struff.
Given the lack of what I consider to be decent betting opportunities on Friday and the weak showing from the underdogs so far this week, I’m going to take on a very rare double bet, with Roberto Bautista Agut the second leg of a 2.25 wager.
I didn’t much fancy Reilly Opelka to beat David Goffin on Thursday, but the American edged him out of it late in the third and it would be galling if the same thing happened to my bets in Stockholm and Basel this year as occurred 12 months ago.
That time I backed Marius Copil in the ATP 250 in Stockholm, he lost in round one (to Bradley Klahn) and then went on to make the final at a higher level the next week in Basel as a qualifier.
Now it’s Opelka that lost in round one in Stockholm (to Stefano Travaglia) and is now a couple of matches from making the Basel final, but I’m not sure I see him defeating RBA.
Bautista Agut beat Opelka a few weeks ago on the fastest surface of the season in Shanghai and again unless Opelka comes out with a match of unplayable serving it’s tough to see the American coming out on top.
In that match Opelka won only 50% of his service points that weren’t aces and with the Spaniard gunning for a spot at the World Tour Finals and seeing Alexander Zverev lose early this week RBA will surely be keen to win this one.
If he wins and Berrettini loses on Friday RBA will overtake the Italian and move into eighth place in that Race to London and I expect the Spaniard to move on in this one.
Roger Federer is 25-3 against Stan Wawrinka at all levels and 5-0 on indoor hard and having looked in pretty good form so far this week it’s tough to have a great deal of confidence in Wawrinka causing the upset there.
So, not a day where I’ve got much confidence in the underdogs and I’ll have a rare multiple bet for small stakes only on Friday.
Best Bet
0.5 points win De Minaur and Bautista Agut both to win at 2.25
