Marton Fucsovics provided a welcome underdog winner on Wednesday after a tricky start to week seven, as the Hungarian was just a little too good for Martin Klizan in Rotterdam, while those who took my second piece of advice on would also have profited from Stan Wawrinka beating Milos Raonic.
I’m going to move away from Rotterdam a bit on Thursday, as there are four matches in Buenos Aires that are interesting from a betting perspective.
Pablo Cuevas vs Joao Sousa
Although Sousa has won all three of this pair’s clashes (one by retirement) on indoor hard it’s been Cuevas that had had by far the better of things on his favoured clay, winning both meetings easily.
The slow, red dirt allows Cuevas to really work the angles and play on his own terms and it’s been far too good for Sousa in the past – so much so that the Portuguese has only held serve 51.5% of the time against Cuevas.
And Cuevas isn’t know for his prolific break of serve percentage by any means (usually around the 21% mark on clay) and he’s held his won deal 93.9% of the time against Sousa on clay.
One of those matches was back in 2014 but the other was less than two years ago on slow clay and importantly it does look this season that Cuevas is getting back towards the sort of form he was in 2016 and 2017.
Sousa’s last 50 main level matches on clay have yielded a hold/break total of 99.3, while Cuevas is over 105 and almost 108 in the last 12 months, despite not winning as regularly.
It doesn’t look a good match-up at all for Sousa and if Cuevas is on his game he should be able to cover a -2.5 game handicap at 1.76.
Dominic Thiem has a superb record lately in his opening clay tournament of the year, winning a title in each of the last three seasons, and while it may take him a little while to get going he should be able to expose Maximilian Marterer’s poor movement in these slow conditions.
The other two matches look like they could well go the way of the underdogs though, with Aljaz Bedene holding a 4-0 career series lead over Diego Schwartzman – one of those wins coming here in Buenos Aires last season.
Schwartzman has displayed clear signs of struggling with the pressure of playing at home and in his last eight matches here at tour level the highest ranked player he’s beaten was 78th ranked Facundo Bagnis.
I’m far from convinced that Schwartzman is at his best on slow clay like this and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bedene caused him problems again, although it should be noted that the Slovenian did play remarkably well on the big points in that Buenos Aires clash last year.
There were just a few signs in round one that Albert Ramos might be starting to emerge from a slump that’s seen him make just one quarter final in his last 26 tournaments.
It was a good match-up for him against Rogerio Dutra Silva in round one, but he looked better than he has for a while and we’ll see if he can carry that on against the soon-to-be-retired David Ferrer.
Ferrer can’t play more than a few matches in a row now, hence the retirement, and his hold/break total on clay has slipped to just 100 in his last 10 main level matches.
If Ramos comes in with the right attitude (he did finally beat Ferrer at the seventh time of asking the last time they met) he has his chances in this one.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
The two underdogs that look to have the best prospects in Rotterdam on Thursday are Ernests Gulbis and Fernando Verdasco against Kei Nishikori and Daniil Medvedev respectively.
In the last 12 months at main level on indoor hard Nishikori and Gulbis have virtually identical hold/break totals of 110 and when they clashed at Wimbledon last summer Nishi held serve 95% of the time and Gulbis 91% of the time.
Gulbis on the handicap is an option, while Verdasco on a good day has possibilities against Medvedev, but the low bounce in Rotterdam is a bit off-putting.
Verdasco did beat Medvedev on grass last summer, but it was in Rosmalen, where it plays on the slower side and bounces quite high for a grass court.
I get the sense that Medvedev might be a tad fatigued after his run last week and Davis Cup before that, but I’m not convinced that these conditions will help the Spaniard in this match-up.
Best Bet
1 point win Cuevas -2.5 games to beat Sousa at 1.76
