We were unlucky with Rudolf Molleker in Halle on Tuesday when the young German missed with a lob on match point to defeat Sergiy Stakhovsky in straight sets.
A couple of points later he’d lost the set and then Molleker faded in the decider, but we got as close as we could with our 2.60 shot on a day that proved me right in thinking that underdog value was thin on the ground.
Not one of the 10 dogs won and Molleker was the only one to take a set on a great day for favourite backers in Halle.
As predicted, rain decimated the day’s play in London and with more rain forecast for Wednesday I’ll have to stick with Halle for day three’s preview, where another warm day is forecast.
Borna Coric vs Joao Sousa
I’ve said a few times already this grass swing that Coric doesn’t impress me on this surface and again yesterday he ground out a tough win over clay specialist Jaume Munar, against whom Coric created just one break point all match.
That came after a loss to our man Adrian Mannarino last week in Rosmalen, where he should also have lost to another clay courter, Cristian Garin, who blew a 5-2 lead in their final set.
Now he takes on another opponent for whom the slower courts are more to his liking in Sousa and unless we see an improvement from Coric I find it hard to see him as a 1.26 shot to win this.
He probably will win it, but Sousa looks underrated here, given that his performances and stats in Halle are respectable and despite his 2-4 record in the main draw Sousa has been very competitive.
Sousa took a set off Roger Federer, beat Jan-Lennard Struff, and lost in deciders to Philipp Kohlschreiber and Robin Haase and he’s never lost in fewer than 22 total games in the Halle main draw.
He’s held serve 83% of the time here in total and that’s been against the players I just mentioned and Dominic Thiem, so he’s not been easy to break even by that calibre of opponent.
Indeed, his hold/break total in the main draw of Halle of 98.7 is better than Coric’s all-time main level grass total of 97.7, so I’m happy to take a chance on Sousa being competitive again.
I said in my preview the other day that Sousa could well prove to be a decent underdog against Hubert Hurkacz, whose movement is letting him down on grass, and you don’t get anything for free against the Portuguese at this tournament.
Seven of Sousa’s eight opening sets in Halle (qualies and main draw) have gone over 9.5 total games and five have gone past 10.5 games, while nine of Coric’s last 13 completed opening sets on grass have gone to at least 10.5 games.
That makes the price of 2.80 on over 10.5 games in set one quite tempting, while over 22.5 games or Coric to win it 2-1 also look fair options in this one.
The pair have never met, but unless Coric plays really well – better than he has so far this grass swing or for most of his grass career – this looks likely to be another grind for the Croat.
The other one that looks rather short on Wednesday is David Goffin, who remains very up and down in his level and can’t be trusted at odds like 1.25 against a capable and gritty opponent like Radu Albot.
Goffin was on one of his good days against Guido Pella on Tuesday, serving nine aces and winning 85% of the points on first serve, but Pella was poor and hadn’t played a grass match for a year.
Contrast those numbers with the ones from the match immediately prior to it in Rosmalen when Goffin hit four aces, 10 double faults, and won 65% of his first serve points against Mannarino.
There’s no consistency in Goffin at all this season and he’s been made to work very hard by Albot in the past as well, winning on clay (where Albot struggles) in a final set tie break in Gstaad and in a final set indoors in Sofia, both in 2017.
Albot is much improved since then, but is Goffin? I’d suggest not and Goffin only held serve 3% more often than Albot in those two meetings.
I said the other day that Albot’s movement makes him decent on grass and he showed against Matt Ebden that he’s more than capable on this surface and I like the over 22.5 games at 2.18 here.
Our outright Jan-Lennard Struff has struggled to play in Halle over the years, but he’s finally on the board after beating Laslo Djere on Tuesday and he’s got every chance against Karen Khachanov on Wednesday.
The pair haven’t clashed since 2016 and on current form I’d fancy the German to come out on top here, but it’s sure to be a bruising affair, with no quarter asked or given.
Finally, there may be a hint of value about Sergiy Stakhovsky against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, with the Frenchman yet to really take to grass and he was flattered rather by his win over a poor Gael Monfils in round one.
I was happy to take Stakho on as a 1.50 favourite against Molleker, but at 3.15 here he’s worth thinking about.
He didn’t come to the net much at all against Molleker and we’ll see how he plays it against Herbert, who’s won their two career clashes pretty comfortably in the past, but PHH looks rather short on a surface he’s never really achieved much on.
So, all the underdogs look competitive on Wednesday and they may have a much better day than they did on Tuesday.
Best Bets
1 point win over 10.5 games in set one of Coric/Sousa at 2.80
1 point win over 22.5 games in Goffin/Albot at 2.18
