Kyle Edmund provided another odds-against winner for us in Miami on Sunday, as the Brit wasn’t to face a break point against Milos Raonic in a straight sets success.
The third round of the Miami Open has rarely been a good one for backing underdog winners in recent times, with only one of 15 winning in 2017 and an average of 23% winning this decade.
The most there have been this decade so far is the six of 16 in 2016 and there were only two on Sunday (Edmund and Auger-Aliassime).
Conditions looks set to be quite tough on Monday, with high humidity (around 60%) and heat of around 29C, so fitness will be key on day six. It’ll be cloudy too, so no sun to speed the courts up.
That fact alone (assuming the forecast is correct) puts me off backing Frances Tiafoe as slight underdog against David Ferrer, with Tiafoe noted in my book as the tennis equivalent of a doubtful stayer (to use horse racing parlance) in hot and humid conditions.
He had to be helped off the court after two sets against Miomir Kecmanovic the other day, but on the other hand this week is the first time since Auckland 2018 that Ferrer has won back-to-back matches at tour level.
Grigor Dimitrov vs Jordan Thompson
I’m not convinced at all that one fair performance against a woeful Feli Lopez should mean that Dimitrov is a 1.33 favourite to beat an in-form Thompson in just the Bulgarian’s second match back after injury.
Lopez offered nothing at all against Dimitrov and surely this will be a much sterner test from Thompson, who has started to find his feet at this level again after a lengthy spell of only being able to produce in Challengers.
Thompson didn’t have to do a great deal to beat a dismal Karen Khachanov in the last round, but it’s still a confidence-boosting win for the Aussie and as far as recent stats are concerned there’s very little between Thompson and Dimitrov at the moment.
Dimitrov has produced a service hold/break total of 102.5 in the past 12 months on outdoor hard at main level, while Thompson is now not far behind on 100.5.
Add to that Dimitrov’s weak record here and Miami and his lengthy injury lay-off and it adds up for me to Thompson +3.5 games being the bet.
Marco Cecchinato vs David Goffin
The other favourite that looks shaky to me on Monday’s card is Goffin, who is currently in yet another one of his regular crises in confidence at the moment and should be tested by Cecchinato on these slow courts.
Cecchinato bagelled the Belgian in a four-set victory at the French Open last season as a 4.72 underdog and with Goffin still trying shake off his current funk I’m not sure why Goffin is as short as 1.27 for this one.
Goffin had to drop down to Challenger level after losing in straight sets to Filip Krajinovic at Indian Wells (Krajinovic had 15 break point chances on the Goffin serve in two sets) and that didn’t go well for Goffin either.
He lost to Salvatore Caruso in Phoenix and was no doubt thankful that Pablo Andujar wasn’t in great form in his first match here in Miami, but Andujar still created nine break chances against Goffin in two sets.
If we look at the second serve points won stat of recent Goffin matches we find the following win percentages: 38% (Krajinovic), 40% Carballes Baena, 58% (Ruud), 41% (Caruso) and 33% (Andujar).
The Ruud match apart, those are not the numbers of a player in any sort of form from the back of the court and given that Goffin only won 42% on second serve against Cecchinato in Paris and that Cecchinato created 18 break chances I’m having a hard time understanding these odds.
Much of it must be to do with Cecchinato’s weak record on hard courts, but he won’t find many hard courts more suitable for his game than this and in any case he can play on quicker courts.
Wins over Hyeon Chung and Gilles Simon in Shanghai showed that and he made the semis in Doha, too, so while a lack of a first match here isn’t ideal (slated opponent Dzumhur withdrew) Cecchinato +1.5 sets or +4.5 games look good options here.
Elsewhere, Kevin Anderson is probably the other favourite that might be shaky, given his lack of match fitness, match sharpness and after being off the tour for a few months with an elbow injury he also had problems with his hip in his opening match.
Joao Sousa could well get his reward in these slow conditions just for hanging around against Anderson, who might not be up to it physically if it goes long.
Filip Krajinovic has never shown anything like the belief that he can beat the elite players, but on form alone he has a shot against Roger Federer, who wasn’t a million miles away from being taken out by Radu Albot in round two.
Best Bets
1 point win Thompson +3.5 games to beat Dimitrov at 1.90
1 point win Cecchinato +4.5 games to beat Goffin at 1.68
