Saturday was bitterly disappointing for those of us on Dominic Thiem outright, with the Austrian ousted in two tie break sets by Novak Djokovic, who then had a nice rest, while Stefanos Tsitsipas played the way that I had hoped Stan Wawrinka would on Friday to take down Rafa Nadal.
It was a bit windy on Manolo Santana Court on Saturday, but the forecast for Sunday suggests little wind (12kph) and a nice, sunny day of around 25C when the final is set to start at (not before) 18:30 local time (17:30 UK).
Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
There’s an obvious fitness advantage for Djokovic in this second career clash between the Serb and Greek, but I’m not sure if it’s really enough of one to have Djokovic priced up as short as 1.37.
Djokovic came from a break down in both sets against our man Thiem to win it in two breakers and was done by around 17:00 local time, while Tsitsipas had to slug it out with Nadal until almost midnight.
So, it wouldn’t have been a great night’s sleep for Tsitsipas, who was probably still trying to come down off the high of beating Nadal for the first time – and on clay in Madrid too – in the early hours.
A definite advantage for Djokovic one would think, but I’m not totally convinced that it’s an insurmountable challenge for Tsitsipas, who’s playing with a lot of confidence right now.
He wasn’t great in Estoril last week, as I said before, (yet still won the title) but he’s stepped it up considerably in Madrid and the way that he wasn’t afraid to take it to Nadal after three heavy defeats to Rafa previously is a very good sign for Tsitsipas today.
The lack of sleep may prove an issue in the latter stages of this match and that makes me think about backing the 2-1 win for Djokovic here at a price of around 3.85.
Djokovic, of course, has played one match fewer than Tsitsipas as well after Marin Cilic withdrew from their slated quarter final clash and the probability is that Novak will finish the stronger on Sunday.
That doesn’t mean that Tsitsipas won’t be a real match for the Serb, who, sadly for us, once again showed some of his best stuff in a big match when it really mattered.
Down in both sets to Thiem it was Djokovic that was much the better on the big points, but Thiem showed that the Serb’s defences can be breached by an aggressive single hander in these conditions.
And I’d expect Tsitsipas to be fully aware of that (indeed, he said of the final, “I have to play the same way”), having taken down Djokovic as a 4.50 chance when the pair clashed in Toronto at the Rogers Cup on outdoor hard last summer.
That day Tsitsipas didn’t have his serve broken at all by Djokovic – one of the few times in the Serb’s career that he’s failed to break serve – and he only faced two break points, so he had no issue with the match-up on the day.
It certainly wasn’t Djokovic at his best that day and he will have learned a lot from that first career meeting, but on a warm day with little wind at altitude if Tsitsipas serves his best this will likely be a very tough one for Djokovic.
What stood out from the Nadal match (apart from Rafa really starting to look rather slow) was the belief that Tsitsipas had, even when he lost the second set comfortably, and it was a convincing win in the end for the Greek.
It was another example of Tsitsipas not being afraid to beat the big names (he’s now beaten Nadal, Federer and Djokovic at major or Masters level) as many others are and that belief could be key on Sunday.
The fatigue issue does concern me, but it wasn’t as if he played an Anderson/Isner 6.5 hour match, it was only just over 2.5 hours, and we just have to weigh up how much of an effect that late finish will have.
If you’d backed Djokovic each time he’s played on clay at main level when priced up between 1.30 and 1.50 you’d be some way down, as he’s only 16-10 win/loss and if I were backing the Serb today I’d go for the 2-1 option in set betting.
But I’m siding with Tsitsipas to shake off the fatigue (he’s only 20 after all) and take a set here at 1.77.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Tsitsipas +1.5 sets at 1.77
