I said yesterday that our man Dominic Thiem had every chance as underdog against Milos Raonic and that proved to be the case, with the Austrian not facing a break point in the match until he got nervous trying to serve it out.
Now we’re faced with an altogether different prospect in the final after my other, rather easier, prediction from yesterday came to pass – that of Rafa Nadal not showing for his slated semi final against Roger Federer.
Rafa was never likely to risk further damage to his knee with the clay swing not too far away and it means that Thiem takes on Federer in Sunday’s final at around 22:30 UK time (15:30 local).
It’s going to be a hot one in the desert on Sunday, with the gauge reaching 29C when the final is due to start and the heat will help Thiem’s heavy top spin and kick serve to hopefully keep Federer out of range.
The Austrian has beaten Federer in two of their four career meetings: on the clay of Rome in straight sets as a 2.90 underdog in 2016 and, perhaps surprisingly, on grass in Stuttgart as a 3.62 chance a month later, so he’s got form in upsetting the Swiss maestro.
Certainly the conditions here at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden are as ideal as it gets for Thiem on a hard court against Federer, with their most recent career clash coming on indoor hard.
That was at the O2 at the end of last season when Thiem had a woeful tournament and he coughed up 34 unforced errors in two sets against Federer in an attempt to be really aggressive that went badly wrong.
He’ll be much more able to play his natural game in these conditions on Sunday than he did at the O2, but a lot will depend on how well Thiem serves.
Thiem’s been very good on his own deal this week, holding serve 95.7% of the time, and much of that is due to the conditions helping him to really kick it up to get the short return that he can then feed off.
It’ll be interesting to see how Federer deals with that, as when they met in Rome Fed was struggling with a back injury, and even their clash on grass was interrupted by rain a couple of times.
Thiem’s been so solid on serve (admittedly he’s faced Raonic and Karlovic) that he’s won a shade more second serve points this week than Federer has (both almost 60%), but will he be able to land a blow on the Fed serve?
That’s something he’s struggled with in the past, with Federer holding serve 86.5% of the time in those four matches against Thiem and what Thiem had to say about it pre-their O2 clash is revealing.
“I think it's almost unreadable,” Thiem admitted. “It can happen [that] you play a set against him where he plays his service games in less than one minute. You have just no chance, and that puts such a big pressure on your service games.
“The thing is that if he feels comfortable on his own service games, then he tries stuff out in the return games and he plays more freely and he is just the best ever, where he hits winners from every position and he can make you look very bad. You feel rushed…”
Both guys will be using the kick serve in these conditions and I’d expect breaks of serve to be few, with a tie break likely (there’s been at least one in five of the last nine finals at Indian Wells).
Federer to win the opener 7-6 is one, risky, way to hedge your outright on Thiem at a price of around 5-1, but I’m happy to wait a bit and hedge this one in-play, with perhaps the best hedging bet the 1.50 that’s available on Federer winning the first set and the match.
Fed’s record in finals when losing the first set is poor: he’s lost 11 of his last 12 finals when he’s dropped the first set (exception being in Basel when he came back to beat Del Potro in 2017).
Going back further he’s won only three of his last 20 when he’s failed to win the opening set since he beat Murray in the 2012 Wimbledon final from a set down, so a fast start is expected from the Swiss veteran.
The odds are against us here, but the way that Thiem is playing and the suitability of his game to these slow and bouncy conditions gives him a shot, so I’ll wait until such time as Thiem gets ahead to hedge my outright.
If he gets beaten in straight sets easily, so be it, but I’m sure some readers would have had Thiem each-way at a huge price, and I’ll only back Federer if Thiem leads by a break in set one or in set three.
Best Bet
10 points win Federer to beat Thiem (only if backed Thiem outright at 80-1) if Thiem leads by a break in set one or set three
