There was good news and bad news in Switzerland on Friday when firstly our 23-1 chance Nicolas Jarry swept into the final of the Geneva Open without dropping a set, but Federico Delbonis was beaten in a decider in the other semi final.
Delbonis was poor on serve all day in a three-set defeat to an Alexander Zverev, who was again far from his best, and I can’t help thinking that had Delbonis had continued his level from earlier in the week he would have been in with every chance.
Zverev served better than Delbonis on the day by quite some way and that was the difference in the end in that one, as the only winner I saw Zverev hit was right at the end on match point.
If the weather forecast is correct then we could have a problem in Geneva on Saturday for the final, with showers forecast all day until around 20:00.
Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry
I hope the weather forecast is wrong, as a damp court might blunt the big game of Jarry, which has been firing all week long in Geneva.
That said, it was drizzly in Barcelona a month ago when Jarry defeated Zverev in a tight encounter that ended in a final set tie break, so we know that our man can do it even at sea level against this opponent.
The altitude here makes it a bit quicker than Barcelona and as we’ve seen for much of the week Zverev is painfully lacking in confidence, taking a very deep court position and steering most of his ground strokes, rather than hitting them.
It was only a poor day from the service line from Delbonis that allowed him to get away with it on Friday and Hugo Dellien wasn’t far away from the win over the misfiring German either.
If we assume that Jarry will serve as he has done all week – never a given in a final – and Zverev continues to be negative and deep in the court this is there for the taking for the Chilean.
Jarry has been positive all week long, taking the game to an admittedly rather reactive set of opponents in Taro Daniel and Radu Albot, who rely on their movement and solidity to wear down opponents and that wasn’t possible for either against an in-form Jarry, whose power was just too much.
We haven’t really seen a dip from Jarry yet and I hope he isn’t saving it for the final because his level of play deserves a reward, where I can’t say that Zverev’s does by any means.
Jarry’s held serve 94.8% of the time this week (Zverev 82.3%) and broken 31.2% of the time (Zverev 38%), but the massive difference is in the second serve numbers, which show that Zverev from the back of the court – if it needed highlighting – has been poor.
The world number five has won only 36% of his second serve points this week (Jarry 30% better at 66%) against Gulbis, Dellien and Delbonis and that’s the same weak number that Zverev won against Jarry in Barcelona.
The German’s height will help him (compared to Albot) in returning the Jarry kick serve, but he’ll need a lot better off the ground than we’ve seen for most of the recent past.
He did start well against Delbonis, but he lacks the confidence to hit his forehand with any conviction for anything other than in short bursts at the moment and if Jarry maintains his aggressive approach and serves to the same level he can win this.
As far as our outright bet is concerned I’m hoping for a change of luck, as we’ve had four losing finalists (two as favourite) from five so far this season and I’m not going to hedge on Jarry at the current match prices.
On form Zverev is a shocking price at 1.40 and I’ll only hedge on Jarry in case he blinks when ahead, so either if he wins set one or if he leads by a break in a decider.
Over in Lyon their weather forecast looks slightly better, but still with the chance of rain disrupting things and with the French Open starting soon I won’t be risking any of this week’s profit on another match involving Benoit Paire.
The unpredictable Frenchman used all his bag of tricks to bamboozle Taylor Fritz on Friday and even had the cheek to say that he did it while struggling his back issue again.
“I was not too worried … I had back pain before the match, but I took a lot of care and relaxed as the match progressed. The fact that there were not a lot of rallies, it helped me.”
So, from that one would assume that Paire isn’t fully fit, but in all honesty I’m not of a mind to even consider a bet on the Lyon final, where Felix Auger-Aliassime is slight favourite.
I’ll be watching the Geneva final and studying for the French Open instead.
Best Bet
