A set one tie break between Feliciano Lopez and Felix Auger-Aliassime provided another odds-against winner on Saturday in what’s been a very good week for our daily bets on the grass.
You could be forgiven for thinking that the list of players in the title matches on Sunday is something from a decade ago, with a most unlikely final at Queen’s Club of 37-year-old Feliciano Lopez and 35-year-old Gilles Simon, while an almost 38-year-old Roger Federer is into another Halle final.
The weather forecast looks set fair at both venues on Sunday, so there should be no problems with rain interrupting either title match.
Roger Federer vs David Goffin
I’ve said a few times lately that Goffin has been really struggling to find a consistent level for a long while, but there are signs that he’s coming back to something like his old form now.
The win he had over Alexander Zverev a couple of days ago was backed up by an impressive straight sets success over the in-form Matteo Berrettini on Saturday and with Goffin much of the battle is to do with his own often brittle self confidence.
If the Belgian believes in himself he can certainly make odds of 1.15 on Federer look rather skinny and I guess we have no choice but to take him at his word.
“I gave him nothing,” Goffin said of his win over Berrettini. “I was focussed and aggressive. I played well from the start. I'm close to my best.”
If that is the case then we have to take Federer on in some way here, as we didn’t really learn a great deal about the Swiss maestro on Saturday in a facile win over an outmatched opponent in Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
Prior to the Herbert win Federer was struggling a bit, matched all the way by both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who was unlucky to lose, and Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn’t have the belief when it mattered, as usual against the elite.
Whether or not Goffin will have the belief remains to be seen after losing seven of his eight career matches against Federer, but the last two have seen Goffin win one and retire after a tight opening set in the other.
A Goffin that’s serving well has a shot against Federer, who, it should be recalled, lost as a 1.18 chance in last year’s Halle final to Borna Coric.
The Belgian moves well enough and is certainly a fine enough ball striker to cause big problems for the veteran Swiss if Goffin can keep up the level that we’ve seen in the last few days.
That’s been his problem lately, but at these prices I’m happy to take Goffin to win a set at 2.35 for a small stake and hope he can continue in the same manner as we saw in his quarter and semi finals.
Over at the Fever-Tree Championships, well, I said in my tournament outright preview that Queen’s looked more open this year than it has for a long time and that we may see a bigger-priced winner than usual.
If you’d told me that a 30-something Frenchman priced at bigger than 66-1 would be in the final I’d have hoped very much that it would have been Jeremy Chardy, but Gilles Simon is a surprise to me.
And that’s mainly due to how unfit he’s looked lately, so it’s even more of a surprise that he’s won four three-setters in a row and made the final as a 90-1 shot.
He was a little fortunate in that he faced an opponent in Daniil Medvedev who was below par physically himself in the semi finals, but you’ve got to wonder what Simon has left for the final after saying: “I was feeling the ball great, even if I wasn’t feeling great in the legs,” after the win over Medvedev.
Clearly he’s going to be tired and Feli Lopez might just have the edge as he’s played one match fewer (thanks to Del Potro’s withdrawal), but Lopez will be tired as well after three three setters himself.
The veteran Spaniard will fancy this though, having beaten Simon four times out of four on grass in their career series and six times from eight on all surfaces at all levels and he’s got to be favourite here for me.
I certainly won’t be betting on it, given the likely fatigue involved in this one, but the prices look about as right as they can be in the circumstances.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Goffin +1.5 sets to beat Federer at 2.35
