I said yesterday that Marin Cilic was “improving” but I may have to revise that opinion after a dismal showing on Thursday against Dominic Thiem in a match of questionable quality, as several were in (the not forecast) windy conditions.
Cilic failed with all nine of his break point chances and then we lost Nikoloz Basilashvili in another tight one – a final set tie break defeat in a match he had every chance in versus Alexander Zverev.
Zverev was awful again, but got away with it (again), thanks mainly to his first serve, as his ground game is still poor, as highlighted by 39% second serve points won and 14 double faults – most of them at key times and many of them huge doubles.
We do have a guaranteed big-priced semi finalist though, with Gael Monfils and Roberto Bautista Agut going head-to-head in the quarter final that I’d hoped for at the start of the tournament.
If ever there was a classic example of ignoring anything and everything that Monfils says, it’s been the last couple of days in Montreal before and after he eased past Hubert Hurkacz.
Before the match: “I lack training. I compensate for that, so I’m a bit short. Because of the injury and physically I’m not fit enough.”
After beating Hurkacz: “I feel almost 100% physically, I’m moving fast, that’s the key, if I’m fast like that I can catch a lot of balls and am tough to beat.”
So, there we are. I took a punt on his fitness at 100-1 and either he or RBA will be in the semis on Saturday, where one will most likely, but not definitely, take on Rafael Nadal.
I said yesterday that Fabio Fognini usually gets fired up with the prospect of playing Nadal on the horizon and that seemed to be the case again on Thursday when he played one of his more focused matches in beating Adrian Mannarino.
Fogna is another one whose fitness status is difficult to gauge by what he says to the media and here’s what he said a few days ago: “At the moment I have to be honest and say I'm not 100 percent healthy. But I'm going to try for sure to do my best.”
If anything it was Mannarino that was the one that looked to be struggling (hand injury) in their clash yesterday, so we’ll just have to see how the Italian shapes up on Friday, but I think we have to take a chance on him in some way at these prices.
Fognini almost always gives his best effort against Nadal and while Nadal played arguably the worst match of his career against Fognini in the Monte-Carlo semi finals he dies usually have to work pretty hard to beat the Italian.
Indeed, Fognini has taken at least one set seven times in their last 13 meetings and he famously beat Nadal from two sets down on outdoor hard at the US Open of 2015 when he was the same odds that he is today.
Nadal overcame the wind and the relatively straightforward challenge of Guido Pella on Thursday, with the Argentine lacking the weaponry to really hurt Nadal – but Fognini has it.
As ever with Fognini it’s a case of whether he’s willing or able to use his arsenal on the day and hopefully he can because 2.65 about him taking a set seems a pretty fair price.
Although Nadal (and Thiem now reportedly) think this is a fast court in Montreal it doesn’t look fast to me and probably not too dissimilar to the one that Fog beat Nadal on at the US Open.
Conditions are forecast to be unsettled again on Friday, with thunderstorms still around that may delay play and there’s some wind expected, but no more than a high of 19kph speeds.
So, hopefully we’ll get a competitive one there, with Fognini looking the underdog with the most potential value on Friday.
The others look to be priced up about right, with the layers not impressed with the dismal level of Alexander Zverev these days.
They’ve made him underdog against Karen Khachanov and when you consider that Zverev was a 2.90 shot when he crushed Zverev in the last eight of the Paris Masters last season that tells you all you need to know about the German’s form.
He might get lucky again, as Khachanov hasn’t found that level that he achieved in Paris since, but it might be enough against this Zverev, whose passivity and lack of confidence are going to see him punished at some point this week.
If he somehow edges past Khachanov he’d probably have to face Daniil Medvedev, who looks the man to beat in the bottom half of the draw.
Medvedev has a fine opportunity on Friday to record a first win over Dominic Thiem, who was a little fortunate again to come out on top against Cilic, who really missed a chance against the Austrian.
So far Thiem has won one more point than Shapovalov and five more than Cilic, but coming out on top in the key moments, but the flat hitting of Medvedev will surely rush the Austrian into errors on Friday.
The layers think so, too, putting Medvedev in at 1.61, which looks quite short, given that the Russian was a 2.58 on slowish indoor hard at St. Petersburg last autumn when Thiem won in a final set tie break.
I expect Medvedev to win it on current form, but very little value on the Russian at those prices and I’m happy to just take a small chance on Fognini today.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Fognini +1.5 sets to beat Nadal at 2.65
