Debrief

 

Fabio Fognini’s tame capitulation from a set up and around 1.20 in-play against Karen Khachanov in the Beijing quarter finals set the seal on a disappointing week at the Tokyo Open and China Open for our outrights.

A no-show from Benoit Paire, combined with a poor loss for Jan-Lennard Struff to Go Soeda (who’d lost all 12 of his previous main draw matches in Tokyo), was the sum total of our efforts in Japan, but with Novak Djokovic cruising to the final that pair would surely have had little impact on Djoko’s progress.

So, no repeat of last year’s 44-1 Tokyo winner Daniil Medvedev for us in 2019 and we move on to another tournament where we had success last year when Borna Coric made the final as a 100-1 shot.

 

Conditions and trends

 

The players head to the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena for what’s usually the quickest M1000 event of the year by quite some way, but it has been slowed down a bit in recent years.

They play on a Decoturf outdoor hard court with Dunlop balls and last year the speed was clocked at 40.2, which is down on the 44.4 of 2016 and 42.9 of 2017, but it’s still one of the fastest surfaces of the year.

Novak Djokovic has twice won it without even dropping a set in his last three appearances here and looks a strong favourite again, but Coric and Roberto Bautista Agut have been 100-1 finalists in Shanghai in the last three years.

No player outside the top-six seeds has ever won it, so if that continues this year Djokovic, Roger Federer, Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev or Stefanos Tsitsipas will take home the trophy.

As you’d perhaps expect at a Masters 1000 it’s not yet been an event that qualifiers go well in, with none past the quarter final stage so far in the history of the Shanghai Masters.

 

Quarter one

Novak Djokovic’s record here and form in Japan in similarly quick conditions last week, plus his apparent recovery from the shoulder injury that wrecked his US Open, make the Serb a hot favourite for Q1.

The sternest test for Djokovic in Q1 is likely to come from Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has beaten the Serb before at Masters 1000 level on a hard court (Toronto last season).

The Greek showed in making the final in Beijing that he’s coming back to form a bit after a poor summer by his high standards on the hard courts and Tsitsipas seems the only one with a realistic chance of stopping Djokovic in this part of the draw.

John Isner has a weak record in Shanghai, where the pace off the court is good for his serve, but it doesn’t allow him the time he likes on his groundstrokes.

Alex De Minaur at 120-1 is the interesting one in this part of the draw, with the young Aussie having won the title in far slower conditions in Zhuhai recently, but like Coric and RBA the extra pace of these courts may help him to attack.

It’s a rough draw for De Minaur though, with Isner first up, then most likely Djokovic just to get to the third round.

Gael Monfils has done nothing so far this Asian swing and he usually doesn’t go well in this part of the season, with one quarter final appearance (no further) in his five tries so far in Shanghai.

Maybe Hubert Hurkacz or Felix Auger-Aliassime could feature on their best form, but it’s hard to see Djokovic losing in Q1 – he’s never lost before the semi finals here at the Shanghai Masters.

 

Quarter two

Djokovic has been beaten at the semi final stage four times at the Shanghai Masters and remarkably it’s the only round he’s ever lost in at this tournament, so if history is any guide, the winner of Q2 has half a chance of beating Djokovic and making the final.

And the obvious player to stop him would appear to be Daniil Medvedev, whose form over the summer since Wimbledon has been superb in winning 24 of his 27 matches.

The fast conditions should suit Medvedev as well, so he’s an obvious pick in Q2, but 4-1 is not exactly great value in the same half of the draw as Djokovic.

There are plenty of alternatives in Q2 in the event that Medvedev is running low on energy after a stellar few months and Karen Khachanov, Diego Schwartzman, Fabio Fognini, Andy Murray and Sam Querrey are all capable of winning this quarter.

It’s perhaps a bit too fast for Schwartzman, while Murray needs more time to be able to play four or five straight matches at this level, while Querrey, like Isner, hasn’t been able to find any real form here (7-7 win/loss in his career) so far.

It’s probably too fast for Fognini as well (7-8 win/loss here) and so perhaps Khachanov’s return to form last week in Beijing will give him the boost he’s been desperate for this season.

He won’t fear Medvedev either, but 24-1 to win it is too short for me on Khachanov in a M1000.

 

Quarter three

Roberto Bautista Agut would perhaps have been my pick in this half of the draw to repeat his great run of 2016 here, but he retired last week in Beijing with an abdominal injury and who knows if he’s fit for duty this week.

It’s likely to be too fast for Dominic Thiem here as well (2-4 win/loss in Shanghai) and the price I like here is the 90-1 about Matteo Berrettini, who played so well on quick grass in the summer.

The Italian is also, of course, coming off a major semi final at the US Open and while that could be a possible negative in the sense that he’s perhaps had a bit of a let down since, the conditions here should suit his big game if he can get it firing.

Jan-Lennard Struff is no easy starter for the Italian, but it doesn’t look the toughest quarter of the draw all told and the other option is Nikoloz Basilashvili at 200-1.

Basil won the China Open last year and has the power to take out Thiem in these conditions, but it’s always a gamble with Basil, who can be brilliant or awful on any given day with his high-risk play style.

But with Thiem vulnerable in these fast conditions and RBA perhaps injured I’m happy to focus on quarter three for my bets this week. The only problem, of course, is that the winner of Q3 will probably have a tough semi final.

 

Quarter four

Q4 certainly looks a lot tougher than Q3 on paper, with Roger Federer, Alexander Zverev, Marin Cilic, David Goffin, Borna Coric, and Andrey Rublev all candidates for the semi finals at least.

Although Federer won it as recently as 2017 his last three defeats here have come against Coric, Albert Ramos and Monfils, so he’s not immune to a shock loss in Shanghai.

And it’s fair to say that the summer hard court swing didn’t exactly go fabulously for Fed, who was beaten by Rublev in Cincy and by Dimitrov (albeit partly due to a back injury) in New York.

Indeed, Fed might face Ramos first up again this year, as he did in 2015 when the Spaniard took him out in one the biggest shocks of the season, or he may get Cilic.

Cilic has been in poor form all season long and while he’s occasionally shown glimpses of his old level the Croat hasn’t been able to sustain it for very long and he’s only won three straight matches twice since the 2018 US Open.

It’s certainly possible that Cilic could spring back to life here, where his game can be dangerous to all (he made the semis here in 2017), but I feel that if Federer does get past Cilic (or Ramos) in round one he’ll probably make at least the quarters.

Goffin has shown plenty of times that he lacks the belief to beat a fit Federer and his capitulation to the Swiss veteran in New York was little better than pathetic, while I could easily say something similar about Richard Gasquet.

Zverev showed flashes of a return to form at main level in Beijing, but the old frailties are still there, with Zverev losing in straight sets to Tsitsipas from *6-3 up in the opening set tie break.

Kyle Edmund looks bereft of any confidence right now and Coric doesn’t look in the form to back up his final run here a year ago, so maybe Rublev at 150-1 is the bet in this quarter.

He’s already beaten Federer on a lively hard court at M1000 level this season and while Coric is a tough round one draw Rublev is 2-0 against the Croat, who lost to Taro Daniel last week in Tokyo.

It’s obviously a long shot, but so were Coric and Bautista Agut and at 150-1 I’m happy to add Rublev to my portfolio here.

 

Conclusion

 

It looks likely that Djokovic (or maybe Medvedev) will make the final from the top half, but the bottom half looks quite open to me and the prices on Berrettini, Rublev and Basilashvili look the value.  

 

Best Bets

 

1 point each-way Berrettini at 91.0
0.5 points each-way Basilashvili at 201.0
0.5 points each-way Rublev at 151.0