Debrief
Daniil Medvedev was our latest outright to have made a deciding match so far in 2019 when he made it through to the Washington DC final and at the time of writing that final hasn’t been played yet.
The 2019 clay campaign ended in disappointment in week 31 when both of my picks were beaten from a set up in Kitzbuhel.
Marton Fucsovics failed with 13 of 15 break chances against eventual finalist Albert Ramos, while Leo Mayer lost from 1.13 in-play against Pablo Andujar.
Hubert Hurkacz struggled in the heat of Washington and was despatched by John Isner after the Pole blew a string of early chances against Isner, who himself was ousted in the next round by Benoit Paire.
Conditions and trends
We’re in Canada this week for the Rogers Cup, which alternates each year between Montreal and Toronto and this time we’re back at the IGA Stadium, where they play on a Decoturf outdoor hard court.
Montreal is usually regarded as quicker than Toronto, but last time the men were here in 2017 it was clocked at 36.3 on the CPI, which is by today’s standards is on the quicker side of medium.
The last four renewals here have featured an average of 38% of matches featuring at least one tie break and there have been 33% underdog winners in that time.
Alexander Zverev won it as a 12-1 shot in 2017 (beating 6-4 chance Roger Federer in the final), but that’s the only time since 2003 that Montreal wasn’t won by Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray.
Only Djokovic in 2011 has won here as a number one seed since Nadal in 2005 and the last qualifier to better the last eight was Anders Jarryd back in 1983 (lost to Lendl in the final).
Quarter one
There’s no Djokovic, Federer, or Murray here this time around, so taking the role of top seed in Q1 is Nadal, who won here in 2005 and 2013 and he doesn’t look to have a particularly tough draw in Q1 this time around.
Alex De Minaur may well be the first opponent for Nadal and De Minaur is in good shape, having won Atlanta on the hard courts a few weeks ago, but the young Aussie doesn’t really have the sort of game that should worry Nadal too much.
That said, it’s never easy to transition from grass to hard after a bit of a break as well and De Minaur would hardly be the easiest of opponents to face in these circumstances.
Denis Shapovalov beat Nadal the last time that the Spaniard played in Montreal, but I’m not seeing that type of player – the kind with the sort of power needed – in quarter one.
The likes of Gilles Simon, David Goffin, Borna Coric, De Minaur, Radu Albot all rely more on their movement and consistency and rarely does that sort of a player beat Nadal.
Fabio Fognini might fancy the job – as he usually does against Nadal – but the Rogers Cup isn’t usually the place to find a motivated Fognini, with the Italian not having won back-to-back matches in Canada since 2007.
Quarter two
This section of the draw is an intriguing one, with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Diego Schwartzman, Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut and Kei Nishikori all possible winners of this quarter.
At 100-1 in a field without Djokovic or Federer I might be prepared to take a bit of a flyer on Lamonf though, as he has played well in Canada before (semis in 2016 and a final set tie break loss to Bautista Agut last year, having taken down Nishikori).
He played very well early in the season on hard courts until injury struck in the quarters of Indian Wells and his hold/break total on all surfaces in 2019 is 110.9 – and that’s after this latest period struggling with injury.
On outdoor hard alone his hold/break total is 114.4 in the last 12 months at main level and we know he dislikes grass and wasn’t fully fit in that period, so I’m prepared to take a punt on his fitness here.
The Achilles has been the problem on and off for a while now, but at 100-1 I don’t mind taking a chance on his fitness.
Tsitsipas is the favourite, but is he fit after playing with heavy taping on his thigh in the Washington semi finals?
In any case Monfils and Tsitsipas have played a very tight three-match career series in which Monfils won in Sofia in February, then Tsitsipas prevailed in a final set breaker in Dubai a few weeks later.
Tsitsipas again won in a final set in Shanghai last year, so it’s not fanciful to suggest that if fit Monfils can be a big danger in this quarter.
Fritz has been in good form, but may be leggy after back-to-back finals in Atlanta and Los Cabos, but RBA, Schwartzman and Nishikori are certainly possible winners of this quarter.
Rarely do I find this current version of Nishikori much value at the prices he generally is and surely Schwartzman will come up against someone with too much power for him at this level on outdoor hard.
But Bautista Agut is interesting and he’s another one whose stats are very good for the season, despite missing some of it through illness and having to recover his best level.
Similarly to Monfils RBA started very well, winning Doha (beat Djokovic there) and making the quarters in Melbourne, then coming within two tie breaks of the Miami semi finals (again beat Djokovic).
Clay for me is probably RBA’s worst surface, so not a lot was expected of him there, but a semi final at Wimbledon was a clear sign that a return to the quicker surfaces was just what he needed.
He made the last eight here in 2017 (lost to Federer) and he beat Nishikori the last time they met (on grass at Wimbledon), so I’m happy to take a chance on RBA here at 40-1.
Quarter three
This looks another open quarter, with high seeds Karen Khachanov and Alexander Zverev looking very beatable.
Zverev has split with Ivan Lendl after a very forgettable period of working together and Lendl’s parting comments are rather telling when it comes to Zverev.
“I think that one day he may become a great player, but currently he has some off court issues that make it difficult to work a way that is consistent with my philosophy,” Lendl said.
His performances have been weak this year – as have those of Khachanov by and large – but I’m not really seeing a fabulous value bet to oppose the pair of them with in Q3.
Milos Raonic was moved from Q2 to Q3 when Kevin Anderson withdrew with the same knee injury that ruled him out of Washington DC, but I find it hard to fancy Raonic here, based on his woeful injury record mainly.
The home hope struggled again with his back in defeat last week in DC and his body hasn’t allowed him to go on a deep run this year at all, with the exception of Indian Wells and Stuttgart (withdrew there in the semis).
Grigor Dimitrov looks a pale imitation of a once very decent player these days – possibly due to an ongoing shoulder issue – while Stan Wawrinka hasn’t been able to find his best level for more than a match or two in a row since his comeback from injury at the start of last season.
Lucas Pouille has dropped off from his best level this season by and large, but is a possible option based on his Australian Open semi final run at the start of the year.
I think it’s asking a lot of Felix Auger-Aliassime just yet to win his home Masters, but perhaps Nikoloz Basilashvili has his confidence back and just could be capable of causing a surprise in this quarter.
He’s just beat Zverev en route to retaining his Hamburg title and last year after winning Hamburg he went on to win Beijing on the hard courts after a good run in New York, so perhaps Basil is the one for value here.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga isn’t the player he was and looks too short in price for my liking in this section (Basil beat him easily on clay a few months back in France), so Basil looks the one for a punt in Q3.
Quarter four
Another open one, with Dominic Thiem after achieving “one big childhood goal” in winning Kitzbuhel on Saturday a candidate for struggling back on a reasonably lively hard court.
The likely ones to take advantage of Thiem struggling – either with fatigue/lack of motivation or just as he often does on the quicker surfaces – include: Daniil Medvedev, Nick Kyrgios, John Isner, Marin Cilic and Matteo Berrettini, with Denis Shapovalov and Kyle Edmund on the ‘maybe’ list.
My concern with Kyrgios is that he usually isn’t fit enough to go deep in back-to-back weeks without some sort of ailment (either real or imagined) affecting him, while Isner hasn’t appeared to be close to top form or fitness since injury in March.
He did somehow win Newport, but he looked leggy again in DC and has never bettered the quarter finals in Canada, while former Montreal semi finalist Shapovalov has been struggling physically and mentally.
After losing to Ricardas Berankis at Wimbledon he said: “I’m feeling amazing in practice. So it’s all mental right now. It’s all coming from inside me. And unfortunately it’s not something anyone can fix but myself. But something subconsciously is happening for sure, and it shows in the matches. I’ll talk to [my team] a little bit, and maybe a psychologist.”
It seems to have worked for Kyrgios (so far), so why not Shapo? But in his home event the cracks might well show up again and he withdrew from DC with a shoulder injury, so maybe I’ll pass on him.
I’m not so sure that Edmund has the belief to win a M1000 yet, but Marin Cilic played well last week in defeat to Medvedev and on that form he is a viable option in this quarter.
He’s yet to really play well in Canada though, with only two quarter finals (no further) in nine tries and maybe he’ll be a better option in Cincy next week, but he’s tempting at 40-1.
Berrettini showed all grass swing that he’s a danger on a quickish surface, but he really was humbled by Federer at Wimbledon and that might take a while to get over.
So, Medvedev is the most likely option here, but he’s yet to make a M1000 quarter final on hard courts and had a shocker when he made the semis at this level on clay in Monte-Carlo, so perhaps there are too many question marks about him in this field at 11-1.
Conclusion
So. I’ll take a flyer on Monfils at 100-1 and trust Bautista Agut at 40-1 in quarter two, while 125-1 on Basilashvili looks worthy of a small interest, too.
They all have Nadal to beat of course, but Rafa has hardly been unbeatable in this tournament and with Djokovic and Federer not here it could be a great week for one of the bigger priced players.
Best Bets
1 point each-way Bautista Agut to win Montreal at 41.0
0.5 points each-way Monfils at 101.0
0.5 points each-way Basilashvili at 126.0
