Debrief
We’re getting no luck at all on the outrights so far this season, with a couple of painful semi final losers to go with two that have lost in the final so far in 2019 on the ATP World Tour.
Usually, they show up and lose at odds-on in the semi final, like Sam Querrey in New York, but Aljaz Bedene didn’t even make it to the court in Rio, with, as it turned out Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat in the title match.
In hindsight I put too much faith in the fitness of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Marseille, although I’m not sure why he took a late wildcard if he knew he wasn’t fit to compete, while Taylor Fritz was disappointing in the Juan Martin Del Potro part of the draw.
Conditions and trends
They play on a medium-fast Decoturf II court in Dubai, with Wilson US Open balls, and while the conditions are ostensibly quick here the thin desert air makes it hard to control the balls and it gets a lot slower in the night matches.
So, it’s a bit of an anomaly that despite the pace of the court Dubai features very few tie breaks – the fewest (26%) of any outdoor hard court tournament on the ATP World Tour.
One of the top-four seeds has won here every year since 2008 and a seed has won it each year since 2002.
Over in Acapulco they play on a slow Soflex outdoor hard court that bounces quite high and no top seed has won this tournament so far in its three years on the tour.
Sao Paulo remains (for the moment) on indoor clay with Wilson AO balls at the same venue as last year – the Constâncio Vaz Guimarães Sports Complex – Ibirapuera Gymnasium.
There’s around 750m of altitude in Sao Paulo and there were the same number of service holds in Sao Paulo as there were in Dubai last year and more tie breaks.
It’s moved venues a fair bit, but the last three winners were all priced between 6-1 and 7-1.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Roger Federer makes his first appearance since the Australian Open this week in Dubai when he tries to win his 100th career tournament and he’s our number two seed in the bottom half of the draw.
His path to what would be a 10th final in Dubai looks a fairly tricky one though, with a possible route of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco, Raonic, and one of probably Borna Coric, Tomas Berdych or Roberto Bautista Agut.
And it’s that latter trio that I like the look of for a hint of value if we are taking on Federer, which is a perfectly reasonable strategy given that he’s 37 and his most recent match here in Dubai was a loss to Evgeny Donskoy.
RBA has obvious credentials based on his win here a year ago and his good form so far this season in Doha and Melbourne, which was only derailed by sickness in Sofia that also made him miss Rotterdam.
Assuming he’s back fit and healthy again he’s my pick just ahead of Coric, whose form has been patchy so far this season and he looks to be having problems still with that forehand of his.
Berdych has a very good record here (112.4 hold/break total and 22-9 win/loss) but fitness is always a worry with the Berdman these days and RBA’s draw looks handy.
He should beat Ramkumar Ramanathan first up and then he’d face one of two players in Karen Khachanov or Nikoloz Basilashvili who for me don’t suit the conditions here, which require more care than either of them usually displays.
RBA has a good record against Khachanov anyway and the Russian seems to be struggling after a change of racquets, so I’m happy to go with the more reliable game of the Spaniard in these conditions.
Yes, he has a weak record against Federer, but he was unlucky against Fed in Shanghai last time and it’s slower here than there, which could well tip the scales in his favour if Federer gets that far.
Milos Raonic has never played in Dubai and the only ‘big server’ to have won the title in these conditions since his coach Goran Ivanisevic did it in 1996 was Andy Roddick in 2008.
I can’t see Raonic’s game suiting these conditions and looking now at the top half I wouldn’t be shocked to see a big-priced player make the final here, as Marcos Baghdatis (100-1) and Fernando Verdasco (66-1) did in 2016 and 2017.
These are tough conditions and will the very flat hitting of Daniil Medvedev prosper here? Quite possibly not and there are injury doubts surrounding both Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils and neither of those two have good records here anyway.
All of which leads me to take a small chance on Marcos Baghdatis at 150-1 in conditions he enjoys and while his fitness is questionable he has four matches in him at least – any more has proven beyond him of late.
That was the case in Montpellier a few weeks ago when he beat Lucas Pouille (last year’s Dubai runner-up) but he had to qualify then and at least it shows that his current form is decent.
Top seed Kei Nishikori is another debutant in Dubai and while his game should be fairly well suited to Dubai he has a tricky opener against Benoit Paire and as I’ve said many times Nishikori is hard to win with.
We profited a few weeks ago when backing Stan Wawrinka to beat Nishikori at odds of around 3.0 in yet another big match that he failed in, so odds of 7.50 don’t really appeal in a tournament he’s unproven at.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has a transition to make from quick indoor hard in Marseille to these tricky outdoor conditions in Dubai and he may well fail to adjust, so I’m happy to chance Robin Haase in the Tsitsipas/Nishikori section at odds of 125-1.
Haase made the semis here in 2017, losing in three to Verdasco, (could have won it in straight sets) and he beat Nishikori in their most recent clash as well, at M1000 level in Canada last season.
I definitely think this is an event for players with a good degree of control in their game and I’m happy to take RBA as my main bet here, with a couple of big-priced punts on Haase and Baghdatis to back it up.
Abierto Mexicano Telcel
I’ll wait until qualifying has finished before getting involved here, as the bottom half of the draw looks interesting, with Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe potentially worth taking on.
It’s another good quality field in similar conditions, but several of the big guns are coming here after a break since Melbourne and Sam Querrey won here at 90-1 a couple of years ago, coming through a section packed with the elite of the men’s game.
For now, surely Yoshihito Nishioka was too big at 200-1 and I've had half a point on that, with the Japanese player having shown ability in very similar conditions in the past at Indian Wells, but that price has gone now.
Brasil Open
Just one bet in Sao Paulo for me and that’s Albert Ramos, who looks to be just edging back towards a bit of form.
He’s in a part of the draw that features potentially fatigued players, such as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Pablo Cuevas and Laslo Djere, and Guido Pella has played an awful lot as well over the last few weeks.
Malek Jaziri has a lot to prove, too, in terms of his fitness – generally, but specifically on clay – and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the grinding types came through and that includes Ramos, Taro Daniel and Roberto Carballes Baena.
Ramos has a good record here, where he made the final in 2017 and the quarters last year (losing in a final set breaker to Nicolas Jarry) and surely 33-1 is too big about the Spaniard, with plenty of players with fitness doubts in the bottom half of the draw.
Conclusion
I’ll add possibly one in Acapulco at a later date after qualies, but for now the four below will be my outright wagers to start the week with.
Best Bets
1 point win Bautista Agut to win Dubai at 14.0
0.5 points win Haase to win Dubai at 126.0
0.5 points win Baghdatis to win Dubai at 151.0
0.5 points win Ramos to win Sao Paulo at 33-1
